NBA Big Board

Submitted by rmic2 on March 28th, 2014 at 11:43 AM

SI updated their NBA draft big board today:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20140328/nba-big-board-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker-joel-embiid/?eref=sihp

Stauskas' stock continues to rise as he looks more and more like a lottery pick. His only issue is defense - which tons of players coming into the NBA have that issue.

The good news (selfishly for us) is no mention of Robinson or McGary.

In summary - not much here that we didn't already know. Stauskas is likely 95% gone, and Robinson/McGary are probably 50/50.

Comments

joeyb

March 28th, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^

At this point, McGary is probably a second rounder. In his 2 years in Ann Arbor, he's had a 6-game stretch that has been up to his potential. He likely needs to show more than that if someone is going to guarantee a contract with him.

I could see Robinson be in that range, though, especially if we continue our run and he's a big reason why.

maize-blue

March 28th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^

I'm not the biggest basketball guru but I can't see McGary not coming back for at least 1 more season. Is one freshman season and then missing one season becasue of injury enough for NBA teams to take him?

Cali Wolverine

March 28th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^

...as a late 1st round draft pick....Mitch weighs choice of coming back to Michigan and risk suffering another injury (which would significantly lower his draft value) or jumping to the NBA for a lot of guaranteed money. That would be a scenario.

It seems like Mitch really loves Michigan and college, but if he could do it all over again, you would be foolish not to think he would have left last year for the NBA.

Wolverine 73

March 28th, 2014 at 12:17 PM ^

I see no reason why an NBA team would not take a chance on him in the lower part of round 1.  You have a chance at a top 10 talent and if he ends up with back issues, so it goes.  It isn't as if the trypical late first rounder becomes more than a marginal NBA guy--and with Mitch you would have a chance at a star.

repole

March 28th, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^

I tend to agree. Love McGary as a college player, but from a pro perspective, I thought the biggest key for him this year was showing that he could hit a mid range shot (and free throw) reliably. He didn't show a ton of that early on, and since of course he's been injured. If I were grading him from a NBA stand point:

Pros:
Terrific finisher.
Quality rebounder.
NBA ready body.
Great motor all around.

Cons:
Limited back to the basket game.
Questionable jumpshot.
Not a great rim protector.

If you look around the league for guys like Mitch, most of them are third bigs who do well on the glass but are a bit one dimensional. I think he has some considerable upside if he can figure out the mid range game reliably, perhaps have a David Lee type impact, but I wouldn't bank on him getting there. I'd happily take a flier on him in the 20s even with the back issue, but in an especially deep draft I can certainly understand him sliding to the 2nd.

Muttley

March 28th, 2014 at 3:44 PM ^

Once you get to the very late first round, a solid contributor is not a wasted pick. 

"guys like Mitch, most of them are third bigs who do well on the glass but are a bit one dimensional."

That's more valuable than an all-around player who doesn't bring anything to the table worth keeping on the team.  Which is what the second round usually features.

(MItch didn't have meat claw hands this year, which is likely due to his back/core issues.)

repole

March 28th, 2014 at 4:26 PM ^

Totally agree, my point is mainly that those one dimensional types tend to go late 1st early 2nd in a deep draft. I think McGary has some more upside than a typical late 1st round pick, but his health status likely offsets that for a lot of teams.

As for the all-around solid guy vs the great at one thing guy, the all around guy is certainly riskier, but can pay off with a guy like Hardaway Jr. when one of their skills hits that next level, or can totally flame out.

Wolverine 73

March 28th, 2014 at 4:07 PM ^

The guy was picked as a pre-season All-American.  Apparently, a lot of people who choose those guys viewed him as one of the top 5 players in college ball.  That's top ten in my book.  He has great energy, he rebounds well, handles the ball well, is a very good passer, can score inside and has a decent shot.  Not sure what more you want.

alum96

March 28th, 2014 at 12:42 PM ^

You nailed it.  Mitch has a VERY difficult choice. 

If I am the San Antonio Spurs or Miama Heat and saw Mitch was a potential 15-20 pick after his freshman year and he falls to me at 29-30 or whatever, he seems far too enticing to pass up.  My choice is mid first round value for end of first round pick, with downside of injury.  Or do I go for another 6'3 guard of borderline talent of which the NBA is full of them.

As for Mitch his decision is do I come back and play myself into a top 10 pick OR do I risk injury... and if its a back injury I am tagged as major damaged goods and might not get a NBA contract at all.

I really don't know what I would do in his shoes, and I feel for the kid.

white_pony_rocks

March 28th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^

But I'm sure Mitch remembers that after last years tournament he was projected as a lottery pick, so now he sees he is either late 1st or someplace in the 2nd, why would he not assume that coming back for another year and showing he can still do what he did last year will put him back in that lottery range?  The only reason he slipped is because he didn't play, so if he plays he moves back up.

turd ferguson

March 28th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^

For what it's worth, DraftExpress (updated Monday) has Stauskas ranked as the #18 prospect, McGary ranked as the #39 prospect, and Robinson ranked as the #44 prospect.

