Mid Season Reality vs. Expectations

Submitted by NashvilleBLUE on October 30th, 2018 at 6:41 PM

I was looking back at some pre-season pontification to try to remember what people were saying about this team and I started to compare my own expectations vs how it has played out. I am going to list a few things that surprised me and I am curious about yours as well. I doesn’t have to be win/loss, it could be player, coaches, etc. 

 

Chris Evans - I thought it would be a 1 &1a situation, but it’s clear that Higdon is the man and the coaching staff trusts him exponentially more than the other backs. That fumble against MSU wasn’t great.

Gentry - I expected a step forward, but I think he’s actually exceeded my expectations. He’s a legit receiving threat and his blocking has greatly improved

K. Hudson - I am guessing it’s more our own scheme changes coupled with opponents game planning for him, but I’m surprised his stats didn’t pick up where they left off last year

D. Bush - I knew he would be good, but he’s venturing into “best LB I’ve ever watched in person” territory

Metellus - After the Ohio State dropped interception, I was hoping he would be passed on the depth chart and we’d see a new face this year. Now, he’s one of my favorite players and probably the 3rd best defensive player. 

J. Hudson - umm...yea...not how I saw that playing out

Warrrinnner - Maybe I’m overstating it, but I can’t remember a single non-head-coach-or-coordinator hire that has made that big of a year over year positive impact. I love his production and his personality. 

Lastly, since I really would rather read y’alls thoughts, I’ll only add one more: 

Will Freaking Hart. My biggest question mark going into the season was “WTF are we going to do with our punting situation since Robbins and Hart were abysmal last year”. Turns out, Hart is now an animal and it’s Nordin I’m most concerned with.

anyway, what say you folks?

 

LKLIII

October 31st, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^

Really?

You move the goal posts THAT much during the course of a season?

Sure, I'd love to go 11-1 and go to the CFP.  But if you tell me we go 10-2 with loses to just ND and PSU but we beat OSU in Columbus and win a Big Ten Championship in Indy & go to a Rose Bowl, that's a pretty damned good season.

You lay out that scenario in August and 99.9% of use would have taken that deal in a New York Minute.

People have been bitching that Harbaugh can't beat OSU and that Michigan hasn't won the Big Ten in a dozen years.  Then, when we beat OSU and win the Big Ten, it immediately becomes, "what a disappointing season because we didn't go to the CFP."

Blows my mind.

 

Newton Gimmick

November 1st, 2018 at 12:05 AM ^

Yes, at this point, any loss before the playoff would be disappointing.  It's about what could have been.  PSU and OSU are down enough that we should win those games.

If we finish 10-2 with a loss to PSU, but beat OSU and win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl, etc., it's hard to be unhappy overall with the season.  There will always be that what-if though.

I think you're overreacting to my comment, and your mind shouldn't be blown.  I'm pretty happy with Harbaugh generally and am not a hot-take dispenser.

JPC

October 30th, 2018 at 6:46 PM ^

I agree about Warriner. I expected an improvement, but I thought it would be incremental. This seems like a whole different group of players than what we saw in the bowl game. 

mfan_in_ohio

October 30th, 2018 at 8:59 PM ^

I think the Warinner turnaround has been equally impressive.  Keep in mind the 2011 defense couldn't stop Notre Dame at all in UTL I without Rees' help.  Did they even punt in that game?  And at the end of the year, a mediocre OSU team led by Adam Sandler and a freshman QB put up 34.  Also we didn't encounter any elite offenses in 2011, as the top two offenses we faced by S&P+ standards were #19 Western Michigan and #20 Notre Dame.  That OSU offense was #65.

