New hope for double bye in Big Ten tourney (thanks, Illinois)

Submitted by Human Torpedo on February 18th, 2018 at 6:33 PM

Nebraska just lost at Champaign, dropping to a tie with us for #4 spot, with a game vs Penn State in the finale. Should we win out that could be a game to keep an eye on next weekend

Comments

Jordan2323

February 18th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^

A season. Times like this is really can come back and haunt you. Almost like playing a second round bye. Not whole lot of difference in two or three games imo.

bronxblue

February 18th, 2018 at 6:42 PM ^

I said this is another thread, but it's pretty weird that the #5 team in the conference started the day solidly in the field and the #4 team was out of the tourney and would need to make a little run in the BTT to even get in.

Also, losing to Illinois now basically submarines the Cornhuskers unless they go deep in the conference tourney. Like, they would probably need to get to the title game to feel reasonably confident they are in.

A Lot of Milk

February 18th, 2018 at 7:27 PM ^

Big ten top four against itself:
1. Molestation State: 1-2, last second home win against Purdue, blowout road loss to osu, home loss to Michigan
2. OSU: 3-1, blowout win at home against MSU, home win against Michigan, road win at Purdue, road loss at Michigan
3. Purdue: 2-2, two single digit wins against Michigan, road loss to sparty, home loss to osu
4. Michigan: 2-3, road win at MSU, home win against osu, two close losses to Purdue, loss at OSU
Summary: sparty had the easiest path and still might fuck it up. Props to osu for playing a real schedule and actually winning some games. Purdue chokes; what else is new? Michigan got screwed again in the scheduling: played road games against top three teams and played two top three teams twice.

bklein09

February 18th, 2018 at 6:46 PM ^

I don’t think it’s that weird. How does Nebraska’s non-conference record compare to ours?

Who did they play?

How does their conference schedule compare to ours?

What are their big wins?

Just because they have a better (and now identical) conference record, doesn’t mean we’re equal in terms of tournament resume.

bronxblue

February 18th, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^

No, but usually you'd figure the #4 team in a major conference wouldn't be so far behind the team sitting below them in the same conference.

And their OOC wasn't demonstrably different than Michigan's except Michigan has those two wins against UCLA and Texas that are just decent enough and their worst loss (UCF) isn't as bad as Michigan's (LSU). But apparently UCF lost a bunch of guys to injuries this year, and Nebraska did put up a fight against Kansas and Creighton.

It's not that I don't understand why the two teams have different tourney outlooks, but it's a little unqiue to see the team with the same conference record and a 20-point win over Michigan be decidedly out of the tourney while Michigan is fighting for a top-6 seed.

TrueBlue2003

February 19th, 2018 at 12:10 AM ^

they were that far behind us before today.  They were widely regarded as one of the first four teams out.

We're on the 8/9 line but possibly the 10 or 11 line depending on how much the committee cares about RPI and record against Q1 and Q2.

So there's only 10-15 teams between us on the S-curve and it's bunched pretty tightly in that area.  Not that crazy considering our far more difficult conf-schedule and their poor/unlucky non-conf.

RobM_24

February 18th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^

Would it benefit us to get an extra win as opposed to the double-bye, or does a neutral court win against a bad team do nothing for your resume? (Obviously winning it all would help the most, and the double-bye would help the odds of that happening)

TrueBlue2003

February 19th, 2018 at 12:56 AM ^

is the potential of them dropping out of the top 75.  That's something we don't want because the game against them would go to Q2.

I don't think we're winning twice this week, so today's loss for Nebraska probably did nothing but move them closer to being out of the top 75.  They almost certainly won't lose two home games this week.

Worst case scenerio (and the most likely) now is that both teams go 1-1 and M still gets the 5 seed but Nebraska risks dropping out of the top 75.

And Illinois still has almost no chance of getting into the top 160 to make our home win over them a Q3 game.

Btw, the low key worst outcome of the weekend for M was Iowa losing at home to IU.  Had Iowa just held serve, they'd be in the top 135 and our road win over them would be a Q2 game. As it is, they dropped to 157th and that game is solidly a Q3 game and the home win over them is in danger of becoming a Q4 game (160+ home games are Q4). Ugh.

MH20

February 19th, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^

Nebraska is currently 60 so they'd probably have to lose both their remaining regular season games to fall below 75, which is highly unlikely considering they're both at home.  A bigger threat to drop, IMO, is Maryland, currently 67th.  Their remaining schedule is difficult: @ NW and home vs. Michigan.  A decent chance they go 1-1 (that's what KP predicts) and it's not crazy to see them losing both games (although McIntosh may still be out for NW).

Your point about Iowa is valid and a real bummer.  IU is locked into Q3 for Michigan since it was at home so they could've dropped 40+ spots and still been in the same quadrant.  Iowa at home is on the cusp of being Michigan's 10th Q4 victory, i.e. basically useless.

Another team that I had hopes for that hasn't come through for Michigan is VCU.  They've been mostly a dumpster fire since Maui, bottoming out in both RPI (136) and KP (158(!) after a 24-points loss to 11-15 GWU).  Was hopeful they could have a decent year and find themselves in the top-100 to give Michigan a Q2 win.

Lastly, Wisconsin is currently 134 (Q2 road cutoff is 135), so...I know we like to hate the Badgers' awful style of play and former coach, but we really want them to win out.  If they could steal a Senior Day victory over MSU, that would be tremendous.

ST3

February 18th, 2018 at 6:58 PM ^

Considering how Delany messed up the schedule, I'd prefer the extra game to keep sharp, but I don't think it matters. Watch all the Big 10 teams playing from behind in the Tournament as they shake the rust off.

TrueBlue2003

February 19th, 2018 at 12:38 AM ^

between the BTT and NCAA's it would help, but coming the Thursday before the BTT doesn't do anything the change the fact that we'll have two weeks off before the NCAA's.

Anyone know if we scheduled the limit of games allowed this season?  I would love to schedule a home game that weekend against a winner of a low-major conference if we can.  Would benefit both teams to stay sharp.  Could even help our RPI if it's a team with a good record.

Would be a good chance for Warde to actually do something other than this:

Goblueman

February 18th, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^

with 2 wins,if I'm mot mistaken.Getting a double bye is important imo because Mich avoids playing the more rested team after 1st game.Potential Semi game with MSU on Saturday,prefer that being our 2nd game rather than 3rd in 3 days while MSU playing only 2nd game.Yes I know I''m getting way ahead of myself but fuck msu ,I want them to not have the extra days rest.                                                                                                                             

Edit: PSU has 3 games left,play @Purdue tonight

tlo2485

February 18th, 2018 at 7:09 PM ^

Unlike years past, we don't need an extra win against Minnesota, Illinois, Rutgers, or Iowa this year. Take the rest and go after Nebraska either way in round 2. After that is the winner of 1 vs. 8/9. Right now: MSU or Maryland/NW. Big ten isnt even close to deep enough for it to be to our advantage to play anyone below Penn State/Maryland level as far as NCAA seeding goes. In our position, the potential loss to a bad team would hurt WAY more, IMO, while having no benefit.

amir_6

February 18th, 2018 at 8:12 PM ^

I know.. We were probably locked up for the tourny even before the OSU game. If anything the win moves us from the 7/6 to the 6/5 if we win out and have a good showing in the BTT we might be talking about a 4 seed. NEED to finish strong, @Penn State & @Maryland are no gimmes.