NCAA Seed should the improbable* occur

Submitted by Drbogue on March 10th, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Here's a seeding question: Right now, Michigan looks like a 3 seed in the NCAA. If the gods allow and Michigan beats OHIO today, faces and beats Sparty tomorrow, what are the odds of a 1 seed in the tourney? I laugh when I think of it, but hey, I think a 2 seed would be warranted.

 

Comments

BlueBrad

March 10th, 2012 at 9:41 AM ^

Even if everything goes our way as listed above AND no other top 10 teams win their conference tournament, that would be the only way we could even be considered. It would be awesome, but I dont think it would happen even if everything worked out perfectly. What's the most amount of losses a 1 seed has ever had?

mgokev

March 10th, 2012 at 10:37 AM ^

Going back to 2006 (the past 5 years) the #1 seed with the most losses was UNC at 28-6 in 2007.  We have no chance at a 1 seed regardless of what happens in the BTT.  These are maize and blue delusions of grandeur.

Additionally, no teams with 8 losses or more have been a 2 seed in the past 5 years.

Since 2006, there have only been 4 teams with 8 losses or more to even get to a 3 seed.  

2010: (3) Pittsburgh 24-8; 
2009: (3) Syracuse 26-9 (BET Runner-Up);
2008: (3) Louisville 24-8;
2006: (3) Iowa 25-8 (won BTT);

My guess is even if beating MSU and OSU, we get a 3 seed, albeit one of the "higher" 3 seeds.  If we lose to Ohio, I believe there is a 50% chance we get a 4 seed.

We all should take a deep breath and be thankful we have squeaked out so many close wins this year.  With 3 overtime wins and two more wins that we squeaked out by two points, we realistically could have finished 19-13 and in the NIT if a few bounces go against us (think Northwestern's season's luck).

That's not to discredit the team's success this year, which should be applauded, but for a 2-seed (let alone a 1-seed) can any of us realistically say there are only 7 other teams in the country better than us?

Hachgoblue

March 10th, 2012 at 10:46 AM ^

Right now, according to Bracket Matrix, the current 3 seeds are Marquette, Michigan, Baylor, and Georgetown. The 4 seeds are Wisconsin, Indiana, Temple, and Florida State.

Georgetown is in the most danger of getting passed at this point since they are lowest ranked 3 and lost the earliest in their respective tournament. Indiana and Temple are done. That leaves Wisconsin and Florida State to pass us. And I guess if Louisville won the Big East tourney they could move up to a 3.

So in terms of rooting interests today, as bad as this sounds, we root for State, Duke, and Cinci in the Big East final. Or we just beat Ohio.

mgokev

March 10th, 2012 at 11:00 AM ^

If we beat Ohio I believe we are a 3-seed regardless of any other outcomes.  If we lose, I think we are a 4-seed if Wisconsin beats MSU (Wisconsin would move up to a 3-seed in my opinion).  The other "dark horse" team could be Florida if they win the SEC tournament by going through Kentucky.  They would finish 31-9 and SEC Champs with a recent win over a consensus #1 seed.

This is why I think we need to beat Ohio to solidly take a 3-seed.  If we lose, I think it's a coin flip that the selection committee puts us at a 4-seed depending on what happens around us.  Obviously, IU's loss helps us and if Wisconsin loses, it might be a moot point.

Either way, the 2-seed (and 1-seed?!?!) talk is a little wishful thinking in my opinion.

aiglick

March 10th, 2012 at 11:05 AM ^

Agree that the one is out of reach.

If we were to win out though that would be beating two current projected two seeds twice during the season. At that point I think we would be essentially tied in wins with them and would probably have better wins than them (if you are including them as part of our wins).

I know losses are important but Michigan would probably have to be considered for a two seed for winning the regular season title in the toughest conference in the land, winning the BTT, and beating two competitors head-to-head twice.

A three is fine with me though preferrably a high one. Remember who won the whole thing last year. In my mind there are no truly dominant teams this year. North Carolina with Senior Tyler Hansborough is the elite that I am talking about.

There are favorites (Kentucky, Syracuse, and UNC) but they can lose games on any given day.

mgokev

March 10th, 2012 at 11:11 AM ^

I would agree that Michigan would be considered for a 2-seed but only if we beat OSU and MSU (but not Wisconsin).  At that point, I think we very well could bump either OSU or MSU to the 3-seed line and take their spot assuming the chips fall the way they're supposed to elsewhere.  But ultimately, I don't see a huge difference between a high 3-seed or a low 2-seed.  There might be instances where being a high 3-seed could get us an easier draw depending on matchups.

