NCAA Tournament seeding possibilities

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on March 9th, 2012 at 12:05 AM

Going into the game Friday against Minnesota, I am interested in hearing what your thoughts are on Michigan seeding possibilities are based on how Michigan does in the conference tourney.

 

I think most people can agree Michigan is a firm 3 seed if the season ended now (end of Thursday).

 

Here is what I think:

Michigan loses to Minnesota.  Result:  4 seed

Michigan beats Minnesota and then loses in semi-finals.  Result: 3 seed

Michigan loses in the finals.  Result: 3 seed

Michigan wins tourney.  Result: 2 seed

 

 

...I think some of this obviously depends on how other teams do that are in contention for these seeds

Comments

Tater

March 9th, 2012 at 12:30 AM ^

Even if it's one of those two schools I dislike immensely, if any of the co-champions win the Big Ten Tournament, they should have a chance at a number one seed.  I am willing to concede UK and 'Cuse as obvious number one seeds, but that leaves two that could be wide open.  

If they win, UNC should be a number one, and Kansas should be a number one.  If either loses, though, the Big Ten Tournament Champion should get their slot over Duke or Mizzou.  

I am guessing, though, that the ACC gets a number one if UNC or Duke wins their tournament.  The Big 12, though, shouldn't get the benefit of the doubt here.  I think the Big Ten has been a lot tougher conference this year because of a lot more depth, and any of this year's "Big Three" should get the nod over Mizzou or Baylor if they win the Big Ten Tournament.  

 

StephenRKass

March 9th, 2012 at 6:53 AM ^

8 losses makes a 1 seed tough. Yes, 4 losses were to top 25 teams (Duke, IU, MSU, OSU.) But te other four will hurt us:

  • Iowa (unranked)
  • Arkansas (unranked)
  • Virginia (unranked)
  • Purdue (unranked)

Even the fact that we had to go to OT twice to NW is hard, considering they just played themselves out of their best chance to make the tourney.

A three seed is about right, unless we run the gauntlet and win the Big 10 Tourney. At that point, I guess we could be a two seed.

Willhouse

March 9th, 2012 at 11:11 AM ^

I think someone has a personal vendetta against you, bro.

I think we get a 3-seed as long as we win at least one game. If we win the tournament, we might sneak in to a 2-seed slot. I think we would definitely deserve it, because we would basically be 2-1 vs MSU and OSU and have the regular season and conference tournament titles in the best conference. Just not sure if the powers that be would agree with me (and us).

The Baughz

March 9th, 2012 at 7:02 AM ^

Baylor is not getting a one seed if they win. They will get a 2 seed at best. If Mizzou beats KU in the finals, if they meet of course, than I think Mizzou will take KUs place as a 1 seed. UNC should run through the acc tourney, leaving the door open for possible a big ten team getting the last 1 seed.

VermontMichiganFan

March 9th, 2012 at 8:47 AM ^

Syracuse and Kentucky are 1 locks.

Duke/UNC will have one

Kansas/Mizzou wil have one

Unless somehow all 4 of those teams fail to make the conference finals we have no shot at a 1.  And chance all four of those teams lose and we beat OSU and MSU is very small.  And even if it happens the above teams may very well still have the edge.  We can get a 2- but absolutely no chance at a 1 in my mind.

mackbru

March 9th, 2012 at 12:41 AM ^

I'd have to think the winner of the B10 tourney gets a #1 seed as long as that winner is one of the three league co-champs. I can't see, say, M or Ohio beating Sparty only to get a lower seed. Makes no sense.

bacon1431

March 9th, 2012 at 12:56 AM ^

I think there's less than a .01% chance we get a 1 seed. We'd need alot of help. All of Kansas, Mizzou, Duke, UNC would have to lose early and ugly in their conference tourneys. So would MSU IMO. Even if we beat them in the B1G CG, they would be more likely to get a 1 seed because their resume is more impressive than ours. I agree with the OP on his take on our seeding chances. We're a 3 seed as long as we don't lose tomorrow. Win the conference tourney while beating OSU and MSU and we're a 2.

