Nebraska a 4.5 fav at Michigan
So on a neutral field Neb is 7.5 better then us? For that and for it being your first day in the conferene I say F you Nebraska.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2011/06/michigan_wolverines_links_26.html
Whats worse?
You pay attention to November spreads in July, or that they HAVE November spreads in July.
This takes me back to a few years ago when I had a big gambling problem. It is normal to look at spreads months before the games are played. It is stupid and totally ridiculous. Im glad I learned my lesson and can now see that.
Nobody knows what the teams are going to be like in September, let alone November. You can study and look at all the spreads as early as you want, it wont help. lol at least it didnt help me.
While there are problem gamblers, it's certainly not ridiculous or stupid to bet now or at any other time as long as you understand and are willing to assume the risk. The professional gamblers who are jumping on the spread now aren't saying that they are better informed now than they will be months from now, they're saying that they're well enough informed that they think they acn beat the vig over a long period of time by betting now. It seems obvious, but I think a lot of people who gamble recreationally even the ones that do it alot have the mistaken impression that spreads are a prediction of the score of the game. They sort of are, but only in the sense that Vegas is trying to have an equal amount of money on both sides, so they can take the vig. If someone bets now they just think that they have an edge. No matter how slight in the long run any real edge turns out to be profitable.
My 20 year old is a diehart nebraska fan and he thinks it's 24 points nebraska, so bet heavy on kneebrass.
Predicting the outcome before the games are played ... Ask the Miami Heat how that went Vegas
Well... thats ok. That's called gambling.
But predicting the outcome AFTER the games are played is somewhat less of a challenge
Not all the time. See:
OSU v Miami
Michigan v MSU
et all.
I'll take the 4.5 point spread. I think this could be one of, if not our hardest game next season, and to see that we are just a 4.5 point underdog isn't that bad.
While we got a huge upgrade in GERG-to-Mattison, the defense did give up 35 points a game last year.
Mattison and the new inflow of defensive talent will get that corrected eventually, but anything approaching an average D will be a coach-of-the-year like job.
but even realigning and motivating the kids we already have on defense will make a huge difference. Going from 3 down linemen last year to 5 down linemen at times in 2011 will have a dramatic impact.
sry LOL
It is totally normal to look at spreads this early. Prep work and summer number crunching is how you win dough
Anyway, this line opened up as Nebraska -1. Like every Michigan line available right now, gamblers are hammering the other side. Nobody is betting Michigan in the early going. Gamblers dont trust new coaches changing systems and the specter ot last year's 0-8 ATS season in the Big 10 (not to mention Michigan being the best bet against team the last three years running) has peeps scurrying for the other side. At least for now.
Phil Steele?
I agree lol Fu$k Nebraska ....
a) We should be nice for at least the first day they're in the conference.
2) I don't think "Fusk" is a word.
d) Stay classy, San Diego.
been paid to Nebraska entering the B1G well, deservedly so because of their good last season in the Big 12. Their "mystery" quality speaks to them being favored more than statistical data, and insight, though. We all know why we like Michigan for 2011, while this is not a knock on Nebraska, (they will be a very good team in the B1G even in 2011) I have a few reasons why the Michigan-Nebraska game will be more of a tossup IMO.
They return only 11 starters (one of the fewest in the country.) 4 on offense, 7 on defense. (Both CB's and 1 Safety were drafted.)
They also lose their offensive coordinator. This will be the first year with a new OC.
They don't know who the starting qb will be. It's somwhat of a tossup between several guys who played last year due to injuries/inconsitancy.
Last years top rushers were Helu and Martinez. Martinez might not start next year and Helu was drafted. Last years top passer was Martinez as well, this is a rebuilding offense.
Nebraska has a tough road series in the B1G this first year scouting every team for the first time with a target on their backs, while we get them at home near the end of the season.