Michigan went from 81st in 2010 to 23rd in 2011 in defensive S&P+, which is a great improvement, while Michigan has gone from 85th in 2017 to 29th in 2018 in offensive S&P+.  The 2017 line was 104th or worse in all three sack rate categories last year, including 117th in adjusted sack rate.  This year: 46th in adjusted sack rate, 43rd on passing downs.  Obviously Shea Patterson plays a role with his feet and by getting the ball out faster, but last year's line got two QBs seriously injured and lost its best player, and suddenly the line has gone from glaringly obvious weakness to seemingly solid.  This while playing a schedule that has included the #6 overall defense in Notre Dame (admittedly our worst performance) and the #14 offense in Sparty (400 yards of offense and only 2 sacks).  

As for individual improvement, look no further than the tackles.  Runyan went from backup guard/right tackle to an unspectacular but solid starting left tackle.  JBB was written off by many around here, then was a placeholder for a few weeks while Hudson got ready, and turned out to be a road-grading right tackle.  Missed assignments are infrequent, blocking schemes look coherent and effective, and even Stueber was able to step in as a backup and have a solid quarter against an elite run defense.  

I was hoping for the OL to improve from atrocious to mediocre in pass blocking, and to be good to great at run blocking.  I don't think we are quite "great" at run blocking, but the pass blocking has gone far beyond even where it was in week 1.  

canzior

October 31st, 2018 at 9:20 AM ^

Mmm...i think this is the difference between digging into stats and the eye test. ND scored twice in the 1st, 1 once in the 3rd and once in the 4th on a busted coverage. They punted 4 times.  And rivalry games have a tendency to be a little odd.

I think the feeling was different though because the last defenses we witnessed were the Gerg and RR defenses, and the improvement we saw was tremendous in just one year. I think because tackles have been an issue for so long, that it's nice to finally have some.  Fixing an entire defense to me is a much bigger deal. I remember back in 2013 Michigan was teaching very basic defensive line drills which paled in comparison to what MSU was teaching, which made sense because their d-line was a problem those years. I think with both the OL and the defense, there is such an attention to detail that has been lacking.  The diary topic by StephenJRKing or something is a great example of this. 

NashvilleBLUE

October 30th, 2018 at 7:00 PM ^

Prior to the season, I was expecting only marginally better offensive play and a top 5 defense. Because of this I figured it would be more of the field position battle variety. Because of that I thought if we had a terrible punter, that would completely destroy our season if that’s the type of offense that we were running.

edit: clarified my position since it was worded weirdly. 

stephenrjking

October 30th, 2018 at 6:51 PM ^

I expected the team to be good and it is. I had hoped that they would be undefeated, but having one loss after ND, Wisconsin, and MSU is not a surprise. 

I hoped that the OL would be better than it was at the beginning of the season; I expected that I might be wrong and boy was I ever. I hoped for constant improvement through the year, but expected them to just be ok and stay that way, and instead they've improved markedly through the season. I certainly did not expect Runyan and JBB to remain the starting tackles after ND, and yet the staff stuck by them and it is paying off in spades.

I expected Shea to be less consistent but to have considerably bigger stats. 

I expected our DL to be better. I expected our safeties to be worse. I guess K Hudson is exactly what I've thought he would be. 

I expected Notre Dame to be worse than they are, but for our entire slate of B1G opponents to be better than they have so far proven to be. I did not expect to be optimistic about the OSU game at this point of the season, and yet here we are. (optimism subject to change; I've been optimistic about PSU too, but now it's game week and I hear things like "great defensive line" and see highlights of McSorely and Hamler making big plays and the terror is creeping back in, as it will for The Game).

I expected the blue end zones to look great, and they do. I expected the rain in the MSU game forecast to be a major problem, and it was; I expected it to make the game a real a tossup, and instead we throttled them. 

I did not expect Michigan and Indiana to be the only two teams in the East that aren't moral embarrassments.

B1G_Fan

October 31st, 2018 at 12:04 AM ^

I must be in the minority lol but, I'd take Rudock or Patterson over Henne. I think people get caught up because Henne was so good his freshman year ( for a freshman) but he never really improved from his freshman year. Statiscally, both Patterson and Rudock are killing Henne in just about every category that matter.

