August 23rd, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^
I'm trying my hardest to temper my expectations... it's not working!!!
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:27 PM ^
I wouldn’t temper anything. Michigan we all know has a great defense. We have 2 running backs who can play. Our wideouts are a year older and we get Black back. If Shea is even serviceable compared to last year Michigan is in good shape. I mean, we all saw the games. It wasn’t like Ohio St, Wisconsin and Sparty were worlds better. Our Qb play killed us last year along with the line. I think we improved both.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^
This is basically the mantra that I keep coming back to every time and it always ratchets up my expectations. Like I started out "ohhh...the schedule is hard, probably not going to be good" and then I think of basically everything you posted and I'm like "well...maybe..." and then I think "yeah, but this team hasn't won many tough games on the road..." and then its "well...neither did Georgia and..."
tl;dr Sept 1st can't get here soon enough
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:38 PM ^
Temper them a bit. Obviously he’s an upgrade over what we had/have, but a big chunk of what he put up stats wise is due to the volume of pass attempts.
Our QBs last year attempted 346 passes in 13 games. Shea attempted 260 in 7 games. So let’s translate his efficiency #’s to the attempts our QBs had.
221/346 (63.8%) 3,010 yards 23 TDs (22.6) 12 INT (11.9)
Now the issue with translating his efficiency numbers at Ole Miss to Michigan is the fact that he averaged 8.7 yards per attempt at Ole Miss. Michigan is much more conservative so Shea would have likely been closer to the 7.7-7.8 that’s Rudock and Speight posted, giving him a more realistic 2,664 yards. Playing in a more conservative offense SHOULD limit his interceptions a bit too.
So if you’re expecting Shea to post his numbers from Ole Miss, then you need to temper those expectations.
But with Michigan opening the offense up a bit, Shea could post a statline where he’s around 2,800 yards, with 25 or so TDs and 10 picks or so and it would still be a really good year.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:00 PM ^
I like these numbers. I would be happy with these numbers. It's an improvement on Rudock's numbers (less yards but more TDs) and Speight's 2016 numbers.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:03 PM ^
You created a post that did not temper my expectations. Also your own expectations are not tempered based on what I just read.
August 24th, 2018 at 7:42 AM ^
Just depends on what your expectations are. You see some people saying he’s going to replicate his Ole Miss season. You see some people saying he’s going to New York for the Heisman ceremony. If those are your expectations, temper them.
If your expectations are a more athletic Rudock, you’re probably in the ballpark of what you’re going to get out of him statistically.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:15 PM ^
If Shea throws 17+ touchdowns passes and under 10 picks I’ll be happy. Anything that opens up our running game works for me. He doesn’t have to be mr air raid for us to win. He has a good deep ball and if we can hit the pass to DPJ deep and Black we open things up. We missed a couple deep balls last year to DPJ that could have put us back in games or took control.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:23 PM ^
If Shea throws 87 TDs and 2 interceptions we’re good, right? RIGHT???
August 23rd, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^
No. I can't accept 2 interceptions.
August 24th, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
What would the QBR be on that, ESPN?
Seriously, is that a good QBR? Like whatever the Weather Channel names winter storms or something.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^
While it's definitely true Ole Miss passed more it's also true M would have passed more if our QBs weren't... limited.
Edit: Also, Patterson doesn't have to be amazing for M to contend for the B1G Championship and CFP. If he's not an anchor, we're in good position. If he's good or better... shhhiiiiiiddd.
August 24th, 2018 at 7:52 AM ^
No, Michigan would not have passed more. Not by any significant margin at least.
We attempted 346 passes last year. 370 in 2016. And 414 in 2015 (with a bad running game mind you). The difference between passing attempts last year and with Speight as our QB (and in the top 25% of passing efficiency nationally) was 24 attempts. Less than 2 attempts per game difference. That’s not going to make much difference in the numbers.
If Shea stays healthy, he’s going to be right around the same 370-390 passing attempts that Rudock/Speight has.
And before you try to tell me Shea is a better QB so he’ll pass more than them, in Andrew Luck’s final two years he attempted 372 and 404 passes.
It doesn’t matter how good of a QB he has. Harbaugh does not air it out. Especially if he has a really good running game like we do now and like he had at Stanford.
