MSU's Strengths and Weaknesses By the #s
I will do a longer post in diaries with some more prose attached (and compare to UM's data points) but since it gets 10% of the viewership of the main board I'll just post the data points here.
tl;dr - while less efficient then recent vintages, its still a team that values the ball among the best in the country (3 TO in 6 games), creates lots of turnovers, creates splash plays on D (TFL, sacks), and somehow is not penalized much at all. Special teams is a complete joke. (nice hire of your old fired friend from Texas A&M to take over ST Mark!) The 1 major weakness on D is the place UM is weakest on O (no surprise). MSU's passing game is not efficient but is big play in nature. They have been getting themselves in some 3rd and medium to longs this year more often then the past, but find ways to convert at very high levels.
Things MSU is Good At
Natl rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
3rd down conversion % | 8 | 50% | |
Passes Had Intecepted | 10 | 2 | |
Passing yds per comp | 28 | 13.7 | |
Fumbles lost | 2 | 1 | |
Sacks allowed / game | 8 | 0.67 | |
TFL allowed / game | 20 | 4.5 | |
Defense | |||
Fumbles recovered | 23 | 5 | |
Passes Intecepted | 36 | 6 | |
Red zone defense | 29 | 76.5% | |
Rushing defense | 34 | 130.2 | |
Sacks / game | 7 | 3.5 | |
Tackles for loss / game | 23 | 7.5 | |
Misc / Special Teams | |||
Blocked kicks | 5 | 2 | |
Fewest Penalties/Game | 17 | 4.7 | |
Fewest Penalty Yds/Game | 6 | 35.3 | |
TOP | 24 | 32:26 | |
Turnover Margin / game | 8 | 1.33 | |
Turnover lost | 4 | 3 |
Things MSU is Not Good At
Natl rank | Value | ||
Offense | |||
Completion % | 70 | 60% | |
Passing Offense | 76 | 222.3 | |
Red zone offense | 89 | 80% | |
Total offense | 72 | 397.3 | |
Defense | |||
Passing Yds Allowed | 88 | 242 | |
Misc / Special Teams | |||
Blocked kicks Allowed | 120 | 3 | |
Kickoff return defense | 71 | 21.5 | |
Kickoffs returns | 86 | 20 | |
Net punting | 104 | 35 | |
Punt return defense | 119 | 16.1 | |
Punt returns | 124 | 1 | |
October 12th, 2015 at 10:05 PM ^
Fingers crossed that Harbaugh has been keeping the long passing plays shelved and Ruddock is ready to unleash his inner Tom Brady on Saturday.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:30 PM ^
Ruτ♪ock
October 12th, 2015 at 10:31 PM ^
Fingers are crossed that he can finally hit those wide open receivers on deep routes. Hopefully it was a timing issue.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
He looked better on Saturday. Maybe it really was windy all those other games.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:34 PM ^
that after 6 games in which he's played better and better we could actually spell the kid's name right.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^
Tell you what, for every TD bomb he throws, we'll take off a "d".
Here's hoping he's Ruock by the time of the OSU game.
October 12th, 2015 at 11:09 PM ^
Whenever someone puts too many D's in Jake's name, I always read it as Andy Bernard from The Office saying "Roo-doo-doo-dudoo"-dock. It makes our embarassing mistakes fun.
October 13th, 2015 at 8:24 AM ^
I went to high school with Andy and Kevin from The Office. Just saying.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:05 PM ^
We finish with close to 200 yards on the ground. I also think we're going to end up with about 18 sacks, their line is beat up.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:27 PM ^
That sack number is way too high. That line is banged up but I don't see anyway we get more than 12-14 sacks.
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October 12th, 2015 at 10:31 PM ^
I was thinking 18 initially, but I guess that once they are down 327-0 they will probably hand the ball off a bit. That will suppress the sack total
October 12th, 2015 at 10:32 PM ^
when MSU won't be able to run 12-14 offensive plays?
October 12th, 2015 at 10:06 PM ^
The 50% 3rd down conversion rate could arguably be the thing that's kept them undefeated. It's when Cook shines brightest. It's where we'll need to excel if we want to win the game.
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October 12th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^
Guess which team has the nation's #1 3rd down conversion defense at 18.8%?
Fascinating battle ...
I think that and their lack of turnovers + ability to create turnovers have saved their bacon. TO margin to me is the #1 stat in football to determine winning and losing. Ty Isaac learned that quickly. Utah is making a living off it this year.
October 12th, 2015 at 11:42 PM ^
the most Saturday. That's almost like one of the worst vs one of the best. I think the defense will destroy them anyway but special teams are a huge mismatch.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:29 PM ^
That Rutgers game, and cook was a monster on 3rd down. Receivers helped out, but he made all the throws. Getting off the field will be big for us
October 12th, 2015 at 10:53 PM ^
on 3rd down. many of them were long conversions and some required exceptional pitch and catch b/w cook and burbridge or their Z receiver. i was impressed.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:59 PM ^
That's great and all but it's also a point of discussion that they consistently found themselves in need of making that type of play late in a game against Rutgers...
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October 13th, 2015 at 7:03 AM ^
...but wasn't pressured as much as he will be Saturday. Also, Rutgers couldn't cover as tightly as our guys will. I see Cook eating some fake turf and throwing a couple of pics.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
The 50% 3rd down conversion rate could arguably be the thing that's kept them undefeated.
