Money seems to be on UM in Wisc game.

Submitted by Ziff72 on November 17th, 2010 at 12:44 PM

I thought it was interesting that the line has moved from Wisc -5.5 to Wisc -4 in the last day.   For those of you who are not gamblers that is a pretty big swing during the middle of the week.  This is especially surprising given the news attention being on Wisc scoring 83 points last week. 

Anybody have any theories on why this could have moved so much?  My only thought was the news of J. Clay maybe not being ready to play. 

Jamie?

Comments

Ziff72

November 17th, 2010 at 1:03 PM ^

The thread isn't about the line.  I'm asking why the line is moving in Mich's favor.   Living in Michigan all the stuff I hear is we'll lose by 50 and Wisc. will have 500yds rushing and Denard will have 11 interceptions.    Based on that data the line movement is very strange.   That leads me to believe either Vegas whales are betting Michigan or a tout service is pumping up Michigan or we're so beat down here in Michigan that we can't objectively look at our team. 

BornInAA

November 17th, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^

every week we get dozens of post on the line and implications of the line or the weather and the effects of such weather at the game.

They should make a sticky "line" thread and a sticky "weather" thread to go with the sticky "where can I get tickets"  thread.

WestCBlue

November 17th, 2010 at 12:47 PM ^

are not how close or far apart the oddsmakers feel the game should actually be.  The line is set up so that as close to 50% of the money goes each way, that way the bets cancel each other and the 10% you are charged goes to the book and that's where they make their money.

I believe it indicates that more money is going on MI vs WI and they are adjusting due to that fact.

Also, WI traditionally does not play well in the state of MI, home game for MI, etc.

Ziff72

November 17th, 2010 at 12:54 PM ^

I know how gambling works.   The line moving that much tells you there is a lot of money on Michigan(hence the title of my thread).   The question is why the public would be all over Michigan considering our game against Purdue and Wiscy dominating the headlines with their blow out.   Logic would tell you the public would be on Wisc based on that info.  The line change  the other way leads me to believe, some big money players are on Mich.    

Tmuff

November 17th, 2010 at 1:53 PM ^

You're correct with your thoughts that the public would be hammering Wiscy, as about 80% of bets placed so far have been on them. However, the line is shifting in Wisconsin's favor. This is called reverse line movement and typically means the big money gamblers, or sharps, are on Michigan while the public, or squares on Wisconsin. It's generally a good idea to bet when you see reverse line movement but as always there are no guarantees. Google will provide more info if you would like

Don

November 17th, 2010 at 2:02 PM ^

what is it that the "sharps" are seeing in Michigan's play in contrast to Wisconsin's that would lead them to think taking the points and Michigan is a smart bet? Doesn't make sense to me.

bronxblue

November 17th, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^

I was going to say the same thing.  Vegas just wants equal action on both sides, and if money is funneling to Wiscy disproportionately the number will move to accomodate more money from Michigan.  My guess is that some of the drop is due to Clay being out and the fact that Wiscy hasn't won in A2 since the early years of the Clinton administration.  My sense, though, is that the number will tick back up if money starts to come in for UM.  It looked like a 5-6 point spread for most of the season.

EDIT:  This is a follow-up my first response:

I think the rush of the 83 points has disappaited from Wiscy and people are realizing that this team might be closer to the one that struggled to beat Purdue and had close games with Iowa, ASU, and MSU.  Wiscy is a VERY different team on the road this season, and so the point swing is probably in response to that realization.

Soulfire21

November 17th, 2010 at 12:53 PM ^

Who cares?

College football would look a lot different today if the games all went the way Vegas said.  I know it's fun to watch, but I wouldn't put almost anything in it.

Jeffy Fresh

November 17th, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^

Because the word is out that it is MOTHER FUCKING HARD EDGE WEEK!!!!  Only a fool would bet Wisconsin when we are going all out and ready to play smashmouth hard edge football.  The oddsmakers caught wind.

nedved963

November 17th, 2010 at 1:01 PM ^

There's a lot of negativity in here over this. It's completely legitimate to see that kind of swing, considering how ridiculously counter-intuitive it is. How many people looked at the line and thought "Almost a touchdown win for Wisconsin? not a chance" and put money on michigan.

It might be based on statistics because Michigan seems to have "lost" via the spread many weeks in a row and they might think that they're "due", especially given wisconsin's history in ann arbor and because the spread allows a field goal win for wisconsin to still be a winning bet on michigan.

Basically a lot of factors that don't pay attention to the intricacies of these exact iterations of the team.

jamiemac

November 17th, 2010 at 1:09 PM ^

Maybe it has something to do with Wisco's winning percentage of less than 30 percent in November road games? They're 9-22.

Otherwise, maybe my amatuerish analysis a couple of weeks ago that bettors like playing great rushing teams when they're an underdog has some validity.

RSTJ

November 17th, 2010 at 1:21 PM ^

His whole point is sharp money is coming in on Michigan already. You don't drop 2 points when everyone is betting the hell out of the favorite.  The sharps are dropping the big dough on Michigan, while the general public sees the 9-1 record and the top 10 ranking and immediatly assumes a 5 point spread is a joke.

 

Home dogs are notorious for covering, the Indiana game last week was a fluke, as have been the 5 TO games we've had the last week.

Michigans offense has proven time and time again they can score with everyone. If you cut out some of the mental mistakes and don't hand the ball over 5 times + a steadily improving (albeit catestrophic) defense that makes a stop or two during the game and you have a shootout.

 

There are a lot of reasons to call this a close game...