Notre Dame has 4th highest chance of making Playoff according to ESPN

Submitted by Human Torpedo on August 8th, 2018 at 11:52 AM

42%, behind only Georgia, Bama and Clemson. Your daily laugh of the day

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24310810/introducing-college-football-playoff-predictor-which-likes-clemson-better-alabama

Comments

mGrowOld

August 8th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

Wait this cant be right.  When it was announced we were adding Notre Dame to our schedule this year, on the road, I learned here on MGoBlog we were practically punching our ticket to the final four by doing so.  That only the manliest of manly teams would play a schedule like ours with as many tough road games and that once we won them all (prolly like 50-0 each time) then we would surely get invited to the playoffs.

 

mGrowOld

August 8th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^

Exactly.  Which is why smart football programs dont punch themselves in the face with a tough schedule.  Why on earth Michigan doesnt SCREAM to the B1G to move either MSU or OSU to an alternate year makes 0.0 sense to me. And then to add Notre Dame to the away game mix on the same cycle is playoff suicide IMO.

 

JHumich

August 8th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

Yes, and that huge effect is going to be that as we win one big game after another, we are going to put ourselves in prime position for the CFP.

Prognosticators do not determine the CFP. The committee does. And the committee has made it abundantly clear that resume is extremely important. So a better prognosticator might instead give ND almost zero chance.

Michigan is doing it right. And thankfully, we have a coach who doesn't shrink away from hard jobs. Out on that football field, the truth will be told. And, this year, I think it's going to be a truth that Michigan fans like.

Mgoczar

August 8th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

No they are not. 

Do the easy schedule. Look at Bama. Only now with good Georgia and hopefully a tougher Aurburn do they have an OK schedule. 

Play tomato cans and B1G. Don't shoot yourself in the foot with ND away game. With a strong team why the hell not get every advantage your side? I'm done with proving 'man ball'. Screw that. Blow through an ok schedule, get into CFP. 

This committe is stupid. They just look at wins. SoS my ass. Lower down the list of things considered if its a P5 team. 

grumbler

August 8th, 2018 at 5:48 PM ^

This is known as the "win at all costs" mentality and we chastise OSU fans for it.

College football players come to big-time programs to play in the big-time games.  Let 'em play in those games.  If you want a team that goes undefeated, root for UCF or North Carolina A&T.

mGrowOld

August 8th, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^

Sadly no they dont.  The committee has proved just the opposite over the past three years as they've consistently taken teams with much weaker resumes but better records over teams that played the rockem-sockem tough guy schedule who lost a few.

I dont know why people dont seem to understand what EVERY good SEC team figured out several years ago.  Schedule as many of your quality games at home as you can and schedule absolutely NOBODY out of conference that has any chance of beating you.  You do realize there's a reason the SEC keeps getting multiple invites to the final four while the B1G is on the outside looking in right?

No, Michigan most assuredly is NOT "doing it right".  They are making things needlessly hard on themselves and a win at Notre Dame in the opener (very hard game) will count just as much as a home win over Eastern Michigan would provided they win the others.  But a loss in that one coupled by just one loss in the following games means they're out: @MSU, @Northwestern, @OSU, Penn State & Wisconsin.  That's brutal and we're doing it to ourselves.

Rdog

August 8th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^

How about not playing Wisconsin for 6 straight years-      

I wish our current AD and coach were a bit smarter about playing the rankings and NC qualification game.

Why Michigan let the B10 screw us 2 years ago in the Ohio State game, saddle us with 6 years of the strongest B10 west crossover matchup, Ohio State & Michigan State away/home every other year, & play MSU 2 years away in a row after the new alignment is something I don't understand

Michigan is a great University with one of the strongest fan bases in College.  We deserve better treatment than this from the B10 conference.  Can you hear me Wade?

CLion

August 8th, 2018 at 11:58 AM ^

In their defense, they aren't saying they are the 4th best team. Because of the brutal B10 east and what should be a strong Wisconsin team, it's hard from an odds perspective to put a lot of money into any one B10 team even if you think there are 3ish teams from the B10 that might be better than ND.

Mr Miggle

August 8th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^

ESPN's algorithms are crap. They spew out forecasts like Michigan BB is the 9th best in the Big Ten in the upcoming season (after having them even lower last season). and ask their writers to justify them.

Does anyone really believe Notre Dame's chances of making the CFP are 5% less than Alabama's. 

Vegas, by comparison, has Notre Dame at 40-1 to win the championship. Tied with MSU for 12th best odds.

robbyt003

August 8th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^

They'll more than likely be favored in every game but @ USC, so it makes sense. (Assuming ND is the slight favorite in our matchup b/c of home field)

MgoHillbilly

August 8th, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^

Kinda makes sense if you assume that they would be the acc representative if Clemson doesn't get in. Same thing for Georgia/Alabama (notwithstanding the bullshit from last year).

jgoblue11

August 8th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^

Well, it isn't that far fetched. They return a pretty talented offense, a mobile QB with a good backup and should be more experienced on defense. Are they Alabama or Clemson? No, not at all. But ask yourself this. Are they better than Purdue? Michigan State? Maybe even Wisconsin? Yes, I think so. This is going to be a battle. At night. In South Bend of all places. 

This game worries me quite a bit actually. I hate playing these guys early in the season, especially the first game. Do I think we will win? Yeah, but that is because we have a stout defense returning and I think Harbaugh has to win this game.  There is a lot of pressure for Jim and Michigan to win a huge road game. 

This game reminds me of Florida last year. Big road game, (I know it was in Jerry's world but sill) against a decent ranked team. I hope we put ND away in the Third and walk away with a 21-10 type of victory.

If Notre Dame does win, I expect them to go pretty far until the end of the season. Who knows. 

If we can not run the ball, and our QB ends up on his ass and or is forced to make bad throws that end up being picked, well fuck me freddy! It's going to be a long season.