NBA executive thinks Burke should stay at UM
I know everybody is in panic mode over here, so I thought this would warrant a new thread.
But Matt Dery, a pistons broadcaster just tweeted that he talked to an NBA executive who told him that he thought trey should stay.
Matt DeryI really like Trey Burke. Read @freepwolverinesarticle about him considering NBA. Just talked to an NBA exec who says "Trey should stay".
Linke here: https://twitter.com/#!/deryNBA/status/182574927608692736
thinks Burke should stay at UM, too
I think he should stay, but if he gets an honest assessment at 18-24 in the 1st round he would be crazy not to leave. That's guaranteed $Millions. If he finds out he is going to likely be a 2nd round pick and still leaves, that will send up some red flags about this program to some people.
I don't know, hate to say it, but it's 50/50 right now IMO.
you should most likely stay. 2nd round is a non-guaranteed contract and you can be cut before you ever play a game. Also being picked by good teams late in the second round means you may not get the time to develop or you may be stuck behind a star.
Darius was drafted in the second round but got to be a Laker (clearly a dream come true for an LA kid), earn a living as a professional basketball player (another dream come true), and develop his skills, FULL-TIME, with professional staff focused on his development. Even with the NBDL, I don't think he regrets his decision.
The assumption is that with a return to school for his junior year he would have moved up in the draft but this is dubious (and ultimately cannot be answered.) I argue his stock would not have improved enough to make a tangible difference. He still would have had the knocks against his athleticism. The best thing he could have done is improved his jump shot. But scouts assume this is something he might be able to fix as a pro too, and so he still has his valuable 'potential', which withers away with each year of college ball. If he DIDn't improve his stock his value would go down. If he got hurt, his value would go down. It can go both ways.
Given the risk of injury, a 2nd round selection is by no means a reason to stay in school. If you're smart enough, and you save money, you can easily go back to school. Darius made the right call.
Same goes for Manny Harris.
I think the real argument was that if he came back for both years and gotten a degree, he could have then gotten a real job after his 2-3 year NBA stint. And at this point, Darius will be lucky to have a 2-3 year NBA career. Sure, he had a 473k contract this year, but you can't live off that for too long, especially in LA. Even if he gets one more year at that pay, it will only last him until he's about 27 or so. Then what?
The biggest ones are a) pro ball elsewhere and b) going back to school.
You act as though he's destined for unemployment at the end of the year. He can still parlay his experience into a 'real job'. Putting 'NBA Basketball Player' on your resume probably opens a lot of door in sales, coaching, physical training and other fields, even more than a degree from Michigan, I'd guess. He can also save and invest a few hundred K. That kind of capital doesn't set you for life, but it's a better start than most college grads have.
Extend out his basketball earning to 3, 4, or 7 years, and suddenly he can have a nice stack of cash available to get a head start on whatever opportunities he wants to pursue in the 'real world', especially if he has an entreprenurial bent.
Yes, I agree with you that if he plays basketball for 7 years he'll likely be fine, because that means for some of those years he'll be making well into the 7 digits. But that's pretty optimistic at this point.
I don't know what kind of job opportunities are out there for a 22 year old with no degree who floundered in the NBA for a couple years. I work in sales, and my company wouldn't want to hire someone like that. A lot of companies like to hire ex-college athletes, but not the ones who bail on college after a couple years and then need jobs a couple years later. Companies like to hire ex-athletes because of what it takes to get a college degree while playing a sport, like Zack Novak or Troy Woolfolk.
And of course he can go back to school. But this time around it won't be paid for and he won't have the same support he would have had the first time around. I don't know if he wants to spend the first 100k or so of his earnings finishing up his degree.
This is over-the-top. Morris will be able to play overseas if he needs to. If he was good enough to make an NBA roster, even temporarily, he'll easily be good enough to make it in Europe. He's not going to be living in a cardboard box.
But, obviously it depends on the job - a car-dealership is going to love a former athlete, insurance-sales, coaching, entertainment, etc. What he wants to do might not demand a degree.
But, if it does, that option is there. If you make 473K, that's enough to live off and cover 2 more years of college. He's already earned, in months, more than the value of his scholarship for 2 more years. It wouldn't take 7 years, he's already made enough to make it worthwhile. Each year he is employed in the NBA will further tip the scale in his favor.