August 23rd, 2018 at 8:35 PM ^
Something something *MY HARDEST*
goddam I can’t wait to watch Michigan Football
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:03 PM ^
Maybe?
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^
As a counter to that, he also threw 9 of those TDs against UT Martin and South Alabama.
Patterson is a very good QB. But he isn't going to be demonstrably better than last year's QBs if hos receivers don't hold onto the ball and his linemen can't keep him clean, two big problems last year. Hence the 3 QB sample size.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:19 PM ^
Seems like only 1 less interception in roughly half as many games is not actually a positive.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:23 PM ^
It is when you pass as much as Shea did
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:04 PM ^
Michigan's QBs combined for about 90 more passes last year than Patterson.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:10 PM ^
In 6 more games.
August 23rd, 2018 at 9:31 PM ^
Sure. But if we're talking about INT rate, that's sort of irrelevant.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^
True, though that also came alin bunches, as he threw 6 picks against Cal and LSU, the latter being when he was knocked out for the year.
Right now, the Rich Man's Tate Forcier label seems to fit, and that's probably a net positive for Michigan. But I just want to temper excitement a bit that he'll suddenly turn this team around.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:15 PM ^
Not sure if it is better or worse to have your picks come in bunches.
August 23rd, 2018 at 9:34 PM ^
The telling part for me was that the picks tended to come against good pass defenses and a lot of his success throwing the ball was against bad passing defenses.
Again, we are talking about small sample sizes so I'm not buying into it too much either way, but it does show the boom-or-bust nature he's shown thus far.
August 23rd, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^
He doesn’t have to turn the team around. Speight and O’Korn were awful, and Peters was only a bit better. Bad QB play was probably the difference in every loss except PSU. Patterson just has to be competent to make the team much better, and he’ll likely be far more than competent. I believe the situation calls for untempered excitement.
August 23rd, 2018 at 9:37 PM ^
To me, it's hard to believe that Michigan had 3 terrible QBs last year. I think Michigan had a lot of issues along the offensive line and in the receiving corps, and it manifested in 2 QBs suffering bad injuries and a third proven to be highly ineffectual when he couldn't run for his life. I mean, the one good O'Korn game was full of Purdue guys getting through but him hitting guys out of the pocket or at the last minute and getting some breaks.
Patterson is an upgrade, but I don't think he's the massive upgrade over Peters/Speight people expect. What will be different, I hope, is that the offensive line will pass block better and a bunch of first-year WRs will now be second-year WRs and will be better at route running, holding onto the ball, etc.
August 23rd, 2018 at 9:14 PM ^
True, but his completion percentage is still significantly higher. We can deal with an INT or 2 a game as long he's completing ~60% of his passes and not missing open guys
August 23rd, 2018 at 10:09 PM ^
As long as he does not throw a pick 6 to OSU and let them back into the game you are winning.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:22 PM ^
At least he was able to get great stats against inferior competition. Our passing offense looked poor against Cincinnati and Air Force.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^
Ole Miss also didn't break 4 yards a carry against south Alabama, UT Martin, or Cal. By comparison, Michigan averaged close to 5 yards a carry against AF, Florida, and Cincy.
They had different offensive philosophies, and my only point I'm trying to make is that to assume Patterson is going to replicate his performance in a completely different offense with different players might lead to some disappointment.
Is he more talented than any QB Michigan had last year? Sure. But he had the same issues surviving under pressure as they did, and people getting giddy because he bombed an FCS team and a bad G5 team while ignoring his struggles against better defenses seems foolish to me. He also didn't survive to the end of last year because people couldn't block for him consistently, and until proven otherwise o don't know if Michigan's line is some massive upgrade.
August 23rd, 2018 at 10:27 PM ^
Dude.
Internet is not for middle-of-the-road takes. Its all or nothing.
(Btw, I agree with you. Let the other peeps feel sad when Shea is not #UnstoppableThrowGod. Fuck yo' facts.)
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:24 PM ^
Yet we couldn’t rack up any TDs against Cincy, Air Force or Rutgers...
Every team plays weak competition. Those are part of the stats.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:29 PM ^
Fine. Then against P5 defenses he threw 8 picks vs 8 TDs and completed about 55% of his passes. So fine stats, but not world beating numbers and he had a much more accomplished set of receivers than he has right now.
