ND Currently a 4/4.5 Point Favorite for Saturday

Submitted by bklein09 on September 5th, 2011 at 4:37 PM

Not sure if this is thread worthy, but I heard the line moved from ND -3.5 earlier today to where it is currently.

IMO, this is the perfect situation.

ND lost last week, which I was thrilled about.

But they are still the favored team coming into the Big House and a particularly hostile environment.

The pressure is on ND more than ever now, considering they are still favored, can't afford to go 0-2, don't want to drop 3 in a row to us, and have a coach that may murder them in their sleep if they make a mistake. 

Michigan on the other hand has the home-field advantage and can continue to feel like they aren't getting any respect. I'm really hoping that they come out and play fast and loose on Saturday.

I think the game will come down to whoever makes the fewest big mistakes. And hopefully all of these intangibles will result in that team being Michigan.

Comments

dennisblundon

September 5th, 2011 at 4:48 PM ^

We didn't cover many games at all last year and none at all down the stretch. The betting public hasn't forgot this and the line reflects this. I think with so many question marks for both teams still I would have made the line Michigan -2, only because we are the home team. At this point the pubic doesn't even know who ND's starting QB is.

jtmc33

September 5th, 2011 at 4:48 PM ^

500+ yards against any BCS program (be it Big East or not) scares the crap out of me. And giving up career numbers to a MAC wideout the week before playing against Michael Floyd scares the piss out of me.

Time for out D to make a (positive) statement - time to pound Rees/Crist and force them to throw off their back foot all game.

I gotta fever, and the only prescription is MOAR BLITZING

MGoBlue96

September 5th, 2011 at 5:08 PM ^

94 catches for 1378 yards and 10 tds last year. Granted Michael Floyd  is more talented and our secondary will have it's hands full trying to contain him, but White wasn't exactly some nobody.

I would also like to point out that Michigan did a decent job of keepng Floyd in check in last years meeting.

HAILtoBO

September 5th, 2011 at 4:49 PM ^

This is seriously such bs. We never get the respect we deserve, I can't wait for Hoke to pull out his playbook and show kelly how to coach a football team. In the western game Hoke didn't show much. All that he showed was is they do have running plays for Denard. He played very basic football with running the ball up the middle and the occasional pass plays. Our D came out at first and struggled but once that rain hit they went to work. We just gotta double team floyd and we shouldn't have any problems with beating the irish.

orobs

September 5th, 2011 at 4:56 PM ^

Sorry, but what have we done to deserve respect?  Although we beat Notre Dame last year, they finished the season on a much higher note, and beat a respectable opponent in their bowl game. We aren't entitled to anything, and if we want respect, we better earn it.  Beating Western doesn't do this.

samber2009

September 5th, 2011 at 4:52 PM ^

I rarely pay attention to the spread for this game.

year

Away

points

Home

points

Homeline

2010

UM

28

ND

24

-3.5

2009

ND

34

UM

38

+3

2008

UM

17

ND

35

-1

2007

ND

0

UM

38

-9.5

2006

UM

47

ND

21

-6

 

samber2009

September 5th, 2011 at 6:27 PM ^

I guess I'll highlight the decade, but I was just trying to point out the spread hasn't mattered the last few years, but here you go.

 

year

Away

points

Home

points

Homeline

2010

UM

28

ND

24

-3.5

2009

ND

34

UM

38

+3

2008

UM

17

ND

35

-1

2007

ND

0

UM

38

-9.5

2006

UM

47

ND

21

-6

2005

ND

17

UM

10

-8

2004

UM

20

ND

28

+10.5

2003

ND

0

UM

38

-9.5

2002

UM

23

ND

25

+5.5

1999

ND

22

UM

26

-7

 

colin

September 5th, 2011 at 10:10 PM ^

my point was, that's not how it works.  i doubt the variance in results in this series is any different than any other given series between two football teams with a similar overall spread.  the spread is just as telling as usual.  there's no special hoojoo that makes Michigan-Notre Dame crraazzaaayy and unpredictable.

Jivas

September 5th, 2011 at 4:57 PM ^

If that's the case, then the line has moved quite a bit today in ND's favor.

I've had the game as 50-50, but the line has me a little concerned that our true odds are a little less than 50%.  Of course, if we win I won't give 2 shits what our true odds were.