LSAClassOf2000

March 28th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^

(LINK) - Gary Parrish updated his own rankings and those are here. Hopefully, the list is still sorted by school as prescribed in the link. 

In any case, for Michigan, he has Stauskas at #15, Mitch McGary at #35 and Glenn Robinson III at #39. It looks like Michigan and Michigan State are the best represented schools in the Big Ten far and away on his listing. 

WolvinLA2

March 28th, 2014 at 11:52 AM ^

Yeah - this list only going to 20 doesn't say much.  Nobody thinks those guys are top-20, but being in the next 10 makes a huge difference.  Especially if some of the guys on that list say they're coming back.

UofM Die Hard …

March 28th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^

dont play D in the NBA so Nik will be fine.  IMO Nik is unfortunatley ready .... sad face

 

I hope Mitch and GRIII stay, it would only increase their stock next year and increase their cash flow....if GRIII can round out that dribble drive game, he is a 1st rounder next year.

 

Lets keep this run going fellas...Hail!

 

Jordan Morgan gonna quite this Vol bigs tonight 

Willhouse

March 28th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^

Sorry, I hate that statement and had to jump in.

They DEFINITELY play defense in the NBA. To say they don't is a misinformed generalization. If you play on the wing and you cannot stay in front of your man, you won't play very long. Now obviously, if you score 20+ppg and can pull down some boards, there are ways to "help" on D and keep you on the floor, so there are exceptions - maybe Nik would be one.

I suggest reading this lengthy and informative article on how important defense is in the NBA.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-delicate-balance-of-an-nba-defens…

Michigan4Life

March 28th, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^

couldn't be any farther from the truth.

NBA has a rule where you can't hand check and play zone defense to some degree. There's way more spacing in NBA than in college where you can literally pack the paint and make it difficult to shoot inside the arc.  Plus there are ton of offensively gifted players who can really shoot even against great defensive pressure. They make it look so easy because they are one of the best player in the world at scoring.

Saying they don't play defense is false.  It's extremely difficult to defend given the NBA rule and the scoring proefficiency of NBA players. 

Imagine you being an average joe trying to guard against a division 1 basketball player.  You tried hard to play defense but he scores on you with ease.  Does that mean you don't play defense?

UofM Die Hard …

March 28th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^

and you make good points, some/most players you just cant defend.  But you also enhance my point a bit...the defensive rules in the NBA are hard for me to understand.  No hand checking?  The rules, not the players make it that defense is lacking in the NBA.  I guess I wrote my post wrong, players defend but the rules make the defensive side soft.  These guys are the best in the world and you dont allow hand checking, seems odd to me.  

 

 

I think Nik will do fine in the NBA......Klay Thompsonish but better penetration skills.  

 

UofM Die Hard …

March 28th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^

and you make good points, some/most players you just cant defend.  But you also enhance my point a bit...the defensive rules in the NBA are hard for me to understand.  No hand checking?  The rules, not the players make it that defense is lacking in the NBA.  I guess I wrote my post wrong, players defend but the rules make the defensive side soft.  These guys are the best in the world and you dont allow hand checking, seems odd to me.  

 

 

I think Nik will do fine in the NBA......Klay Thompsonish but better penetration skills.  

 

Willhouse

March 28th, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^

I'll give you that. The league is far away from the days of the Bad Boys defense, where you could basically beat someone senseless and not get a technical. Now guys are getting flagrants for breathing too hard on other guys. But scoring went down in the late 90s and people were tuning out, so the game and rules change so it has become much more of an offensive game for the sake of viewership.

I'll get off my soapbox now - I just get aggravated when people hate on the NBA for the wrong reasons (they don't play defense, they are all thugs, etc.)

Leaders And Best

March 28th, 2014 at 1:31 PM ^

If they don't play defense in the NBA, where do they play defense? You may not like the style of the NBA, but the NBA remains the most competitive and highest level of the game. And it's not close. You can't hide bad defenders in the NBA like in college. It's much harder to cheat off opposing players on defense in the NBA because the players are more skilled--which makes it harder to play defense. There's a reason an NBA scout said this about Stauskas:

One scout called his defensive potential in the NBA "a nightmare," but if he can develop into a serviceable defender, Stauskas' offense will make him a serious weapon.

Stauskas has the potential to be a huge liability on the defensive end right now. Have you seen Hardaway Jr play defense in the NBA right now? And he was light years ahead of Stauskas on defense.

WolvinLA2

March 28th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^

Agreed on those two (GRIII and McGary) staying - that's in their best interest.  Not because I want them to, though I do, but they have a lot of room to move up.  Moving up even 5 spots makes a huge difference in pay, and if those 5 spots means the difference between first and second round, it's enormous.  

gwkrlghl

March 28th, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^

Of the five guys in the 2012 class, four are projected to be 1st rounders. Last year's team may ultimately end up featuring six first round draft picks.

All Day

March 28th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^

FWIW, Lavert is the #21 pick on the 2015 Draft Express mock.