That said, we would be the only 2-seed in the last 6 years to have 8 losses, however there appears to be more league parity this year which makes it possible.

Hachgoblue

March 10th, 2012 at 11:17 AM ^

I think you're confused. Florida is 23-9 right now. Winning SEC would make them 25-9, not 31-9. They also ended the regular season on a 3 game losing streak. They're currently a 6 seed in the Bracket Matrix, unlikely to get a 3 I think, but maybe a win over Kentucky would change everything.

mgokev

March 10th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^

You're right, thanks for the catch.  I must have misread their W/L (31-9? 40 games in a season? I should have caught that...).  I don't think they jump up to a 3-seed, but anything is possible if they beat Kentucky.  Either way, I would think if they won the SEC they would take Georgetown's spot before ours.  I still think our odds at a 3-seed are 60%, with a 2 or 4-seed probably at 20% each if we win out or lose to Ohio, respectively.  Especially given the weak field on our tails and IU's struggle and injury.

mGrowOld

March 10th, 2012 at 9:47 AM ^

IMO a 2 is possible (although not probable) given 8 losses IF we beat OHIO and MSU.  A three seems far more likely to me in almost any circumstance and differences would be which 3 (high or low).  A 1 is simply impossible.

Carcajous

March 10th, 2012 at 10:23 AM ^

Having beaten Minny, I'd say we are a 3 unless we win out.  In that case we are a 2.

 

As an aside, isn't it nice to be discussing whether or not we are going to be  2, 3, or 4 seed rather thatn whenther or not we are in at all??

Needs

March 10th, 2012 at 10:34 AM ^

I think a 2 with a win today is a possibility. Right now, the consensus 2 seeds are Duke, Mizzou, and OSU/MSU. By winning their first games in their conference tourneys, I think Mizzou and Duke have set their floors at a 2. There's some possiblity that Duke could move up to a #1, if they beat UNC in the conference final. If that happens, I think the most likely outcome is that both Duke and UNC get #1s, while Kansas drops to the top line of the #2 seed. Mizzou's non-conference schedule was terrible and they lost to Kansas twice. Don't see anyway that, even with winning the Big 12, they can advance to a #1, since they won't beat Kansas in the process.

For the Big 10 teams, we do at least enter the conversation if we beat OSU. We'd have the head-to-head advantage. They have a better good wins in their demolition of Duke early in the season and their win at MSU. If we win out, I think there's a good chance that both UM and OSU get 2 seeds while MSU gets dropped to the 3. Their best win is @ OSU and they would have lost 3 out of 4 or 5, depending on whether we beat them or UW does. I have no idea what happens if we beat OSU and lose to UW in the final. Likely OSU and MSU as 2s and UM and UW as 3s, but the committee could really do anything.

mGrowOld

March 10th, 2012 at 10:15 AM ^

I'm just happy that for the first time in a LONG time we're just debating probably seeding and NOT will our name get called.  That's the way it was from about 1985 to 1998 and it's the way it should be going forward for a long, long time to come.

B-Nut-GoBlue

March 10th, 2012 at 3:21 PM ^

I've been saying this for the past couple weeks.  Damn it feels good.  All this seed talk is music to my ears, especially how low a seed we're going to get.  The nervous Nancy feelings I've gotten the past couple years wore me down; this year's scenario is more ideal!

Maize_in_Spartyland

March 10th, 2012 at 10:28 AM ^

Even the two seed is likely out of reach. Duke and Carolina will be either on the 1 or 2 line. Missouri and Kansas will be on either the 1 or 2 line. Syracuse and Kentucky are 1s. That leaves two spots - even if Michigan State or Ohio drops down, I don't see Michigan replacing them - especially if Baylor wins the Big 12.

FYI - the Big Ten Tournament Title tomorrow will not affect seeding. The committee has said it time and again that the game takes place too late. I don't agree, but they have been consistent in that approach.