Lampuki22

March 9th, 2012 at 6:16 AM ^

lost, actually blew, the last two games of the season. The fact that they didn't drop further and some are talking about them as 1 seed if they win the BTT astounds me. 

They were never a deep team and they have 13 points of ftheir offense sidelined with injuries. 

I see them as 2-3 seed no matter how well they do in the BTT.  Ohio State doesn't deserve a 1 seed either. 

However, even if we beat Spartina in the tournment they will still get a t least the same or higher seed as we do.  They are still riding on past glory. 

bacon1431

March 9th, 2012 at 8:31 AM ^

Still riding on past glory.......

And a damn good basketball team and resume. I see them as a 2 seed unless they lose their first game today and Neither Kansas or Mizzou win their conference tournament and MSU wins ours.

kingrichardx

March 9th, 2012 at 12:46 AM ^

I agree with the logic that the winner of the B1G regular season and tourney should have a shot at a 1-seed but this is an odd year. It's highly unusual for a team with 5 conference losses to be the regular season champion. Even though it might "feel" like we should be a top seed the tournament committee is going to have a very hard time giving that distinction to a team with 8 losses. 

It's a shame too because if you take the Iowa and Arkansas losses off the board I think that it would still be well within the realm of possibility. It's obviously been an absolutely amazing year but Iowa has kinda peed in our fruit loops.

Tucson Wolverine

March 9th, 2012 at 1:09 AM ^

...that we can even talk about Michigan getting a number 2 seed as a realistic possibility. Who would have thought our boys would finish the season 23-8 with no Darius Morris. It truly has been one heck of a year and I can't wait to see how far this team will go in the BTT and into March Madness. Go Blue!

moredamnsound

March 9th, 2012 at 5:43 AM ^

After we narrowly escaped WIU at home I was kind of already thinking that this would just be an okay year and I was awaiting the arrival of one Mitch McGary. Looking back I was an idiot to judge that early, and I'm excited to see that Stu and Zack finish their careers with apiece of the Big Ten Championship (and hopefully make it far in the tournaments).

robmorren2

March 9th, 2012 at 1:17 AM ^

I'd almost rather be a #3 .... there isn't much of a difference from a #2, and you have a good chance of playing a #11 in the 2nd round. It seems like #11's win very often. The #2 seed plays the winner of 7vs10, which is usually 2 good teams .... 6, 7, 10's are usually from major conferences, 11's are usually mid-majors. I'd like to roll the dice and root for an 11 to beat a 6.

ijohnb

March 9th, 2012 at 7:16 AM ^

are a 3 seed.  You look up 3 seed in the dictionary and there is the team picture for the 2011-2012 Michigan basketball team.  I really don't think anything can happen in the BTT, including a loss the Minny or winning the whole damn thing that will result in Michigan not being a 3 seed in the tourney.  And that is right where I personally want to be.

MichiganMan2424

March 9th, 2012 at 7:39 AM ^

I think people are overstating the importance of winning the B1G tournament for NCAA seeding. Our tournament ends only about 30 minutes before the seeds are announced I think. That doesn't give them much time to adjust and give us a new seeding if we win. I think getting to the title game might help our seeding more than winning it.

ClearEyesFullHart

March 9th, 2012 at 7:40 AM ^

I think realistically a 2 seed is the ceiling for the big 10. Nobody is breaking into the top 4. I look at the BTT as a prize in itself, not a means to an end. Mostly I want to outperform a couple of "state" schools. When people say that they're better than Michigan, that Michigan "lucked" into a championship, I want them to look as stupid as possible.

mGrowOld

March 9th, 2012 at 7:46 AM ^

I personally think the OP has it exactly right as far as our win/loss and projected seeding goes.  But any talk of a freakin one seed truly makes me laugh.  That has 0.00% chance of happening and I don't care what combination of losses occur elsewhere.  We should be beyond thrilled to even be in the discussion for a two seed with eight losses.