August 23rd, 2018 at 8:15 PM ^
I can appreciate your sentiment, but would like to point out that he's also had 8+ months of tutelage from one of the best QB coaches on the planet. If he weren't a transfer, and was simply a returning starter, I think it would be extremely reasonable for fans to think this would be the year that he breaks through. His 2017 statline is the floor, we have no idea where his ceiling is.
August 23rd, 2018 at 9:43 PM ^
I agree with this sentiment, but I'd counter that both Wilton Speight and Brandon Peters had even more time being coached by Jim Harbaugh and their 2017-18 seasons were, at best, dispiriting.
I don't know how well Patterson will perform at Michigan; my guess is better than the 3 QBs last year because the whole team should be better on offense. But I just take issue with an info graphic featuring some highly context-dependent numbers being treated as gospel by some around here.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^
counterpoint: cincinnati, Air Force, rutgers, Minnesota.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:47 PM ^
Fair point, definitely a stat to drive the narrative, but he did throw more tds, which counts
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:49 PM ^
Yes, because our QBs last year lit it up against inferior competition last year!
Cinci 2 TD by Speight
AF 0 TDs thrown
Purdue 1 TD by O'Korn
Indiana 0 TDs thrown.
Rutgers 1 TD by Peters
Minnesota 1 TD by Peters
Maryland 2 TD by Peters
Our QBs were on the struggle bus all year long. At least Shea could light it up against crappy teams.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:47 PM ^
Ow, what painful memories.
I like it that Shea Patterson said Jim McElwain is involved with coaching him. Jus sayin....
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^
Cheese & rice...seeing it like that is really depressing.
August 23rd, 2018 at 9:36 PM ^
You have a valid point, but also bear in mind M's QBs only managed to put up 9 TDs throughout the season, which includes the likes of Air Force, Cincinnati, Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota - real powerhouse teams there. You'd expect a decent QB to get those kinds of results against poorer competition, and M had trouble accomplishing that.
Either way, the arrival of Patterson and Warriner seem like a very nice step forward.
*Edit* Oops, didn't see Truth's post, which made it painfully clear.
August 24th, 2018 at 7:00 AM ^
I always cringe at the 9 touchdown pass number and think back to the Florida game where Speight hit Crawford for a TD pass on a 4th down play which was called back and turned into a field goal because of the ref mixing up which TE was downfield. Also, the Wisconsin game where the ref, as well as the replay official, couldn't see DPJ gt his foot down in the end zone. It's not like there is a big difference between 11 and 9 but those were two touchdown passes taken off the board which should have counted.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^
No offense to the OP or the content, but I was really hoping this was going to be a UMbig insider update.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:06 PM ^
The numbers are better, yes, but the Total QBR gives me slight pause. 59 is better than what we had but it's still not very good. Would have been good for 7th in the conference last year, behind Penn State, OSU, MSU, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska. I'm hoping there's an outside reason for that.
Edit: Also a less than 2:1 TD/Int ratio is troubling but I'd already seen that number for Patterson. I'm chalking it up to their offense being pass first.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:12 PM ^
Their OL was garbage. Patterson is probably an upgrade, but if our tackles still can't pass protect and we have no idea what to do with a stunt, he's irrelevant.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:36 PM ^
Ole Miss also had no discernible running game.
Whatever Patterson looked like at Ole Miss won't be what he looks like at Michigan.
Might be better. Might be worse. But it won't just be a repeat.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:49 PM ^
And this is truly why I've been tempering my expectations until we can actually see Shea in action. He came from a completely different system so no matter how much film we watch of him at Ole Miss, it doesn't really tell us how he'll look in Michigan's offense.
August 23rd, 2018 at 6:59 PM ^
True. O'Korn looked pretty good when at Houston. Not so much at Michigan.
I feel like Patterson fits the offense better, esp seeing the offenses Harbaugh had at San Fran with Kap.
I remember going into the bowl game when everyone was confident about that game knowing we had a month to prepare and get better. Not so much. Deficiencies still evident. I have a quiet optimism and cannot wait to let it out.
August 23rd, 2018 at 7:06 PM ^
Hey, maybe he flourishes in our offense, goes off for 35 TDs, stomps OSU by 50 and wins the Heisman en route to our 1st National Championship this century. I'm just saying we won't really know until we see him the Maize and Blue.