Official bowl speculation / "How tan will I get this Christmas?" thread

Submitted by turd ferguson on December 2nd, 2012 at 12:03 AM

I'm not sure about a lot of this, but I thought that I'd start a thread to collect some news, speculation, and opinions.

Here's what's extremely likely: we'll play an SEC team in either the Outback Bowl or Gator Bowl.  With Nebraska losing, we're ineligible for the Capital One Bowl, since we have two fewer wins than Nebraska.  So either Nebraska or Northwestern will go to the Capital One. 

Then the Outback Bowl picks.  They'll choose between Michigan and whichever of Nebraska and Northwestern doesn't go to the Capital One Bowl.  If the Capital One picks Northwestern, the Outback has to pick Nebraska.  Then the Gator Bowl chooses, and they'll almost certainly pick whichever of the three is left.

Long story short: we're going to either the Outback (Tampa, Jan 1, vs. SEC #3/4) or Gator (Jacksonville, Jan 1, vs. SEC #6).

That means that we're playing an SEC team.  If you believe some reporting out there by the Atlanta Journal Constitution and Shreveport Times (links below), the SEC bowl picture seems to be clarifying.  It sounds like the Capital One will probably take Texas A&M (maybe for an old Big 12 battle vs. Nebraska).  They probably also like that they'll get the likely Heisman winner.

The Shreveport Times then says this:

The Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla., is next, and it is strongly in favor of taking No. 10 South Carolina (10-2). A logical place for the Gamecocks could be the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but that bowl is locked into No. 14 Clemson (10-2) as an opponent. And the SEC does not want a South Carolina-Clemson rematch after those two just played on Nov. 24.

Most projections I've seen have Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl.

So if you believe what's above and that the Big Ten is more unsettled than the SEC, we're most likely looking at South Carolina in the Outback Bowl or Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl.


Worth noting ----- It's very possible that all of this is wrong or premature.……



December 2nd, 2012 at 1:51 AM ^

A team from the north playing a team from the south in their backyard, no thanks. The structure is old. I'd be more interested in playing in boise against a different conference than being a part of another big ten embarrassment with all eyes on the s.e.c vs big ten scoreboard, especially this year.


December 2nd, 2012 at 2:08 AM ^

I seem to be hearing a lot of talk that Northwestern has the potential to be picked for the Capital One bowl or the Outback bowl, ahead of Nebraska or Michigan, respectively. Can someone please explain what the logic is behind this? Northwestern had a decent year, but when you compare their fanbase to Michigan's or Nebraskas... well it's not even close. In terms of TV as well as fans travelling to the game, Northwestern is a clear loser. Why on Earth would either of those bowls want them?


December 2nd, 2012 at 2:28 AM ^

Only reason they would have is Nebraska was in the Capital One last year and just got blown out in a neutral site championship game.  They might be thinking Nebraska fans just travelled to Indy and will not want to pay more money to see the same place as last year.  I would still take a depressed and unenthused Nebraska fanbase over a Northwestern "fanbase" everytime.


December 2nd, 2012 at 3:39 AM ^

I live in Orlando and had free tickets for the Cap One bowl IF Michigan was going to be selected. Friend works for Ticketmaster. Now it looks like the Huskers will be rewarded a better bowl, just after they got taken to the woodshed.


December 2nd, 2012 at 6:38 AM ^

It looks like Jerry Palm has updated these predictions, and his guess is that we go to the Gator Bowl to face Vanderbilt actually, a (right now) hypothetical game in which we would actually be favored by about an FG per Sagarin's model. Of  course, even this could be incorrect (he's never been 100% on all bowls), but we'll find out soon enough.



December 2nd, 2012 at 8:06 AM ^

While Jerry Palm predicts that Michigan and Vanderbilt will meet in what some of us old timers would call the G-E College Bowl, he also predicts that The Backyard Brawl will be played at Yankee Stadium this year. Now, THAT would be interesting.

. . . And bring back G-E College Bowl! Fight on, USC! Beat Barnard!


December 2nd, 2012 at 8:08 AM ^

So it looks like Outback vs South Carolina.  This is the same South Carolina team that gave up 35 to the Vols.  They can be scored on.


December 2nd, 2012 at 8:43 AM ^

Has that ever happened before?  Can't see that happening as if they do that they will end up in the Outback bowl against S. Carolina who they played in their bowl game last year.  The Outback almost has to take South Carolina. The drop from S.Carolina to Vandy is substantial. South Carolina can't go to the Chic-fil-a bowl as Clemson is locked into that.


December 2nd, 2012 at 8:30 AM ^

I really want to play against LSU or A&M. There seems to be a lot of comments hoping we play an easier team, but why not keep measuring UM football against the best? With the way next year's schedule breaks down, we may not play another ranked team until October or November of next season. Beating or playing close a highly-ranked SEC team will go a lot further than playing Vandy or MSU while losing to Vandy or MSU will be much worse than losing to LSU or A&M.


December 2nd, 2012 at 11:26 AM ^

One of the biggest reasons I thought ND was not going to be great next year is losing much of that o-line.  However, looking at their depth chart, most of the guys that step in are juniors, versus underclassman, and most are still pretty good sized.  All are over 6'4" and all are close to 300lbs.  And they have another year to put on weight.  Although not all of them are highly rated recruits, not that that always means a lot.  But, I guess I'm not sure what to expect of this group.  One the one hand they are all new starters, one the other they are all upperclassman next year and pretty good sized, although not all and high pedigree guys either.  But, I do think the production of this group, much like our team next year, will define how good they will be as a team.  For us, it's good we play them early as they won't have as much time to develop and will likely be better at the end of the year.  Although the same can probably be said of us.


December 2nd, 2012 at 9:35 AM ^

better we get a chance to beat Mississippi State or S. Carolina, where our odds are better. We can kill Mississippi State in the name of Willis Ward. 

Doc Brown

December 2nd, 2012 at 10:07 AM ^

Please please, I would rather play South Carolina in the outback. My wife's side of the family are all Gamecock fans. Could make for some fun (or not fun conversations...). 

Vandy = yuck


December 2nd, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^

While I think we have a better chance against SC without Lattimore, they are still a tough matchup for us.  Since we don't have a strong running game and they have a tremendous pass rush it may be difficult for us to move the ball against them.  I think we have a much better shot against MSU, but a win over SC would look much better.  I think I'd rather play SC assuming we have a respectable showing.


December 2nd, 2012 at 12:14 PM ^

must not have been watching SC post Lattimore injury."

Lattimore is injured in the TN game, which SC won. SC then beats Arkansas, Wofford, and finishes by beating #11 Clemson on the road 27-17.

Tell me again which top 25 team we beat on the road?


December 2nd, 2012 at 1:50 PM ^

OK - so you're saying South Carolina is so scary because they beat Tennessee, Arkansas and Clemson?  Who has Clemson beat?  They played two tough games all year and lose them both.  And South Carolina won 27-17, big deal.  They also beat Tennesse by 3 points, and Tennessee missed a bowl. 

Even with Lattimore, South Carolina barely beat Vandy, lost to LSU and got smoked by Florida.  After the injury, South Carolina eeked out a victory against a bad team, and then beat two teams Michigan would totally beat.  South Carolina looks like a Nebraska-level team to me.  I don't think fans need to have the "Michigan will go 12-0 every year" outlook, but it's really annoying when fans talk about us getting killed against non-dominant teams.