CLion

October 30th, 2018 at 6:55 PM ^

Our team is actually about what I expected. I was worried about the tackles after ND but seems they are as good as we could have hoped.

Where my expectations were really off was the strength of the B10. PSU is about what I thought, but Wisco I thought was a legit top 5, MSU is worse than expected, and OSU eh, still hard to peg except their defense seems legitimately bad.

taistreetsmyhero

October 30th, 2018 at 6:55 PM ^

Well, preseason I had them pegged at 8-4 with losses to ND, MSU, Penn St, and OSU. I suppose it could still end up pretty close to that, but predicting that now would require a heavy dose of pessimism.

The team is definitely better than I expected. That's largely due to the emergence of the best rushing offense we've put out in many years. I almost forgot what it was like to watch Michigan successfully win games against tough opponents by grinding them down on the ground. The passing game is also better than expected, mostly because we made a huge leap in pass protection. I'd have told you to take off the maize glasses if you predicted the blocking to be this great before the season started.

On the flip side, we have also benefited from our schedule being a touch easier than was predicted prior to the season. In fairness, many posters predicted that MSU and PSU were way overrated coming into the season. However, injuries to Wisconsin and MSU have made them less impressive wins than one may have predicted. OSU also has some major flaws that weren't obvious before the season started. Penn State is probably right where many predicted...lots of talent but clear flaws and coaching blunders abound.

Overall, mid-season reality >> expectations, which is always nice. 

Hardware Sushi

October 30th, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^

Up, overall. Based on expectations:

Offensive line: better (excising ND game - thought we were dead after that game)

Shea: more mobile, less gunslinger than expected. Overall performance about right. MOXIE. 

Higdon: Wow, love the play. Wasn’t high on him but turning into a guy to talk about in 10 years.

DPJ: playing well, throw him the ball more, Shea!

Defense: excellent, better than expected, especially D-line depth. 

Gary: clearly injured but, like Peppers, wish we had more time. 

Bush: Damn, amazing LB and leader. Pretty close to locking up all-time-favorite-M-team-in-my-life status. 

Winovich: knew he was a beast, love him taking over for Gary when out. Not a one trick pony. 

UCHE: Damn. Winovich heir apparent?

Metellus: Favorite safety since mid 00s (sorry more fun than Kovacs/still love Kovacs)

Coaching: clearly improved in many facets on offense and coming together. Wouldn’t trade the D staff for anyone, Bama included. 

Website: I post less and more mainstream dweebs but still better than many give credit. Brian’s writing on point this year. Miss Ace. Seth has become a great analyst (in addition to his biz acumen), and the rest of the gang does a great job with the rest. 

outsidethebox

October 30th, 2018 at 7:14 PM ^

My expectations were/are 100% correct. I expected it to be an interesting and entertaining year...it has been all of that. Well, okay, I did not expect the o-line to progress this well. And if I were the opposition I would demand a DNA test on Metellus...is that really the same guy???

outsidethebox

October 30th, 2018 at 7:14 PM ^

My expectations were/are 100% correct. I expected it to be an interesting and entertaining year...it has been all of that. Well, okay, I did not expect the o-line to progress this well. And if I were the opposition I would demand a DNA test on Metellus...is that really the same guy???

butuka21

October 30th, 2018 at 7:15 PM ^

I was expecting 11-1, and even posted that after the Nd loss.  Still expect that.  I expect to win the big championship go to the playoff and not win it all.  

MGoStrength

October 30th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^

So far I have been pleasantly surprised.  Despite quite a setback from the interior line last year and Gary being injured much of the year, the defense has been great.  The safety play seems much improved and the LBs are great.  Shea was what we hoped he'd be so far.  The WRs have incrementally improved.  The RBs are what we expected.  And, the o-line is much better than I expected.  At the beginning I hoped to beat MSU and split with PSU & OSU.  If we beat ND or Wiscy I saw that as icing on the cake.  Well, so far we beat MSU and have some icing.  We have the chance still to not only split with PSU & OSU, but to sweep.  I still think a B1G championship is a long shot because winning in Columbus won't be easy, but it looks more likely than I expected before the season.  Although despite Haskins being way better than I expected, OSU's run game and defense is not as strong as I expected as well, so overall they are more beatable than I would have thought.  And, although PSU won't be an easy win I think a loss would be a disappointment now.