I'm not completely sold on any of the 3 leaving after this year. I really think they love being in school and want to win a NC.

Dubs

March 28th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't 2nd round picks non-guaranteed?  If that is the case, would that be an incentive to wait until then to draft someone of McGary's resume:  "potential, but injury concerns"?  Maybe it is wishful thinking on my part, but I'm curious at what point to GM's start to weigh talent/potential versus the overall fiscal impact of the pick.

Then again, I may be over-thinking it...

bluesalt

March 28th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^

2nd round picks do not have a slot value and guaranteed two years like first rounders due per the CBA. However, they can negotiate a contract with the team that drafts them. Most end up getting paid the minimum for 2-4 years, with 0-3 years being guaranteed, but it's all negotiation. Draymond Green received two guaranteed years at about 90% of what the last first rounder would have made (and about double the rookie minimum). Kyle Singler went to Europe during the lockout, and came back and signed for a three-year deal that exceeded what the last first rounder made. On the other hand, some late second-round picks are offered completely unguaranteed deals, or are not offered contracts at all. Being an early second-rounder is generally not that bad compares to being a late first-rounder. In a few cases, it's better, because you can negotiate hitting free agency earlier than the first rounder. Draymond Green will have made about 90% of what the last first-rounder made, but he'll hit free agency a year earlier. If he performs well, as he has so far, he'll come out ahead.

funkywolve

March 28th, 2014 at 1:59 PM ^

Looking at last years draft a lot of trhe 2nd round players aren't in the NBA.  A quick look shows there were 23 college players drafted in the 2nd round last year.  Of those, 9 have never played in the NBA - most of these are playing ovreseas.  Of the remaining 14, most have bounced between the D League and the NBA.  Those 14 probably have NBA contracts but if you're bouncing between the NBA and the D-League your long term prospects for an NBA career probably aren't looking good.

bluesalt

March 28th, 2014 at 5:26 PM ^

Was a notoriously bad draft. It isn't surprising that second rounders from it would command less. This is a deeper draft. I'd expect the first few second rounders will get contracts that won't make them regret leaving college.

1989 UM GRAD

March 28th, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^

It's easy to make the argument for either scenerio.

For every Trey Burke that came back and improved his draft status, there's a Sullinger who came back and hurt his status.

GRIII and Mitch both seemed to be 1st round locks last year...and now they came back and played (or not played) themselves in to 2nd round picks.

If Michigan is still playing in April, it'll be in large part due to GRIII stepping up.  He could play himself back in to the 1st round...and, if he does, he's gone.

As for Mitch, there's gotta be a late-picking team that would take a chance on him in the latter part of the 1st round...assuming his back checks out.

Michigan4Life

March 28th, 2014 at 1:46 PM ^

because of medical red flag on his back.  Some team doctor advised him not to take him at 1st round.

Not sure about Greg Oden's medical red flag pre-draft but one of his leg is slightly shorter than the other which is why he has knee problems.  The Trailblazers might have either ignored the red flag or gambled that it wasn't a big problem.

LesMilesismyhero

March 28th, 2014 at 2:25 PM ^

It's hard to say what McGary could do next season to improve his draft stock.  Even if McGary had the kind of season Sullinger had as a Freshman and Sophomore, McGary would still have the same back injury risk hanging over his head that lead Sullinger to be a late first round pick.

In B1G play McGary is 19% usg 109 ORTG and 92.1 DRTG

Sullinger had two years of 26.6% usg 118.3 ORTG and 89.5 DRTG.

In other words this might be as high as McGary's draft stock will be from this point forward.  Coming back could be another huge risk for him and I'd hate to watch him make the same mistake twice.  Well it'd be great to watch him in the maize and blue, but part of me would feel terrible for my enjoyment coming at the expense of his future.

WolvinLA2

March 28th, 2014 at 3:42 PM ^

But it's not just about 3 statistics.  Sullinger had two full seasons worth of tape to look at, as a starter for all of it.  McGary has about 10 starts to his name and maybe one season worth of PT.  That's not much.  McGary is likely an end of 1st, or second round player right now.  He has a lot of room to improve on that, and likely will even if all he does is put together one healthy season.

funkywolve

March 28th, 2014 at 2:53 PM ^

While he probably lost some money by staying in school a year longer, he might have ended up in a better situation.  If you're going in the first ten picks, you're probably going to a team that isn't very good and a team (as well as fans) that is going to expect you to make significant contributions. 

Sullinger fell and was drafted by Celtics - a veteran team with guys who could show Sullinger the ropes.  Sullinger wasn't expected to come in and start and light up the nba.  He got to come off the bench and learn from the veterans.

alum96

March 28th, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^

He was mocked around 10-14 last year too.  Basically same stock as last year.  The one who moved up is Payne who was late 1st last year, last 1st most of this year but his recent performance has him moving up to mid 1st now.   The main question with him is he is a 23 year old playing a lot of 18-20 year olds - will he be able to do these things against men... but right now he is playing like a poor man's Rasheed Wallace so you have to give him props.