NCAAFB: Fresno State @ Boise State

Submitted by formerlyanonymous on November 19th, 2010 at 7:56 PM

Getting this up early, about 1.5 hours to gametime.

Only one game on the schedule tonight  (9:30p ET) as we get some WAC-tion. Fresno State comes in as a massive underdog. How much you ask? The line is Boise State -30.

Fresno State isn't quite the WAC power of years past. They enter the year 6-3 overall with a win over Cincinnati and a bunch of crappy teams. They've lost to Ole Miss, a decent-to-good Hawaii team, and a ranked Nevada. The first two losses were both by fairly large margins, but the Bulldogs did put the pressure on Nevada last week, losing just 35-34.

FSU is fairly balanced on offense, averaging 180 yards rushing per game and 219 passing yards. That's 36th and 61st nationally respectively.

Boise State is still Boise State, playing well against bad to meh competition; they're hated by some, lauded by others. No one is right. Boise State hasn't played anyone at their prime. Virginia Tech still looks like a good win, but that was against a VT team that lost to James Madison, not the VT that's gotten it together in time for the ACC. That win against Oregon State - well, Oregon State never proved themselves as good as everyone was hoping.

We all know nothing and are all swayed by hype from one side or the other.

The best way to fix that, watch the game. Watch the Boise game plan rip apart the Fresno defense. Watch Kellen Moore's weak arm drop precision passes against a WAC secondary. Watch Winston Venable eat small children.

But most of all, bitch about that fucking smurf turf and how much epilepsy it causes the nation because that's one thing I think we can all agree on.

FSU to cover. I'll take the over on the ~66.

Comments

MinorRage

November 19th, 2010 at 8:03 PM ^

it seems like FSU is a decent rushing team. Their top back is avg 5.8 ypc. If he can get even something close to that I have a hard time seeing Boise win by 30+. When you see a team like BSU it's impressive what they've done to the opposition, but teams like that tend to fold when they do finally get a close game. If Fresno can get the running game going early they may be able to put some pressure on boise in the second half.

BlueTimesTwo

November 19th, 2010 at 10:16 PM ^

Two of the best teams that they played (VT & OSU-NTOSU) kept it close, and BSU was the team that was able to make plays under pressure.  You could also argue that they are under pressure every week, because they need to win and win convincingly.  An SEC team can look like crap for most of the season and have one loss (sometimes two), but if they win the SEC they will probably play for the NC.

bronxblue

November 19th, 2010 at 8:13 PM ^

Nice breakdown.  I expect BSU to win, but FSU will keep it close.  As for Moore's arm, it is definitely not a cannon but he seems to be able to get it there when it needs to.  In college, I'll take that over an erratic cannon.

bighouseinmate

November 19th, 2010 at 8:36 PM ^

....BSU will make FresnoSt. look like the Idaho Vandals' practice squad. Remember, this is their next to last game and they will be amped up to show the nation their wares, so to speak. They might not have the athletes that the other top teams have, but IMO, their coaching is second to none.

As an aside, I believe this year would have been perfect for a 4 or 8 team playoff for the MNC. Too many good unbeatens and quite a few very good one loss teams as well.

formerlyanonymous

November 19th, 2010 at 8:53 PM ^

This is also the game right before the big one. They have Nevada in the only game in the last 10 games of their season that matters. Some would call this the looked over let down.

Others would call it a nice warm up for Nevada next week, by throwing another heavy rushing attack at it the week before.

bighouseinmate

November 19th, 2010 at 8:58 PM ^

.....and it will be a prime time game for them as well. They aren't looking to take advantage of a fall by either AU or Oregon. They wan't to impress enough to make it on their own. They won't, but that is their thinking on the matter. Like I said, their coaching is second to none, and that being the case, their mindset is always where it needs to be, for every game they play.

willywill9

November 19th, 2010 at 10:01 PM ^

REVIEW THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Get out of here!

EDIT: They are reviewing... i hope they rule this a fumble...  This would be Turnover #2 for Kellen.

EDIT EDIT: It's annoying that the refs missed it the first time... because that was likely going for 6.

