No offer for AJ Carter? - Possible steal at RB

Submitted by fharajli on December 18th, 2017 at 4:24 PM

Hey everyone, I just came across a three-star running back from Louisiana named AJ Carter. He's currently only one spot ahead of Christian Turner and 27 spots ahead of Hassan Haskins on 247's rankings. Carter was incredibly productive in his last two seasons, in which he averaged 9.4 yards per carry and 0.15 touchdowns per touch. He's also a well-built running back, standing at 6' 0" and weighing around 220 pounds and runs a 4.5.

For the sake of comparison, Haskins, during his final two seasons, averaged 7.5 yards per carry and 0.10 touchdowns per touch. Carter's production seems to closely resemble that of a high four-star RB. I'm just wondering, since we're offering scholarships to lower rated players, why not at least go for the ones who were super productive in high school. This is not to say Turner and Haskins are bad players, but I think there are other players with the same rating who could be potential steals for Michigan. It's surprising to me that we haven't at least offered him a scholarship. I have more statistics and analytical data to back up that this kid is legit. What do you guys think? Here's are his highlights from 2016: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVYqssdfrUg

 

 

Before negging away, we are in a slow period right now and this is a forum. I think this is a valid discussion point. Share your opinions, that's what it's all about.

Comments

fharajli

December 18th, 2017 at 6:52 PM ^

I'm crazy because I base my analysis on statistics rather than just using the "tape" (the same tape that indicated to people that Shane Morris and Christian Hackenberg were better prospects than Baker Mayfield)? Then again, you would've been calling me crazy in 2013 if I told you that a 3-star QB (who only had offers from FAU, New Mexico and Rice) out of Lake Travis, TX would win the Heisman and end up being better than Morris and Hackenberg combined.

Lakeyale13

December 18th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^

Yes, you're crazy.  You were calling for how amazing Baker Mayfield was before he went to OK!?  You were predicting him to be the best QB in college football?  So somehow you found some tape that 40 of the best football programs in the country have somehow neglected?  If that is the case, quit whatever job you have and get hired by a football program to do their recruiting analysis.

fharajli

December 18th, 2017 at 8:14 PM ^

Keep doing whatever makes you happy. I'll give you something to keep track of over the next few years. I'm predicting that MJ Rivers and Jalen Mayden (both 3-star QBs) will have better careers than Joe Milton. Also, Charlie Brewer (2017 3-star QB) will end up having a better college career than Hunter Johnson (2017 5-star QB).

Lakeyale13

December 18th, 2017 at 9:51 PM ^

fharajli, I actually agree with you 100% on part of your post.  I beleive Joe Milton will never see the field at Michigan at QB.  He is an athlete of incredible talent, but as a QB he just seems to throw the ball up for grabs and with little accuracy (both of these compared to his peers ranked similarly).  Milton is a "project" as a QB, and currently Michigan has no time for projects.  

Lakeyale13

December 19th, 2017 at 1:29 PM ^

GetBleu, Peters and McCaffrey are not projects in any way.  They are bonafide quarterbacks that understand and know the position.  Joe Milton is not in the same ballpark as far as understanding the trade of quarterbacking compared to those two when they were Seniors.  Milton is crazy athletic, but seems to make plays by being a better athlete than anyone on the field and throwing the ball up to his teamate #12 who is a DI offered reciever.  Just look at the experts take on Joe Milton.  They echo the same thing.  His recruiting ranking dropped by more than 100 spots I beleive in the last release of the rankings.  

Wolfman

December 18th, 2017 at 11:26 PM ^

There can be nothing but speculation as to why he didn't receive an offer from UM, and I'm not going to tell you what I think because I don't think you're trying to be an asshole like many here and I think you're probably just looking for an answer.  That, however, won't come from the board and Magnus and a few others who are far more tuned into this than the rest of us are would probably be the only ones that could supply you with a reasonable guess but even they would not be able to nail it. 

Just know there are a lot of high schoolers, same size, same speed, etc.,and possibly same stats that put them up against much, much higher competition. Remember this kid's entire home town is less than 3,000 so his h.s. is not going to be that big and given his size, he's going to be roling over opponents on Friday nights and might be both the biggest RB and LBer in that league.  Think about, as well, commitments to UCLA, LSU and back again to UCLA. There have been many like him who find it almost impossible to say no to a recruiter and last one in the living room gets the commitment. This doesn't turn out too good. It does say he's good enough, in many coach's opinions though to play P5 ball, but knowing what I do about Harbaugh- same as you, what we read and hear from him in first person and those doing so 2nd person- this smacks of a young man, maybe a very nice kid but definitely lacking maturity or something that gives us no reason to put our hats in the circle. Remember, with the numbers out there, it's far more important for the young men to impress the schools than it is the other way around. Yes, Harbaubh takes chances and they'be been known to turn out pretty damn good. He's going to place high character first for a kid that ranks betwen 500 and 700 at his position, whereas if that ranking were between 5 and 7, chances are good high character might slide a bit but it'll always be a strong part of his criteria.

DrMantisToboggan

December 18th, 2017 at 4:26 PM ^

We have 2 RBs in the class and another lined up to drop. I will concede that people finally have something justifiable to complain about with recruiting if we take 4 RBs this cycle.

GoBLUE_SemperFi

December 18th, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^

...I do believe that your assumption, in this case, is wrong.  I would say that this is 100 percent just some dude perusing 247 and doing his very best to help Coach Harbaugh in anyway that he can.  Using the "sort" feature to the best of it's abilities, to find that diamond in the rough.  I just wish I would have thought of that.  Go BLUE!

fharajli

December 18th, 2017 at 7:27 PM ^

Again, I have no connection to Carter. I live in Michigan, he lives in Louisiana and I've never had a conversation with him. When I find a player that I think is being underrecruited, I like to talk about them on different sites. I've also talked on other sites about MJ Rivers, a quarterback from Lone Star Frisco High School who is currently committed to Illinois (he only has two Power 5 offers). I don't see what's wrong with liking a player and talking about them.

