NFL Draft Eve Debate

Submitted by Trip McNeely on April 25th, 2018 at 4:19 PM

Over the last few weeks I’ve had an ongoing debate with a few friends. What should the Browns do with the 1st and 4th picks?

I am on the side of take Barkley number one and then whatever QB is left that you like best. I know this is a little unconventional, but I have my reasons.

  1. It’s the Browns and you know that no matter where they take a QB in the draft he won’t pan out.
  2. There is no “sure thing” at QB in this draft. Now yes, I understand no draft pick is a sure thing but there are some players you know will at least be decent NFL players
  3. If you hit on Barkley and the QB you are set for at least ten years at two very important positions.
  4. It’s the first and fourth pick! There will still be a valuable pick at QB with the fourth spot. If it was the first and say 24th pick I would say take a QB all day long

I could go on and on, but I won’t. Just curious what people think the Browns should do with their picks? Do you agree with me? Should they take a QB first? Should they trade both picks for even more draft picks? I can’t remember a draft where a team had picks this close together this early.

Comments

Tom Snow

April 25th, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^

If you think all 3 quarterbacks are all equal. But if you think your franchise QB is there, you absolutely take him first. 

Honestly, Barkley is not this can't miss prospect that many are making him out to be. 

I think they take a QB at #1 and try to trade the #4 pick for several 2nd & 3rd round picks. Lots of depth in this years draft. 

Bambi

April 25th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^

If you think QB A is >>>>> than the rest, take A 1st. If A=B=C, go BPA 1 and then QB 4.

Barkley's a great prospect but I don't know I'd take him. You can find good RBs much later in the draft. I'd go BPA and QB and improve the team as much as possible. If Barkley is BPA than go him, but if it's close I'd take a guy like Chubb first.

Occam's Razor

April 25th, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^

Which QB do you take? Rosen (injury prone) Darnold (questionable decision-maker) Mayfield (scheme) Allen (why is he even rated this high again?) Jackson (durability and scheme) 

 

If this was the NBA, Lamar Jackson would be the #1 QB taken based on sheer potential. 

WestQuad

April 25th, 2018 at 5:40 PM ^

Everyone is hungry for QBs this year.  Lots of teams are going nuts over them, while some pan out, just as many don't.   I'd trade both picks for multiple picks this year and next.  I'm guessing they can get a first rounder this year and next plus an extra 2nd and 3rd round pick.  you do that with both picks and you're stacked on the rest of your team. 

Michigan4Life

April 25th, 2018 at 7:40 PM ^

tried to do by stacking roster with talented players yet he got fired because he passed up franchise QBs two years in a row. The Browns had a shit ton of draft picks but went 0-16 last season.  You cannot pass up a franchise QB because the worst thing you can do is your team is good enough to compete for a playoff spot but too good to be in position to take one.

The Browns have #1 overall pick and #4 overall pick, they have to take their guy.

WestQuad

April 26th, 2018 at 8:04 AM ^

I forgot about that history.  I've heard in the media that none of the guys this year are as good as advertised.  That there isn't an Andrew Luck or Carson Wentz.    Latest mock draft I saw has Allen and Jackson going 11th and 12th.  Unless you think Sam Darnold really is all that you could trade down and get one of those guys and another pick.   That said, with the Sashi Brown history you are correct.  They need to pick the highest rated QB available.  With Gordon and Landry they have a couple of decent receivers (when sober).  

ken725

April 25th, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^

Don't the Browns have tons of picks this year?

The experts say that this is a very deep draft class so a team could get some really great values in the 3+ rounds of this draft.

Browns will probably go QB with the 1st pick. I think your idea makes more sence to pick Barkley one and then possibly trade down with the 4th pick for extra draft picks.

boliver46

April 25th, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^

have heard this "draft two QB's in top 4" theory multiple places.

I don't see it happening.

Although the cost of rookies has gone down MASSIVELY since the "Stafford Days" - it still is a lot of dough to slot at the QB spot with the hope that one fails and one succeeds.

Plus - I get the whole let the best man win, competition angle.  But will either feel like it is "their team" with another highly paid QB making them look over their shoulder?

I can see them picking a 2nd one later on in the draft, but 2 in top 4 seems a stretch.

But...I digress.  I am a Lions fan.  So I know nothing about how these things called drafts are SUPPOSED to work.

:)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Michigan4Life

April 25th, 2018 at 6:52 PM ^

to draft two QBs. You don't want competition at QB in the NFL because one will always look over their shoulder no matter what. They won't get better as a player because they focused on holding onto the starting spot.

This is also a big reason why Speight regressed last season IMO. He was really good last season and played at an All-B1G level but was masked by poor OL play and non-existent run game.

If you have a competition at QB, you really don't have a good QB.

Kevin13

April 25th, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^

I think Barkley is going to be a long term stud in the NFL. Then you still will get one of the best QB's in the draft. I have seen arguments for taking 4 different QB's first, so I don't think you can go wrong with either Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Allen so one will still be there at #4.