Trust me - if we do somehow get made a second seed on Sunday we will definitely be the subject of much chatter by the respective talking heads immediately afterwards.  I mean right after they all wax poetic over the INJUSTICE of poor Drexell not getting a bid (and they won't) despite their nice long winning streak over...um...nobody.   You don't get the 222 hardest strength of schedule ranking for nothing.

rappjason

March 9th, 2012 at 8:10 AM ^

in fact, a 3 may still be in the cards if we lose to MN tonight, depending on other results.

 

after that, a 4 is more likely than a 2. i seem to remember seeing something in years past about how the committee generally doesn't have time to take the B1G tournament final result into account when determining final seedings. i don't have anything to back this up, just my flawed memory; but if my recollection is correct, then only if getting to the B1G final is sufficient wil we get a 2. i'm not optimistic this will be enough for us.

 

long story short, i'd say the odds are 75% for a 3, 20% for a 4 and 5% for a 2. what a world!

Jorel

March 9th, 2012 at 8:10 AM ^

But a 2 seed is definitely possible. If we beat OSU to reach the conf finals (having beaten them twice this year), it's possible we move past them just for that. Win the whole thing and we're definitely a 2 seed ahead of them.

I also think a 3 seed is on the line today for Michigan. Win and we got it; lose and we could slip to 4. Marquette and Georgetown lost and, barring an ACC championship from Florida State in which it beats UNC and Duke, I think the only threat to earn a 3 seed other than the four teams universally on that line (Baylor, Mich, Marquette, Georgetown) is the Indiana / Wisconsin winner. Since Marquette and Georgetown already lost one (Georgetown) would be more likely to slip to a 4 than Michigan would. But if Michigan loses to Minn, we could slip below Georgetown on the S-curve.

AAB

March 9th, 2012 at 8:24 AM ^

the impact of conference tournaments.  If Michigan loses to Minnesota, I could see them sliding to a 4, but I'm not sure they're in line for a 2 even if they win out.  

DCAlum

March 9th, 2012 at 8:52 AM ^

They are biting at our heels to grab that 3 seed. I could see a scenario where we lose to Ohio, one of them beats MSU, and we drop to a 4.

 

That said, G-town's loss last night was very helpful for our 3 seed chances. 

jwilkins3

March 9th, 2012 at 9:39 AM ^

Win tonight and we are a three. Thats good enough for me considering the huge waves we made this year. I think that any seed from 2 through 4 will happen and it doesnt really matter because when it comes to the NCAA tournament anything can happen. 10 and 7 seeds beat 2's in the second round quite frequent in the men's tourney. And the relatively close comparisons of 4/5 and 3/6 matchups in the second round are always fun to watch so whatever we get it will not be as easy beyond the first round.

Wolverine In Exile

March 9th, 2012 at 10:42 AM ^

bottom expectation is a 4 seed with a bad loss today, high expectation is a favorable 2 seed with a B1G tourney championship (expecially if wins over OSU and MSU), realistic is a lower 3 seed after either a loss to OSU in the semis or MSU in the finals. B1G isn't getting a 1 seed unless Kansas and / or UNC stumbles and OSU steamrolls through the tourney (which would be wins over Purdue, us, and Mich St.. pretty good close out ot the year).

YouremyboyBlue

March 9th, 2012 at 11:49 AM ^

I agree with the 4 seed and 3 seed predictions.  However, to bump us up to a #2 seed, I think we'd need to beat OSU and Mich St., and do it at least somewhat convincingly (or at least look good while winning those games).  Wins over Minnesota, Purdue and Indiana, for example, I don't think would bump us up to a #2.

Unfortunately, the Big Ten is at a disadvantage when it comes to tourney seeding because its so strong top to bottom (sans Nebraska and PSU).  It will be tough or almost impossible for any BT team to get a #1, and depending on how MSU and OSU do this weekend, they might not even get a #2.  Neither team has been exactly hot lately, although OSU played well last Sunday.

Its ok though, I think the BT will do very well in the tourney.  I think Purdue and Indiana, as well as MSU, OSU, and of course Mich will all have a good opportunity to make some noise (not that all of those teams will, but they all will be ready).  Playing tough teams in the BT week in and week out pays off this time of year.