While Nebraska has had great records in the Big12, they didn't have the strength of schedule the B1G does. Other than Nebraska only 2 Big12 schools have won more than 1 National Championship, (Colorado won 1990, A&M won in the '30s.) Other than Nebraska 6 B1G schools have won multiple National Championships. (Iowa won once in the '50's) I would love to play Kansas, KState, Baylor, OKState, and Iowa State every year and take UConn or Washington in a Bowl Game.
Last reason was the last season. Nebraska had a 10-4 season, but lost to a very mediocre (5-7) Texas, as well as A&M, and Oklahoma where Martinez played all 3. They also lost their Bowl Game to an opponent they beat earlier in the season on the road @ Washington. In the Bowl Game they only scored 7 points. This year they take a step back from last year after losing so many starters.
you've really taken the time to study our team--way to go.
The strength of the team will again be defense, which I think will be one of the B1Gs top units. Nobody know what to expect of the offense, for many of the reasons you pointed out.
I think most of the pundits figure the offense was so weak the last two years it has to improve so therefore the team will have a better year. Sort of a mirror opposite of UM, where the offense has led and will again be very good, and a new defensive coordinator should make that unit at least respectable.
The one area people overlook with us is special teams. We lost one of the best college placekickers/punters of all time, Alex Henery, who was drafted, rare for a kicker. There's sure to be a dropoff there.
I've said several times on this board that Mattison was a huge get for UM. I predict your defense will improve to be at least decent this year, getting coached up much like Pelini did his first year at Nebraska.
The whole B1G, both divisions, is up for grabs. Most Nebraskans are confident that we'll be competitive for winning our division, no more, no less. But you could say that about everyone but Minnesota.
Saying "our offense was so weak it must improve" is not a good line of thinking, especially when losing 7 starters, because even if those starters weren't that good, they were better than whoever they were ahead of. Also, you're moving from a league that plays very poor defense to a league known for its defense, and that's not something that will make your poor offense look any better.
You better hope your defense holds every opponent to 15 or fewer points or you won't win those games.
I just meant that's a lot of the pundits thinking.
On the plus side, our QB was a true freshman last year, and injured half the season. If uninjured, big improvement is expected from Martinez, who broke several school records last year.
also, our OL has been transitioning from a pass-block WCO to more of a smashmouth/run/spread scheme the last 4 years since Pelini took over. There's been a lot of emphasis in both recruiting and coaching hires under Pelini to move the needle in this area. Although there's nothing concrete to indicate this is the year for improvement, most pundits and Nebraskans are optimistic.
But we'd have no problem winning by holding our opponents to under 15 :)
I wonder if UM's D will be seriously improved....much less your kicking game? Or if Denard will do well in the new offense? Very much a crapshoot this year handicapping the Big Ten teams.
it's front 7? If it does then that definitely skews things in Nebraskas favor for the 2011 season. Defense puts a team in any conversation.
as we lose only 1 starter. We're returning Crick, Stenkuhler, and Meredith, who were either All-American or All-BXII. Throw Peat (FR) in for good measure. Defense will definately be the strength of the team.
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/28630/big-ten-position-rankings-defensive-line-3
That 3.5 points is a MASSIVE swing too. You're crossing both the 3 and 3.5. But to be honest I wouldn't be shocked if the line moves further. In fact, I like Nebraska at -4.5 now and then go ahead and buy it back if it gets beyond 6.5 if Notre Dame comes in and beats us handily, which while improbable is certainly not impossible.
I'll be glad when playing in the Big Ten shows how overrated that Nebraska is.
When does Penn State switch from "dominating" the B1G to "returning to glory" or "rebuilding" in the B1G?
Michigan has Ohio the next week. I can't see them having enough emotional energy to pull this one out, unless the defense manages to get really good, and the offense is clicking by the end of the year. I have this one as an "auto-loss" in my contribution to prediction threads.
As long as the Wolverines beat Ohio the following week, neither they nor any of the fans will care about a loss to Nebraska.
I can't really argue with it. We have not been competitive with the big boys lately. We've got to earn the respect back.