NCAA Game Simulator Prefers UM over Sparty

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on October 12th, 2015 at 7:02 PM

So this here NCAA Game Simulator is fun, even though what goes into the algorithm is unclear. My results:

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 28 - Michigan State (2016): 21

Matchup Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 152 times.
  • Michigan (2016) has won 134 times (88.2%), won by > 20 pts 70 times (46.1%)
  • Michigan State (2016) has won 18 times (11.8%), won by > 20 pts 0 times (0.0%)
  • The average score is Michigan (2016): 27.2 - Michigan State (2016): 9.6, decided by < 5 pts 19 times (12.5%)
  • The game has gone into overtime 2 times (1.3%)

[Note: when it says "2016" it means "2015-16"]

[Also note: I ran the sims for this matchup with teams from 13-14 (84% to Sparty) and 14-15 (75% to Sparty), so the sim favors us to roughly the same degree it favored them the last two times...and we all know how that ended up.]

 

Comments

TruBluMich

October 12th, 2015 at 8:28 PM ^

If they are doing it correctly they are taking into account each play from scrimmage.  So starting from the opening kickoff, they simulate each play of the game based off percentages.  Since they are based off percentages the outcome of each play and how many plays in every game will be completely diffrent.  The more data they have the more accurate the simulation.

LSAClassOf2000

October 12th, 2015 at 7:16 PM ^

Over at Massey Ratings, we've got an estimated 69% chance with a projected mean score of 20-13 over their simulations. It's just funny to think that, at the beginning of the season - and granted, with no data from this season in the algorithm yet - that projection for that same game? It was markedly less rosy. 

San Diego Mick

October 12th, 2015 at 7:28 PM ^

to set up the pass, we're pretty damn good at stopping the run, they will be in 3rd and long a lot, not a good recipe.

No way we give up 3 TD's when we've only given up 2 in the last 5 games, we could easily have had 5 shutouts in a row, that's not a fluke.

We're going to win this game by multiple scores with MSU not scoring very much, maybe 13 points or something, if that. 

Meanwhile MSU's defense has conceded quite a lot of points and yards and for the 1st time in a while we will be the tougher team and smack them in the mouth.

sum1valiant

October 12th, 2015 at 8:22 PM ^

The "remove the big plays" caveat is applied far too often on this here board, and for no good reason.  "If I remove the data points that don't support my argument, my argument becomes valid."  I don't believe this is a prudent way to analyze data.  The plays actually happened, and are therefore equally important to the data set. 

Holmes didn't recieve good blocking on his carries of 1 and 3 yards, so i'm going to remove them from my analysis.  Thus he actually averaged 11 yards per carry last week, and should promptly be considered a Heisman candidate.  

SMJenkins3

October 12th, 2015 at 7:33 PM ^

I'm just going to leave the result when I simulated it here and make no additional comment...

 

 

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 38 - Michigan State (2016): 0

acnumber1

October 12th, 2015 at 7:38 PM ^

Ran it once.

 

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 17 - Michigan State (2016): 10

 

Rudock 17/30 2 TD 3 INT

Cook 11/27 1TD 1INT

 

LJ Scott 15 carries 73 yds

De'Veon Smith  20 carries 101 yds

Kerridge 2 carries 39 yds

LloydCarnac

October 12th, 2015 at 7:40 PM ^

"FINAL SCORE -- Utah (2016): 14 - Michigan (2016): 34

Matchup Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 30 times.
  • Utah (2016) has won 6 times (20.0%), won by > 20 pts 0 times (0.0%)
  • Michigan (2016) has won 24 times (80.0%), won by > 20 pts 12 times (40.0%)
  • The average score is Utah (2016): 7.6 - Michigan (2016): 22.9, decided by < 5 pts 5 times (16.7%)
  • The game has gone into overtime 1 times (3.3%)"

Oh well, that was fun while it lasted. . .

LloydCarnac

October 12th, 2015 at 8:09 PM ^

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 6 - Michigan (2016): 38

Matchup Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 18 times.
  • Michigan (2016) has won 8 times (44.4%), won by > 20 pts 2 times (11.1%)
  • Michigan (2016) has won 10 times (55.6%), won by > 20 pts 3 times (16.7%)
  • The average score is Michigan (2016): 18.8 - Michigan (2016): 20.2, decided by < 5 pts 3 times (16.7%)
  • The game has gone into overtime 2 times (11.1%)

Hmmm. .

umgoblue2008

October 12th, 2015 at 8:15 PM ^

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 6 - Michigan (2016): 23

Matchup Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 19 times.
  • Michigan (2016) has won 8 times (42.1%), won by > 20 pts 2 times (10.5%)
  • Michigan (2016) has won 11 times (57.9%), won by > 20 pts 3 times (15.8%)
  • The average score is Michigan (2016): 18.1 - Michigan (2016): 20.3, decided by < 5 pts 3 times (15.8%)
  • The game has gone into overtime 2 times (10.5%)

 

Michigan with the win!

umgoblue2008

October 12th, 2015 at 8:20 PM ^

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 24 - Northwestern (2016): 0

Matchup Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 323 times.
  • Michigan (2016) has won 229 times (70.9%), won by > 20 pts 54 times (16.7%)
  • Northwestern (2016) has won 94 times (29.1%), won by > 20 pts 6 times (1.9%)
  • The average score is Michigan (2016): 17.5 - Northwestern (2016): 11.0, decided by < 5 pts 99 times (30.7%)
  • The game has gone into overtime 14 times (4.3%)

SAMgO

October 12th, 2015 at 8:41 PM ^

FINAL SCORE -- Michigan (2016): 51 - Michigan State (2016): 0

Matchup Simulation Stats

  • This game has been simulated 457 times.
  • Michigan (2016) has won 414 times (90.6%), won by > 20 pts 224 times (49.0%)
  • Michigan State (2016) has won 43 times (9.4%), won by > 20 pts 1 times (0.2%)
  • The average score is Michigan (2016): 28.5 - Michigan State (2016): 10.1, decided by < 5 pts 54 times (11.8%)
  • The game has gone into overtime 7 times (1.5%)

 

Please, stop, I can only get so erect.

Eye of the Tiger

October 12th, 2015 at 8:59 PM ^

More good news!

Matchup Simulation Stats

This game has been simulated 275 times.
Michigan (2016) has won 157 times (57.1%), won by > 20 pts 44 times (16.0%)
Ohio State (2016) has won 118 times (42.9%), won by > 20 pts 21 times (7.6%)
The average score is Michigan (2016): 24.0 - Ohio State (2016): 21.1, decided by The game has gone into overtime 14 times (5.1%)

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