Needs

March 10th, 2012 at 10:48 AM ^

It's really tight between UM and Baylor. They have a slightly higher RPI (8 vs. 10). We have a far better record against the RPI top 25 (We've beat the 5, 7, 14,16, and 20 while they've beaten the 6 and 23 with both losing 4 games). Our bad losses (Iowa and Arkansas) are much worse than their worst loss (K State). If both teams win today, they'd pick up a win vs the RPI 11 team while we'd pick up a win against the RPI 5. Really close call, but I think it's in our favor.

Could Mizzou drop to the #3 if they lose and we win today? They'd be 3-2 against the RPI top 25 while we'd be 7-4, with equally bad losses. (They lost to Okie State who's 121, while Iowa is 128). We'd have 8 losses to their 5, however.

Doctor Jan Itor

March 10th, 2012 at 10:36 AM ^

with the performance of the other teams close to michigan this weekend, I believe a loss to Ohio State will still not bump UM to a 4 seed unless its pretty ugly.

Marquette and Georgetown have already lost earlier in their tournaments and will not jump back ahead of UM with a close loss to a top 10 team.

Baylor's win and wisconsin's win will look nice, but at best the committee will look at our big win over wisconsin as indicative of our higher caliber and at worst they will simply replace marquette and Georgetown on the 3 line. 

Temple and Indiana have lost and will not jump us with a theoretical loss to OSU as they have essentially already done that (temple lost to a much worse team)

Everyone below that is a good bit worse in resume status than UM. 

Save an ugly loss to OSU or some ridiculous committee bias, I think the 3 seed is pretty solid . 

Saint_in_Blue

March 10th, 2012 at 11:01 AM ^

I would rather be 3 seed and play in a favorable region than be a 2 seed and get shipped out west. Besides, the match-ups between 2 and 3 seeds are not that much different.

Needs

March 10th, 2012 at 11:18 AM ^

I'd rather be shipped out West, because that means we'd be in the section with the weakest #1 seed.

Syracuse is getting the East, UNC is likely to get the Southeast, with Kentucky getting the Midwest (St. Louis is slightly closer to Lexington than Atlanta). I think those three are highly likely to make the round of 8 and we don't match up well against any of them. That means either Kansas or Duke is likely to go West and not only are they the best matchups for UM, I'd be surprised if either made it to the round of 8.

The new pod system means high seeds play reasonably close to their campuses in the first two rounds anyway.

Anonymosity

March 10th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^

Lose today: 7 seed
Win today and then lose to Wisconsin: NIT bid
Win today and then lose to MSU: 1 seed
Win BTT: 5 seed, BUT first three games will be moved to Crisler

Just epinion.

DefenseWins

March 10th, 2012 at 12:11 PM ^

Let's just win.  And let the chips fall where they may.  The season has already been incredible to me.  No one expected a B1G championship (albeit a tie).  I'm just going to enjoy the ride from here on out, as hard as that is being a neurotic M fan.

Perkis-Size Me

March 10th, 2012 at 12:16 PM ^

Even if we win the tournament, I think the #1 seeds are locked down. UNC, Kansas, Syracuse and Kentucky are definitely more deserving of #1 seeds than we are. But, a #2 seed is definitely not out of the question.

spartanfan123

March 10th, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^

according to Lunardi and other anylysts, syracuse and kentucky are locks.

Assuming UNC/Duke play in the ACC Championship, the winner will get the 3rd.

Then the last one would be either MSU or OSU IF either wins the big ten tournament, if not it will most likely be Mizzou.

rederik

March 10th, 2012 at 1:14 PM ^

What's the askerisk for? Usually when I see one it means there's a footnote somewhere for me to read.* What gives?

 

*But there's no follow-up to the askerisk on 'improbable' in the OP.

State Street

March 10th, 2012 at 2:56 PM ^

To be honest I don't think this team deserves any better than a 6 seed.  

This team is marginally, marginally better than last years.  Yes we won a B1G title, but a lot of that was aided by the other teams in the conference beating up on each other.  Hardaway has been mediocre, Smot has been off, and Honestly our offense hasn't been as fluid without Dairus. 

Sorry to be honest, but I just don't think this team deserves this much hype.  

jmblue

March 10th, 2012 at 3:07 PM ^

So we won 13 conference games, in a year when the league was deeper than it was last year, mainly because the other teams beat up on each other? I don't follow that one.

You're focusing on the offense.  That end of the court isn't that much better than it was last year, I agree.  But defensively we are significantly improved - and that's what's kept us in so many games.

And yes, going 24-8 and winning a conference title means you deserve a top-3 seed.