So then, IF he does want to spend his money on going back to school, he can. Then, he'd be a college grad with a pretty interesting background, experience working in front of crowds, etc. That's probably more impressive than Peace Corps, missions, and various other diversions that many young people take in their 20s before entering the workforce. PLUS, he can still talk about balancing school/sports because he did it for 2 years and through High School/AAU. Is that really that much worse than 4? Plus, it shows dedication and motivation to go back to school after an NBA career.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:14 AM ^
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:24 AM ^
That's not becuase it's a bad gig. Antoine Walker isn't broke because he didn't make enough because of how much money he made as a rookie. Rumeal Robinson would be broke if he went pro after 1 year or stayed for 4. That is a seperate issue entirely.
If you're an idiot a 4-year degree isn't going to make you not an idiot.
I recall you're very optimistic when it comes to football recruits and walk-ons, so it's surprising you're so down on Darius.
He did pretty well in the D-League and is back in the NBA now. According to wiki, he's appeared on a TV show, so maybe that leads to something eventually - who knows? Compared to the typical kid, he's doing really well.
College football and NBA basketball are very different.
Very rarely do guys come in as rookies, get bumped to the D-league, and then do anything meaningful in the league. It happens, but not often. I hope Darius the best, but I think his decision was stupid and I hope Burke doesn't do the same thing.
Very rarely to walk-ons do anything meaningful at Michigan. In that regard it's the same.
It's true that most 2nd round picks don't end up having long successful NBA careers. But that's largely reality either way. The NBA drafts on potential, not production. Darius was not going to magically become a 1st rounder. Certainly not in the 2012 draft - if anything his stock probably would have fallen given the depth this year, his age, and... for all we know Burke could have proved the more effective player. How would that have looked?
You'd have to be very naive to think coming back to MIchigan was going to turn Darius into a better basketball player than he is today.
The D-league is relatively new, so it's hard to draw conclusions about it, but Darius is already back after playing 1 game there.
FWIW, I agree with you on Burke. I think his pro prospects are beneath Darius', therefore I hope he sticks it out at Michigan and gets his degree. I don't think he's an NBA player. But that being the case - if his plan is to go pro next year or the year after...I think he might as well do it now. His 'potential' will never be higher.
I think Burke is better than Morris or Manny
I think Burke might go in the first round and so does he, which is why he is checking it out to find out what the real evaluations for him are. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Burke go and get drafted in the first round
Burke is not the quickest PG out there but he is well built, strong, smart, committed and highly skilled. He might just be a really good NBA PG. He is more in the Andre Miller mode in that he is not fast but he might just be quick enough to be effective. Then again Burke's game may not translate to the NBA, but he will not greatly enhance his draft status by coming back again next season IMO
My boy Royce White on Iowa State recently jumped 81 spots on one sites recruiting ranking, going from 101 to 20 in the upcoming NBA draft, so Burke's status could change greatly by time the draft rolls around.
First round? Uh, no.
Gordie - there are really only two things that affect where a guy gets taken in the draft - how many teams need guys at his position, and how many guys project to be better NBA players than him. The NBA is very deep at PG, and this draft has a ton of NBA ready talent in it. He will not be anywhere near the first round, I'll bet all my MGoPoints on it.
Until Burke gets to the pre-draft camps and competes with other possible draftees, I'm not convinced of your thoughts. You may be right, but I wouldn't doubt this kid, not for a minute. What Burke did this year as a frosh was incredible.
I suppose it's mostly a difference of opinion, but for how good Trey was, he wasn't "national star" good, which is what you need to be to get drafted in the first round. Trey wasn't first team all big ten or on any all-american lists either. He was a solid player, one of the better freshmen in the country, and probably a top-10 PG nationally, but not top-5, and he's certainly not a top-30 player overall.
Burke was second team AA, saw it posted here a week or so ago. He ain't gonna improve much on that.
Second team All American? Or freshman All American? I do not think Burke was a second team All American on anyone's list.
OK, I obviously missed that thread, and I didn't know CBS sports put out an AA list, so you're right in that he showed up on someone's AA list. However, of the 10 or so of those that I looked up before posting, he wasn't even on anyone's third team, so he's far from consensus.
Manny has one NBA-level talent: a quick first step that makes him a dangerous penetrator. That skill is enough to get him a look.
Morris has vision, handle, and NBA-size. His weaknesses are shot and athleticism - and the shot part can be taught.