BlueDragon

September 5th, 2011 at 5:00 PM ^

Less the 3-point home advantage, this means ND is favored by a touchdown.  They're just trying to get more money on the game.  I'm interested to see what happens with ND's ranking this week, though.  That's traditionally been a giant bull's-eye for M-ND games, what with all the upsets the higher ranked team seems to suffer and all.

bklein09

September 5th, 2011 at 5:24 PM ^

I think the line moving is based on tons of people betting ND despite last week because of all the "mitigating factors" of their loss.

Every single ND fan's post I have seen since their game seems to be chalking the loss up to a fluke that says absolutely nothing about the quality of their team.

I won't argue that the cumulation of events that occured in the USF game is unlikely to happen again.

However, that doesn't mean that some of NDs mistakes were not on them.

The bottom line is that the QB who earned the starting job for them over the summer is now on the bench. I know Rees wasn't far behind, but Crist obvisouly looked better in the off-season. 

And as we have all seen over the past 3+ years, things like muffed punts, fumbles, and dropped passes don't just disappear overnight. 

They also missed a FG, and although their kicker is normally very good, we know that kicking is a mental game. He has to have just a little less confidence in himself now, and that could be just enough to produce another miss in a hostile environment. 

BlueDragon

September 5th, 2011 at 5:31 PM ^

After ND's first touchdown, Tommy Rees got into a pushing match with another player on the sideline.  I think Kelly's methods are setting his players against one another.  I don't think he's in any danger of losing the locker room, but it can't be good for the team when the "Leaders" of the team are facing serious challenges from their subordinates.

Also, if your run defense can't stop a Big East team, that's bad.

BlueDragon

September 6th, 2011 at 3:19 AM ^

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/observations-usf-notre-dame-game

From 2. Notre Dame Defense:

a. They had some trouble with BJ Daniels, a mobile QB. There were some times he scrambled 5, 6 yards to pick up the first. If it was Denard scrambling on those plays, he could have easily gone for 20.

c. ND’s run D was nothing special. They only allowed 3.0 yards a carry, and 126 yards rushing but I think if you looked at rushing outside of the red zone, YPC would jump up. It felt like USF was running the ball for 4, 5 yards outside the red zone but once they got in the red zone, they were stopped.

g. My ND friend said the D line was not good enough to stop the run until they got to the goal line, and on passing downs they didn’t get much penetration.

Swazi

September 5th, 2011 at 5:22 PM ^

Really?  With how poor they played and how well we plaayed THEY'RE the favorite?  Especially with it being at Ann Arbor for the first night game, so the crowd and our kids are going to be extra amped.  But, whatever, I'll take another upset win over the Irish.

One Inch Woody…

September 5th, 2011 at 7:31 PM ^

I don't mean to burst your bubble but we didn't play quite so spectacular. We played passable. Against WMU, which is around the same level as many Big East/ ACC teams but nowhere near the level of Wisconsin, Ohio, or Michigan State. I think we will still win but due to the atmosphere and heart of our players and our coach.

Promote RichRod

September 5th, 2011 at 5:52 PM ^

I'd still be keeping my money on the sidelines here.

I feel like we should have a really solid homefield advantage and we will be plenty amped vs. ND being pretty demoralized.  At the same time, I just don't have a good feeling about this one.  I think ND will clean up its mistakes in a game like this and they clearly have a lot of offensive firepower.  The passing spread vs. our secondary is scary.  We also looking terrible vs. the run against Western.

ND shut down our non-Denard offense last year and let Denard try and do it himself (by design, which was dumb on ND's part).  Denard was more than happy to oblige.  No reason to think they can't do that again and force Denard to beat them by himself.  Will Borges/Hoke be willing to lean on Denard if this is the case?  I'm not so sure.

bklein09

September 5th, 2011 at 6:00 PM ^

Denard is the QB. And the most talented player on our offense. And the coaches most certainly saw what he did against ND last season (despite what they might say).

So I think Hoke and Borges will be able to lean on him planty if the game dictates that they do so.

I'm not saying that Denard will single-handedly beat ND again. But I think he could, and he will be given the opportunity if we are struggling. 

BlueTuesday

September 5th, 2011 at 6:30 PM ^

I agree with your hypothesis. It can only help Michigan to be the underdog in this game. So far I haven't seen any of the talking heads picking Michigan to win. Come Saturday night, Michigan will be hungry.