BlueTimesTwo

November 19th, 2010 at 10:03 PM ^

I don't know if you can completely discount the VT win.  Yeah they lost to James Madison, but how much of that was hangover from the close loss to BSU in prime time?  Was Oregon 32 points better than Michigan in 2007, or were we just reeling from App. St.?  It just seems too convenient to say that a team wasn't good when they played somebody, but that two weeks later they had it all figured out.

willywill9

November 19th, 2010 at 10:08 PM ^

Yes true.  And in fairness, Boise could have also been having a bad game as well.  They were both working the rust out in that game.  Boise State is a good team, there is no question, but no team is that good that they blow out EVERY team in their conference.  Even USC had an occasional hiccup.

GBOD79

November 19th, 2010 at 10:57 PM ^

I think the difference between BSU and USC is that Boise State, not matter what they do, are always trying to earn respect. The players and coaches know that they are doubted year in and year out despite all the wins they have had. USC is a respected team and does not need to fight and claw for it. 

I think it is this factor that makes Boise hungrier than the USC's of the world and therefore, less likely to lay an egg against an inferior opponent. 

GBOD79

November 19th, 2010 at 11:32 PM ^

If fan is short for fanatic, then LA does not have any. The people in SoCal are more pro fans than college fans. It always baffled me how they could have USC be so dominant and their fans be so uncaring about them. There was very little excitement from the fans I knew, it was weird. Its safe to say that when Michigan has a great season >90 percent of the fans go insane. I did not find that to be true of USC fans,

So to sum up, I agree they would not show up for Delaware State or UMass. 

Michigan4Life

November 19th, 2010 at 10:11 PM ^

BSU's front four are dominant.  They have been making Fresno State OL look silly especially their DT, Billy Winn.  Winn has been too much to handle from the interior with his quickness and burst.

Michigan4Life

November 19th, 2010 at 10:29 PM ^

is a beast.  I wonder why didn't USC, UCLA or any of the Pac 10 school recruit him.  He's fast and dangerous out in the open field.  He's apparently projected to get drafted in the 1st-2nd round.

bronxblue

November 19th, 2010 at 10:40 PM ^

What is crazy is that even if BSU wins out and a couple of teams ahead of them lose, I don't think they'll even sniff the MNC game.  I could see teams like LSU and one of the 1-loss B10 teams jumping them. 

Ann Arbor Cardinal

November 20th, 2010 at 3:22 AM ^

so I think it could happen: if enough people on ESPN or SI or whatever say BSU should be #2 or Cam Newton should be the Heisman winner or other things that are mostly beauty pageants, their opinions often end up as self-fulfilling prophecies. It happened back when UM and OSU were the top two teams in the country: that one guy during the SEC championship talked about how great Florida was (especially compared to UM), other MSM people nodded in agreement, and magically Florida passed UM in the polls despite Florida's looking mediocre throughout the season and especially in the SEC championship.

Plegerize

November 19th, 2010 at 10:49 PM ^

Damn. Can anyone in the WAC give Boise even a test? I just can't believe that a team like Boise State is THAT much better than the teams in their conference. I know they have something to prove but you'd think someone would give them a scare.

aaamichfan

November 19th, 2010 at 11:16 PM ^

I really wonder who made the decision to hire these people for the ESPN3 halftime show. The guy isn't terrible, but the girl sounds like she is talking with a lisp and a mouthful of food.

Michigan4Life

November 20th, 2010 at 12:06 AM ^

After reading Smart Football post entry on Boise State, I have a much greater appreciation of Boise State offense and their diversity of attack.  I can't imagine on how hard it's to prepare for the offense especially if Chris Peterson throws in a wrinkle or two.

Michigan4Life

November 20th, 2010 at 12:15 AM ^

they do trick plays in every game just to get the coaches worry about it during game planning stage.

 

Boise State will outexecute you to death,  They will lull you into sleep and then pop a big one on you.  I love watching the offense, they're so explosive and unpredictable.

BlueTimesTwo

November 20th, 2010 at 12:49 AM ^

The scary thing is that BSU started the game by giving up two turnovers and by failing to convert a 1st-and-goal from the FSU 4.  This could have been a far bigger blowout.