SMart WolveFan

October 30th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^

My expectation was that this team, and we fans, were going to enjoy this year a heck of a lot more than last year. Check.

My hope was that the leadership would create a great team attitude that would especially help the offensive line. Check.

My belief was that the team would have the best chance for a special season if they lost to Notre Dame in game 1. Check.

And I fully believed that the upset special would be in full effect in Columbus on Nov 24th, and now that's the only thing that really scares me.

 

LDNfan

October 30th, 2018 at 7:36 PM ^

I tend toward optimism entering every season so the record is pretty close to what I expected but the way the team has gone about getting there has been a pleasant surprise. 

The strength and conditioning has been a major upgrade with UM consistently being the stronger team down the stretch even against roid rage stormtrooper U. 

The Oline has obviously exceeded expectations but so has the depth of the Dline (Kemp and Paye), the play of Ben Mason , the much maligned in 2017 safeties and unheralded guys like Uche and Gil.  That's a lot of exceeding expectations....so well done coaches and players. 

Re. K. Hudson this is the game where he needs to really make his mark. Intelligent and violent play from the Viper is critical to counter McSorley. 

Re. Gentry...I'm not so certain about his blocking improvements. After watching him get crumbled a couple of times in the MSU game I think he still has a ways to go...but maybe (hopefully) that was an anomaly. 

Slamdo

October 30th, 2018 at 7:53 PM ^

Great post.

My expectations preseason were 8-4 if I correct for homerism and were to place money.  After ND loss:  7-5.  Was already looking forward to 2019.

O-line was a major concern going in, with no preseason reports to suggest otherwise.  ND first half seemed to confirm all fears.  Shea was also a concern after ND, given all the publicity surrounding his recruitment and his potential, which wasn't obvious after game one.  Little did I know at the time that ND was legit, and this would be our worst game against our toughest opponent to date.

Since the ND game, our defense has outperformed my high expectations, our kicking game has outperformed my reasonable expectations, and our O-line has far exceeded my expectations.  Running game, receiver corp and QB have all been seriously legit and met what were in hindsight high expectations.  There have been games where play calling has been frustrating.  Looking back makes this look better, as we have won games, where in the past, similar play calling has led to bitter defeats.  Seems like we have more juice left going into fourth quarter, and we have been able to wear teams down with a power game mentality. 

Kinnel and Metallus have been fantastic, where last year they were "ok".  DB's have been clutch.  D line has been extremely fun to watch and LB play has been exceptional.  On offense, I expected Hudson and Mayfield to replace the starters by now, but Runyon, Onwenu, and JBB have excelled.  Pass protection by the line and the backs has also improved exponentially, although still needs work.  Credit the coaches.

Under no circumstance after the ND game did I think we would be in the conference champ discussion or playoff contention in November.  Give credit to this exceptional group of players for rising to the occasion and overcoming adversity.  The season is a long way from being over and there is still a lot of football to be played, but it has been a fun season to watch and it has gotten better each week.  A good place to be.

drjaws

October 30th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^

Expectations:  we’ll always be a decent team (8-5 or better) under Harbaugh.  I think my preseason prediction was 9-3

Reality:  better than my expectations perhaps

greatlakestate

October 30th, 2018 at 8:12 PM ^

I was very excited over the summer and really thought maybe THIS team would finally put it all together.  After the ND game, I walked around in a funk for 24 hours mumbling, "We're not Michigan anymore, we're just Indiana." (  So the way the team has rallied and come chugging back is heartening.  I feel like we have turned a corner in the Harbaugh era.  Even if we don't achieve all our goal this year, we will.  I feel very confident of it.