HAIL-YEA

December 18th, 2017 at 9:48 PM ^

You have no idea what the coaches are looking for in recruits. You seriously think you are finding recruits on that website that Michigan's football staff didn't see? We have like 20 or 30 people who do that for a living, you can like who you want but suggesting it like your opinion matters or acting like you know what kids will be stars in college is just stupid and makes me cringe just reading it.

Robbie Moore

December 18th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^

A player like this is available late in the process might be...wait for it...grades. Not saying it is the case with this kid but...maybe? And don't you think Harbaugh and company would know about it? They won't comment on anybody, recruiting target or not. We are left to peruse the recruiting services as a hobby.

fharajli

December 18th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^

So I'm supposed to not voice my opinion when I see my favorite team go after lesser talents instead of a player that, statistically, is closer to players like Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor, Royce Freeman and Nick Chubb than Haskins and Turner are? And remember that these "experts" on the staff also preferred O'Korn over Peters for much of the season. Coaches make tons of mistakes too. 

ToledoWolverine

December 18th, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^

Im gonna try to spell it out for you. 1. RB is not even a top 10 problem. 2. look at the NFL, how much of a teams collective resources are going towards the RB position? answer: comparitive to other position groups, not much. Its an easy hole to fill. 3. Fournette is a generational talent that was, iirc, a top 5 overall recruit. you are comparing apples to thoroughbreds. We are all here for discussion, most of us anyway, but this is about as irrelevant a discussion, that we can have.

 

thanks for playing, we will have some nice parting gifts for you.

Mr Miggle

December 18th, 2017 at 5:00 PM ^

then flipped back to UCLA within a ten day period this summer. Since then he has no reported offers, no visits taken or scheduled anywhere, including to UCLA. That's all pretty strange. 

In any case, did you miss he's committed to UCLA? It just seems random to suggest we go after a player at a position of low need, from an area we have no success recruiting, who's already committed and who has had a weird recruiting history.

Mr Miggle

December 18th, 2017 at 6:04 PM ^

He had a lot of good offers, including Wisconsin, is from GA, an area we recruit heavily and know the prospects. Sounds like the type of kid who values academics, which is a plus for Michigan.

Kind of silly to think someone is better because of their HS stats, when that's obviously comparing apples to oranges. Michigan just got a commit from a recruit that set Michigan's single season receiving record. It didn't make Ben VanSumeren into a WR prospect.

Haskins was a late offer. Obviously the coaches saw something in him as a rising prospect. He looks like a complementary back that could perhaps change positions.

I'll bet that Carter does not end up at UCLA. There are many reasons we may not have pursued him, but I'll pass on someone who's decommitted several times. I'll concede he does have a good reason to decommit this time. Our track record with those players isn't good.

Longballs Dong…

December 18th, 2017 at 5:01 PM ^

1. Why do you care about this kid - you must have a relationship with him personally.

2. There are 30 other RBs higher ranked, should we discuss each of those?

3. HS stats are mostly worthless on their own.

4. He's committed to UCLA already (and decommited from LSU)

5. Should we run through every OL that wasn't offered also?  There are a lot of HS kids.  Sometimes coaches just don't go after them.  We may never know why.  Maybe they sent this kid a letter asking if he'd camp and he said no and they stopped caring about him.  I have no idea but no one else here will know either.  It's a pointless argument. 

This thread would only make sense if this kid was publicly desparate to come to UM (and probably much higher profile). 

fharajli

December 18th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^

1. I have no relationship with Carter. I live in Michigan and he lives in Louisiana and I've never talked to him in any way. 

2. I've also looked at the other 30 RBs ranked above him. Some deserve the attention they're receiving, some are incredibly overrated and others, just as Carter is, are underrecruited. This is isn't so much about Carter than it's about acknowledging that every cycle, there are kids who are incredibly productive in high school and yet receive very little attention from bigger schools like Michigan.

3. Thinking "high school stats are worthless" is exactly what allowed Shane Morris, Wilton Speight and John O'Korn to suit up for Michigan. After compiling the stats of hundreds of players from previous classes, you're able to compare the numbers of current prospects with those of recent college stars and form an opinion based on how similar they are.

4. I know he's committed to UCLA. I just don't understand why, throughout the past two years, we haven't at least offered him. If we're gonna go after three-star players, this seems to be the kind of three-star player that could potentially end up exceeding expectations.

fharajli

December 18th, 2017 at 5:14 PM ^

There are plenty of scouts out there that haven't coached a day in their life. They just know what they're looking at. They know the numbers behind the production and can compare that production to the players who are at their peak. I'm not saying this guy is for sure. But there is a better chance he is better than Haskins and Turner, because he showed that high production level statically in high school. That typically translates to college. Baker Mayfield is a great example of that.

Longballs Dong…

December 18th, 2017 at 5:23 PM ^

"he showed that high production level statically in high school. That typically translates to college. Baker Mayfield is a great example of that."  I'd love for you to go through some top high school stats and show us how stats compare to college success.  Mayfield is an interesting case/recruit but he certainly doesn't prove HS stats = succes in college.  As noted below, the top 2 QBs in 2017 HS football aren't being recruited by anyone.  I didn't go further down the list looking up offers, but I didn't recognize any names until JT Daniels at #22 on the list.