Absolutely. It is the only reason they were able to beat Rutgers. Just one more 3rd and long stop and Rutgers wins that game.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:08 PM ^
I think its safe to assume that the penalty stat will rise exponentially after this game.
October 12th, 2015 at 11:00 PM ^
What do you got for the o/u on personal foul penalties? I'm thinking 4 or 5.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
To beat 5 of their 6 opponents so far. Oregon being the best team they played. I am looking forward to seeing their stats drop-off significantly this week.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^
without the strength of schedule. The best team they've played is still Oregon -- who is 64th in S&P and 75th in SRS.
Amazing how poor they've been this year even with a good turnover margin. Did Brian and Ed ever agree how random turnovers are? A regression to the mean would mean disaster for MSU.
October 13th, 2015 at 7:06 AM ^
Most statisticians have turnovers between 90-95% random.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^
We must run the ball effectively. We must stop the passing game.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:28 PM ^
We must do good things. We must not do bad things.
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October 12th, 2015 at 11:11 PM ^
That's what I was getting at!
October 12th, 2015 at 10:17 PM ^
We will win. Going away. Cook will be exposed as a fraud. HARBAUGH!
October 12th, 2015 at 10:20 PM ^
To me the game boils down to jourdan Lewis vs. burbridge. Pro football focus has that as the #1 cb vs #2 wr in college football.
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October 13th, 2015 at 7:06 AM ^
"dropsy" on Saturday - result of tighter coverage.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
And some fierce hits.
October 13th, 2015 at 8:22 AM ^
Cook will be pressured, it's not even a question at this point. So I can see him try to force a ball to a well-covered Burbridge at some point...I like Lewis' chances to get a pick at some point.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:24 PM ^
As we saw in the Rutgers game, brutal special teams play has helped put MSU in some bad spots in the first six weeks of the season. Hopefully, that is something we can exploit this coming Saturday. That goes for passing yards allowed too - a couple years ago, there is no way that some of these teams can throw on MSU all day, but hopefully we can do that very thing.
Very informative, OP.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^
PEPPERSOON.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:31 PM ^
But can we finally defend the double A gap blitz?
I fully expect a heavily stacked box all game. I think we will need some success passing downfield or a genius offensive gamelan.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
Can't go w/ a cheap one like
Gotta go with one more like
October 12th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
This is the main reason why we lost the last two games against them. GAPS. I am hoping for Smith to find the gaps and mow them over.
October 13th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
I am salivating at the prospect of a Michigan FB popping out of the line while an MSU A-gap blitzer charges right past him as he waves goodbye.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:42 PM ^
Not wishing injuries, but if we continue the current trend, MSU will be all 2nd and 3rd string by the 4th quarter. We aren't just crushing the scorebaord, we're crushing the injury difference during the games. And as MSU fans are very quick to explain, they aren't.
How many people has this team sent limping off the field (if they're lucky) the last couple weeks? I could remember at least 3 for each of the last 3 games, and probably the same before that. Probably a good thread idea to look into that.
October 12th, 2015 at 11:04 PM ^
I noticed this, too.
October 13th, 2015 at 12:04 AM ^
I've noticed this. Even Bronco Mendenhall was quoted saying something to the effect of "that was a strong and violent football team and they just physically injured us". Bronco Mendenhall.
October 12th, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^
Seems like strength of schedule makes a huge difference here.
State is 89 while our SOS is 28.
Their good stats aren't so good and bad stats even worse as they've played a much weaker slate.
October 12th, 2015 at 11:16 PM ^
Our Spartan friends would remind you that Michigan's SOS is deceptively inflated. BYU was equal parts exhausted/lucky/overrated when we played them. NU had a strong resume on paper only, but the eyeball test said they were destined to fall to a mediocre opponent. The one team we played with a pulse beat us soundly. In fact, the only reason Utah was able to roll the ducks by 6 TDs was because Oregon was so demoralized by their beating at the hands of MSU. Please stop disrespecting them so much.
October 13th, 2015 at 7:04 AM ^
TIL that losing on a pick 6 is getting beat "soundly"
October 13th, 2015 at 8:29 AM ^
BYU may have been exhausted, but that's a really flimsy excuse for anyone to get beaten 31-0.
Northwestern had ONE weak game against Ball State. They've looked good otherwise. I know it's Northwestern, but there's no such thing as "destined to fall". That's a load of bs. And a nice circular reason to think of M as mediocre in the face of all evidence otherwise.
We've done something that no team has done in two decades. Not even by Nick Saban's Alabama. And the last time it was done by a team who played 3 terrible opponents with 8 combined wins all year. State fans are welcome to downplay our opponents so far, but even when you do that...good luck ignoring the significance of 3 shutouts in a row.
October 13th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
I think Bluebells was just goofing. I checked multiple SOS sources and they're fairly consistent. The "BYU was tired" thing is always good for a chuckle, especially given that the line before the game (which we crushed) certainly took into account the fact that they might be "tired".
October 12th, 2015 at 10:51 PM ^
We're going to get a big play on special teams. They suck in that area while we're now really good.
October 12th, 2015 at 11:14 PM ^
we may not need the big play out of them, just the consistency. O'Neill is a weapon regularly forcing offenses to face the prospect of a long field against our defense. Coverage is excellent. And Peppers sometimes saves 10 - 20 yards per catch on punt returns.
While the Chesson kickoff return was awesome, these are worth more to a winning effort than it might appear during a game.