MSU's Strengths and Weaknesses By the #s

Submitted by alum96 on

I will do a longer post in diaries with some more prose attached (and compare to UM's data points) but since it gets 10% of the viewership of the main board I'll just post the data points here.

tl;dr - while less efficient then recent vintages, its still a team that values the ball among the best in the country (3 TO in 6 games), creates lots of turnovers, creates splash plays on D (TFL, sacks), and somehow is not penalized much at all.  Special teams is a complete joke.  (nice hire of your old fired friend from Texas A&M to take over ST Mark!)  The 1 major weakness on D is the place UM is weakest on O (no surprise).  MSU's passing game is not efficient but is big play in nature.  They have been getting themselves in some 3rd and medium to longs this year more often then the past, but find ways to convert at very high levels. 

 

Things MSU is Good At

    Natl rank Value
Offense      
3rd down conversion %   8 50%
Passes Had Intecepted   10 2
Passing yds per comp   28 13.7
Fumbles lost   2 1
Sacks allowed / game   8 0.67
TFL allowed / game   20 4.5
       
       
Defense      
Fumbles recovered   23 5
Passes Intecepted   36 6
Red zone defense   29 76.5%
Rushing defense   34 130.2
Sacks / game   7 3.5
Tackles for loss / game   23 7.5
       
       
Misc / Special Teams      
Blocked kicks   5 2
Fewest Penalties/Game   17 4.7
Fewest Penalty Yds/Game   6 35.3
TOP   24 32:26
Turnover Margin / game   8 1.33
Turnover lost   4 3

 

 

Things MSU is Not Good At

    Natl rank Value
Offense      
Completion %   70 60%
Passing Offense   76 222.3
Red zone offense   89 80%
Total offense   72 397.3
       
       
Defense      
Passing Yds Allowed   88 242
       
       
Misc / Special Teams      
Blocked kicks Allowed   120 3
Kickoff return defense   71 21.5
Kickoffs returns   86 20
Net punting   104 35
Punt return defense   119 16.1
Punt returns   124 1
       

 

readyourguard

October 12th, 2015 at 10:06 PM ^

The 50% 3rd down conversion rate could arguably be the thing that's kept them undefeated. It's when Cook shines brightest. It's where we'll need to excel if we want to win the game.




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alum96

October 12th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^

Guess which team has the nation's #1 3rd down conversion defense at 18.8%?

Image result for michigan wolverine defense

 

Fascinating battle ...

I think that and their lack of turnovers + ability to create turnovers have saved their bacon. TO margin to me is the #1 stat in football to determine winning and losing.  Ty Isaac learned that quickly.  Utah is making a living off it this year. 

 

mexwolv

October 12th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^

To beat 5 of their 6 opponents so far.  Oregon being the best team they played.  I am looking forward to seeing their stats  drop-off significantly this week.

Newton Gimmick

October 12th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^

without the strength of schedule.  The best team they've played is still Oregon -- who is 64th in S&P and 75th in SRS.

Amazing how poor they've been this year even with a good turnover margin.  Did Brian and Ed ever agree how random turnovers are?  A regression to the mean would mean disaster for MSU.

LSAClassOf2000

October 12th, 2015 at 10:24 PM ^

As we saw in the Rutgers game, brutal special teams play has helped put MSU in some bad spots in the first six weeks of the season. Hopefully, that is something we can exploit this coming Saturday. That goes for passing yards allowed too - a couple years ago, there is no way that some of these teams can throw on MSU all day, but hopefully we can do that very thing. 

Very informative, OP.

Fezzik

October 12th, 2015 at 10:31 PM ^

But can we finally defend the double A gap blitz?

I fully expect a heavily stacked box all game. I think we will need some success passing downfield or a genius offensive gamelan.

Michwolverinefreak

October 12th, 2015 at 10:42 PM ^

Not wishing injuries, but if we continue the current trend, MSU will be all 2nd and 3rd string by the 4th quarter. We aren't just crushing the scorebaord, we're crushing the injury difference during the games. And as MSU fans are very quick to explain, they aren't.

How many people has this team sent limping off the field (if they're lucky) the last couple weeks? I could remember at least 3 for each of the last 3 games, and probably the same before that. Probably a good thread idea to look into that.

123blue

October 12th, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^

Seems like strength of schedule makes a huge difference here.
State is 89 while our SOS is 28.
Their good stats aren't so good and bad stats even worse as they've played a much weaker slate.

Bluebells and maize

October 12th, 2015 at 11:16 PM ^

Our Spartan friends would remind you that Michigan's SOS is deceptively inflated. BYU was equal parts exhausted/lucky/overrated when we played them. NU had a strong resume on paper only, but the eyeball test said they were destined to fall to a mediocre opponent. The one team we played with a pulse beat us soundly. In fact, the only reason Utah was able to roll the ducks by 6 TDs was because Oregon was so demoralized by their beating at the hands of MSU. Please stop disrespecting them so much.

CompleteLunacy

October 13th, 2015 at 8:29 AM ^

BYU may have been exhausted, but that's a really flimsy excuse for anyone to get beaten 31-0.



Northwestern had ONE weak game against Ball State. They've looked good otherwise. I know it's Northwestern, but there's no such thing as "destined to fall". That's a load of bs. And a nice circular reason to think of M as mediocre in the face of all evidence otherwise.



We've done something that no team has done in two decades. Not even by Nick Saban's Alabama. And the last time it was done by a team who played 3 terrible opponents with 8 combined wins all year. State fans are welcome to downplay our opponents so far, but even when you do that...good luck ignoring the significance of 3 shutouts in a row.

123blue

October 13th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^

I think Bluebells was just goofing.  I checked multiple SOS sources and they're fairly consistent.  The "BYU was tired" thing is always good for a chuckle, especially given that the line before the game (which we crushed) certainly took into account the fact that they might be "tired".

SHub'68

October 12th, 2015 at 11:14 PM ^

we may not need the big play out of them, just the consistency. O'Neill is a weapon regularly forcing offenses to face the prospect of a long field against our defense. Coverage is excellent. And Peppers sometimes saves 10 - 20 yards per catch on punt returns.
While the Chesson kickoff return was awesome, these are worth more to a winning effort than it might appear during a game.