NCAA BBall Committee Top 16 Revealed

Submitted by tlo2485 on February 11th, 2018 at 1:08 PM

The Committee revealed it's current top 16.

South: 1. UVA(1), 2 Cinci(8), 3 MSU(11) 4 Tenn(13)

East: 1 Nova(2), 2 Duke(7), 3 Tex Tech(10), 4 OSU(14)

Midwest: 1 Xavier(3), 2 Auburn(5), 3 Clemson(9), 4 Oklahoma(16)

West: 1 Purdue(4), 2 Kansas(6), 3 UNC(12), 4 Arizona(15)


CBS/Palm finished out their bracket from this and pegged Michigan #8 in the South vs. #9 Butler and mentioned us as a dangerous team in March. (They would probably separate us from MSU with only 4 B1G teams projected, but 8 feels about right currently. Finish strong and get a much more desirable 6 or 7 seed.)



February 11th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^

Not to defend Duke because I agree they are consistently overrated, but they do have wins over the Kenpomn #6/3 seed MSU, #43 Texas, #27 Florida, #25 FSU, #36 Miami, and #38 ND.  And of their 3 losses, only one was a bad one (to SJU).  The others were 2-point loss to overall #1 UVA and 4 points to UNC on the road.  They have a tough closing stretch, but Duke is probably one of the best 5-6 teams in the country.  

By comparison, history has shown us that MSU is almost always over-seeded and given way too many benefits of the doubt for a team that has won exactly 2 titles in their history, equal to the output from NC State, Oklahoma St, and Cincy, amongst others.


February 11th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^

I'll just defend the committee in the context of this discussion.

I agree that Duke as a 2 seed right now is absolutely not overrated, and here are some more facts:  They're 5th in kenpom, 9th in RPI, and that loss at St. John's isn't even that bad.  It's actually in the most difficult tier of games in the kenpom and committee tier system (on the road against a top 75ish team).

In fact, per Kenpom, each of the #1 seeds has a worse loss than Duke's worst loss (Purdue neutral v WKU, Villanova at home to St. John's, Xavier at Providence and Virgina at home to VT).

None of the 3 seeds can make even a close argument for being seeded a 2 over Duke. Anyone whining about them being a 2 seed right now just sounds like an irrational Duke hater (I much prefer rational Duke haters).

As for history showing MSU is almost always over-seeded, that's even more irrational.

FiveThirtyEight did a comparison of tourney performance compared to seed and concluded that Tom Izzo is the best tourney coach in modern far!  Ugh.  That is painful to type but was true at the time:

That was just after they made the final four as a 7 seed, and the following year they lost to MTSU which probably brought him back to the field but I'm sure he still leads the list in terms of out performing his seed.  Impossible to argue they've been overseeded with that kind of track record.


February 11th, 2018 at 6:38 PM ^

MSU very consistently gets as far as their preseason rank. They underachieve in the regular season and get lower seeds, then go out at their preseason rank.

It’s odd, but true. Does that make MSU a bad regular season team or an amazing tourney team? Your call.


February 11th, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^

No doubt that they're always very highly ranked relative to talent because preseason voters factor in Izzo's track record. They do seem to frequently underacheive in the regular season relative to the their early ranks but I'd be curious to see an actual analysis of that as well as analysis of whether their tourney results merely match their preseason expectations or if they exceed them (or fall short).


February 11th, 2018 at 5:19 PM ^

ten tourney, just to get up to the 2 line.  They've played an abysmal schedule. They only have three quadrant 1 wins all season.

They're 14th in RPI and they won't have another opportunity for a Q1 win until the BTT. Would have to beat OSU and Purdue to move up a seed line.


February 11th, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^

and first to lose to a #16 would be just what the d....

Ok, that first phrase that came to mind would have come out horribly given current situation in EL.  

Lets just say, It would be glorious to watch.


February 11th, 2018 at 11:04 PM ^

They only have beat two ranked teams all year! One at home, while the other team at a neutral site. The committee is aware of this. Zero road wins over top tier teams. Thus, the impossibility of the overall #1 seed.


February 12th, 2018 at 8:40 AM ^

I retract that.  Still though, it would be a very unusual situation for a Top 4 team to be a 3 seed.  They will pass Purdue in the AP (who they just beat and who just lost two in a row, and should not be a 1 seed).  Anyway, don't care that much.  Hope they lose in the first round, whatever seed they are.


February 11th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^

Very weak non-conference schedule. They got some good shooters, but not much size inside since they were caught paying those guys and had to suspend them!

They'll be upset in the first w/e of the tourney!


February 11th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^

Is the most overrated team in there.  A ton of close shaves against mediocre competition, and only one pretty nice win (Cincinnatti, at home).  Plus, they got pounded by Villanova and Arizona State.  

Maize in Cincy

February 11th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^

I'm a Cincinnati fan, so I hate Xavier, but you really think they have played mediocre competition?  The big east is the best top to bottom conference out there.  Xavier has consistently outperformed their seed in the tourney under Mack.  They will be a 1 seed if they beat Villanova at home, probably a 2 if they lose to them again.


February 11th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^

but some of their close shaves haven't been against great competition:

68-66 over East TN state, home

81-77 over Marshall, home

91-87 over Marquette, road

77-72 over DePaul, home

88-82 over St. John's, home

73-68 over St. John's, road

96-91 over Georgetown, home

There are a bunch of other close wins against better competition (e.g., 72-71 at Creighton)

Their only "close" loss was by 9 on the road against Providence.

None of those are wins to be ashamed of, but it's a lot of close wins -- and suggests they've been a little lucky.  You don't always make all the shots in the last couple minutes to pull the game out. 

The third best team in the country should roll a few more of those opponents.