RJM

April 25th, 2018 at 5:08 PM ^

be a great RB in the league, but that doesn't mean he will provide value commensurate with a top 5 (let alone #1) pick. In fact, the data suggests he won't: 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-why-drafting-saquon-barkley-…

The TL;DR of the above: running backs don't provide tons of value in the passing-heavy modern NFL. Moreover, 1st round RBs aren't statistically better than those taken in the later rounds. So: don't draft an RB in the 1st round.

wolverinestuckinEL

April 25th, 2018 at 6:43 PM ^

I have issues with those stats though. Their per carry rushing stats are basically team rushing averages, of course those would be similar. I'd like to see number of carries, that would tell a better story of who is getting the bulk of those yards. And the draft position for super bowl running backs is misleading when two undrafted guys played on two teams that won 7 of those championships. what is the draft position of the last 15 QB Superbowl champions? It's honestly not going to look much different yet they are arguing drafting a QB early makes more sense than drafting a running back.  I get that Barry Sanders and Adrian Peterson didn't win Super Bowls but I'm don't think drafting those guys was the reason their teams were unsuccessful.  The Patriots model is great, based on results it obviously works but that kind of all hinges on finding a Hall of Fame QB.

Michigan4Life

April 25th, 2018 at 6:53 PM ^

at roughly the same amount as kicker which tells you how much NFL valued RBs plus picking him at top 10 doesn't make financially sense because on 5th year option, they can earn as much as 20 million a year which is ridiculous for a RB.

jerseyblue

April 25th, 2018 at 9:44 PM ^

I'm a Giants fan and I do not want Barkley. As stated above it doesn't make sense economically.  I also can't see taking a RB with the #2 pick considering their shelf life. I'd like a QB because Eli probably only has 2 years left and we would have to give up a ransom to get back to this spot. They won't be bad enough to get back to this spot. They will be middle of the pack the next two years. If no QB then give me Chubb or trade down but no to Barkley.

Mike Damone

April 25th, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^

both running backs from Georgia, Chubb and Michel, will be available in the 2nd round, and we'll take the one that is a bust while the other one runs for 1,000+ yards next year.

You learn to live with these types of things as a Lions fan...

rockydude

April 25th, 2018 at 4:37 PM ^

Barkley #1, Chubb #4, then take someone like Mason Rudolph in the second round or wherever.

Keep in mind though, I'm no QB junkie. I think that the OL and RB often determine more of the passing game than the QB does. 

It's tough for me to say though, and I do like Chubb, that I would't go with that mauler OG from ND.

OwenGoBlue

April 25th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^

At the very least because of how it plays out in the workplace.

Scouts need to give reports to the front office on who they think is the best QB and why. The coach does the same. The GM gives a recommendation to the owner.

That recommendation for "which QB should we take after 20 years of QB failure" isn't going to be a shruggie emoji or nobody is justifying their job. Waiting until 4 to take a QB risks missing out on the top 2-3 of the QBs on the list, which makes the GM look very bad to the owner.

Even if they're enamored with Barkley they're not taking that risk when he's at worst a 50/50 chance to be there at 4 anyway.

ScruffyTheJanitor

April 25th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^

I am just hoping we trade back and end up with Mo Hurst, a LB, and a couple of offensive linemen. Anything else (like a WR, RB, DB, DE, SS.... damn, we suck) would be gravy.

BeatOSU52

April 25th, 2018 at 4:47 PM ^

Maybe I missing something, but is there no mock draft from Mike Mayock yet this year?  I see his big board rankings and stuff but don't see any mock drafts from him.  He usually has them in past years too and usually it seems be pretty accurate compared to others.

MichiganMan_24_

April 25th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^

I sound like such a dick but i cant hold back..It is total casual fan to say take Barkley #1

All the QBs are so different in both play and personality..you know what that means? Someone fits the gameplan that the offense wants to build around and the others dont fit.

We have waited and outsmarted everyone by taking the QB who slides..Quinn, Weeden, Manziel, Kizer, The other USC QB we took round 3 who even cares his name.

We cant wait and take the 3rd best QB..what if Rosen is there and he doesnt want to play in CLE? then you are stuck and forced to take a THOT

TAKE YOUR #1 QB with pick #1   P E R I O D

Then take Bradley Chubb if hes at 4 to align a nice DLine that can get after stiff QBs Ben, Flacco, Dalton

Then with the THREE picks in Rd 2 you go Left Tackle, Corner, either WR or RB depending who you feel better about re-signing between Duke J and Corey Coleman.

I would accpet a trade out of 4 if we can get both of Buffalo's 1sts this year and another next year ONLY if Chubb is gone.

Saquon is a stud but stud RBs are common and happen to be in this class to be taken in RD2

MichiganMan_24_

April 25th, 2018 at 7:21 PM ^

Be unhappy as i was with Manziel, actually even worse because its pick 1

To me Allen is the riskiest of the big 4

I rank them Rosen , Darnold, Mayfield, Allen with confidence in that order

Rosen doesnt want to play here so Darnold is our guy..I think Allen slips into the #6-9 range where a team like Buffalo or Arizona trade up for him

Solecismic

April 25th, 2018 at 4:52 PM ^

If anyone has a magic formula for evaluating QB future success in the NFL, he or she would make a fortune. There is a solution for the Browns' long struggle to find a franchise QB, most likely.

History suggests they won't find it. The numbers suggest two or three of the big five expected to go in the first round will be complete duds. The Browns' history almost demands that they select wrong.

Bill Polian made the Hall of Fame primarily because he made a good decision on April 18, 1998.

I think they have to go QB with #1. If Barkley lasts to #4 (I think he won't), the Browns get him as well and that could turn the franchise around. Otherwise, having to choose between Nelson and Chubb isn't exactly a booby prize.

So for Cleveland, the interest is in which quarterback and why. It'll be years before we know if that worked out. But the Giants are more immediately interesting. Do they take Barkley or do they get Eli's replacement?