Burke has no NBA-ready skill, he's strong, but he has to be since he's short. He is mature, composed, and has a balanced overall skill-set, but nothing that makes him an NBA player. That's not a profile that gets you drafted real high. It's also not a profile that suggests his draft stock will rise appreciably by returning to college (unlike, for example, a kid like Royce White, who could put himself into top 5 position if he answers the character issues by proving reliable for another season at ISU.)
Morris was way more like Miller than Burke is.
I never did buy the Andre Miller, Darius Morris comparisons. Miller is a straight ahead strong PG. Andre Miller when at Utah reminded me more of a PG Vinnie Johnson, their shots even resembled
I've always seen Darius Morris as a Mateen Cleaves type college point guard, not quick enough or skilled enough to translate to the NBA, but a really good college player
Nearly identical. Miller is NOTHING like Johnson - he's a horrible shooter to this day.
Morris, like Miller, is crafty. He can score in the interior and with his back to the basket. He can rebound a bit (though not like Miller). Cleeves has some similarities with the two in that he's a distributor without great quickness or jump shot, but he was too small for the NBA given his skillset and lack of jumper.
Miller's game is nothing like Vinny's but physically they remind me of each other, especially when I would watch Miller get in the lane and shoot that ugly jumper. I would say damn he reminds me of Vinny
in terms of skill set, court vision and size. Burke is no where like Miller. He's much smaller than Miller and is a much better shooter than Miller. Burke will greatly enhance his draft status by coming back and show that he can run pick and roll against hard hedge. To me, Burke is a UDFA unlike Manny and Darius who are already projected as a late 1st to early 2nd rounder.
Royce White is a different case study because he is a freakish athlete at 6'9" who can do everything like shoot, ball handling, pass, etc. Not a good comparision at all. Royce White has lottery pick talent with big time concerns on his mental health.
in his last two games. I will say that he did play better against OHIO, than he did ohio, but he still didn't play well enough to garner a 1st round choice, in a deep draft. He could certainly use another year of college ball...
Does anyone else believe that someone associated with the Michigan program is trolling us by giving horribly, horribly bad draft advice to our football and bball players?
It's not someone associated with the program. There are slimy agents everywhere.
no offense but this is not news, everybody but the agents who are chirping in his ear thinks he should stay, probably at least 2 more years. Problem is kids sometimes do dumb things.
NBA Execs are incentivized to have as much "supply" (or players) as they can for 2 reasons.
1) To use as bargaining power with all players
2) To grow the NBA D-League.
I know this Ecec said to stay, but how many encourage borderline players to go pro? Also, agents...
March 21st, 2012 at 11:34 PM ^
1) Deron Williams's contract negotiations are not influenced by the availability of additional replacement-level point guards, and replacement-level point guards already make relative peanuts and are readily available in the 22+ age bracket.
2) Nobody gives a shit about the D-League, including NBA brass.
March 21st, 2012 at 11:12 PM ^
Hate to say it but I think he's gone. If he is being told he's "18-24" first round and he actually believes it then he'd be stupid to stay.
But he's not going 18-24 first round. He's not even going to get drafted period and unfortunately I see yet another flushing of a possible great career about to occur.
Thank you Agents. Thank you leech friends. Without you in place kids like Manny and Darius and soon to be Trey might actually have had a decent career.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:37 AM ^
The argument that a player has already peaked by age 20 and therefore may as well get paid now, ignores the examples of some of the game's greatest professional players. Guys like Jordon, Isiah, and Kareem were constantly adding to repertoire deep into their careers.
The fact is the NBA is a very hard environment to rise from a position of perceived second-hand status. You need to start out at the top of the heap or simply build your game until you are at that status, then jump in. You want to secure a high value entry-point.
In college, a guy who is already a star but would be a lower draft pick has a lot more freedom to experiment and add to his game in real live competition. If he isn't a clear top half of the first round guy, he'll go pro and get buried on a depth chart, play scattered minutes, and not have the in-game freedom to show what he can really do.
Then he'll be a journeyman while the teams look for the next undiscovered superstar in the next draft.
I think Burke is going to stay. He already said that he is leaning towards staying, and when he sees that advisors think his draft stock could rise if he comes back he will probably decide to comeback.
Then again the person that posted two before me makes a valid point, If he really thinks that he's going to be a first rounder then I don't know what would keep him here. Lets hope he gets some good advice. If he really can go 18-24 then good for him. Sure I want him to come back just as much as everyone else, but I really can't blame him for going pro if he's a first round pick.