Money seems to be on UM in Wisc game.
I thought it was interesting that the line has moved from Wisc -5.5 to Wisc -4 in the last day. For those of you who are not gamblers that is a pretty big swing during the middle of the week. This is especially surprising given the news attention being on Wisc scoring 83 points last week.
Anybody have any theories on why this could have moved so much? My only thought was the news of J. Clay maybe not being ready to play.
Jamie?
November 17th, 2010 at 1:23 PM ^
I dont know how true this is
This is what everybody said in the lead up to the Illinois game, but every book I saw had way, way, way uneven action on the Illini
I have one season experience working as a book in the heart of Big 10 country and we wanted MIchigan to cover almost every week because people always bet against them. I named my blog Just Cover because my boss kept pleading it seemed every week, come the fuck on MIchigan just cover for once.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:12 PM ^
I'm Hard
November 17th, 2010 at 1:47 PM ^
**Regardless. Using irregardless is completely incorrect
November 17th, 2010 at 4:14 PM ^
correct but irregardless he used it.
November 17th, 2010 at 2:15 PM ^
Want to Hold my Rope?
Wait, this isn't MGayBlog? My bad...
November 17th, 2010 at 4:57 PM ^
What she said!
November 17th, 2010 at 1:23 PM ^
Reasons why the line could be shifting (other than the obvious):
1) Wiscy's 83 point death march on Indiana was shocking. Shocking enough to create a higher spread that is falling as the shock value wears off.
2) Whales are doing their analysis and noting that Wiscy hasn't won in Ann Arbor since some of the people on this board were born.
3) Whales doing analysis that shows "Michigan offense = better at home" and "Michigan defense = improved since making adjustments pre-Illini game".
Since there has not been major public news to cause this (e.g., "Another Wiscy RB out for Michigan" or "Tolzien out for game"), I have to think it's because of several larger bets being placed on Michigan.
Just my 2 cents. I have no insider info.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:46 PM ^
I'd expect the line to go back up.
That factoid about Wisky's November road record is interesting, but I still wouldn't put any money on Michigan. We will turn the ball over multiple times, and unless Wisconsin obliges us in similar fashion, I can't see us staying with them into the fourth quarter.
November 17th, 2010 at 2:10 PM ^
Last year we won the turnover margin by 1 and we even scored a defensive touchdown and we still lost by 21...
Granted we were on the road and our offense is significantly better now, but can we really keep them much under the 45 they put on us last year?
Note for the people who don't seem to care about John Clay playing or not playing, last year Clay put up 151 yards on us on 26 carries (5.8 ypc), while Monte Ball had 16 carries 62 yards (3.9 ypc)...I wouldn't mind seeing Clay on the sidelines again.
November 17th, 2010 at 4:22 PM ^
theres a good article on espn, talking about how wisconsin hast won at michigan since 1994 and hasnt won in the state of Michigan since 2002.
V
November 17th, 2010 at 5:09 PM ^
I had a lengthy discussion with a serious RRod hater this morning who knows that Michigan will get whacked this weekend. I offered to make a (for me) sizable bet if he gave me Michigan +14.5 -- and he took the bet. Amazing how negative UM fans are about this game.
November 17th, 2010 at 5:18 PM ^
I have been thinking about this all week. Reverse line movement in this instance would point toward Michigan being the smart bet. My gut and knowledge of the two teams make me think Wisconsin would be the smart play for those that bet. I just want Michigan to win, but this could be an indicator. The majority of Vegas money is on Wisconsin yet the line is going down AND Michigan is 0-6 ATS. False hope or not, this gave me a little confidence for saturday.