Mich/State Predictions

Submitted by goblue85 on March 3rd, 2013 at 9:46 AM

Michigan comes back home for a very big game today against state at 4pm CBS.   Our backs are against the wall, and the beatdown at East Lansing should have our guys motivated for this one today.   In February, we were missing our swagger from the beginning of the year when we went on 20-1 start.   The frosh have been playing better at home.   Let's keep winning at home and protect it.    I have the confidence will get it done today.

 

Michigan 69

State 64

Comments

LSAClassOf2000

March 3rd, 2013 at 9:57 AM ^

Interestingly, Massey is going with a 78% win probability for Michigan and a 68-64-ish performance for an esitimate. Here is a quick comparison using conference play only:

 

COMPARISON STATS
METRIC Michigan Michigan St.
Points Per Game 63.5 68.2
Points Per Poss. 1.147 1.071
Floor % 56.49% 53.54%
Eff. FG% 54.56% 51.13%
Opp. Eff. FG% 48.30% 42.60%
Off. Rebound% 31.58% 32.56%
Rebond Margin -3.50 7.40
Block% 4.76% 6.04%
Turnover% 15.15% 18.19%
Assist / Turnover 1.2 1.1

If we can get offensive rebounds and keep control of the ball, I could see something like what Massey went with, but it will not be easy to do without some rather gritty defense down the stretch. Not much of a prediction, but I could see this game as being a few possessions in either direction. It should be a close one. The optimist in me, however, goes 70-67 Michigan. 

MaizeMN

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:53 AM ^

Tommy: Let’s think about this for a sec, Ted. Why would somebody put a guarantee on a box? Hmmm, very interesting.

Ted Nelson, Customer: Go on, I’m listening.
Tommy: Here’s the way I see it, Ted. Guy puts a fancy guarantee on a box ’cause he wants you to feel all warm and toasty inside.

Ted Nelson, Customer: Yeah, makes a man feel good.

Tommy: ‘Course it does. Why shouldn’t it? Ya figure you put that little box under your pillow at night, the Guarantee Fairy might come by and leave a quarter, am I right, Ted?
[chuckles until he sees that Ted is not laughing]

Ted Nelson, Customer: [impatiently] What’s your point?

Tommy: The point is, how do you know the fairy isn’t a crazy glue sniffer? “Building model airplanes” says the little fairy; well, we’re not buying it. He sneaks into your house once, that’s all it takes. The next thing you know, there’s money missing off the dresser, and your daughter’s knocked up. I seen it a hundred times.

Ted Nelson, Customer: But why do they put a guarantee on the box?

Tommy: Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of shi*. That’s all it is, isn’t it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer’s sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me. 

 

phork

you

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yes

.

ghost

March 3rd, 2013 at 2:22 PM ^

Him and Palm have a habit of making some suspicious last second changes to their brackets.  Yahoosports' big board to me looks pretty accurate and its also easy to read.  Lunardi yesterday had the Vols moving into the bracket after an awful loss to Georgia.  That is not in any way logical.  He has Alabama as the first team out.  No way that is correct.  The committee over the years has made it clear with the Pac12 that major conferences teams with nice records, but no good wins and alot of bad losses will not get the benefit of the doubt.

Bluecamo

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

Nothing in the past month to suggest that we will play good basketball against a good physical defense. I hope we have a little pride and stand up for ourselves, but I dont see how that will happen all of a sudden. State wins by 10, disgust

BlockM

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

Hoping we can pull one off, but the way we've been playing lately doesn't bode well. I just don't see us holding up against their big men and against their tight defense. If we can limit turnovers and hit some outside shots, we'll have a good chance, but it'll be tight. If we don't, we could be in for a long afternoon.

SirJack II

March 3rd, 2013 at 1:08 PM ^

That's basically exactly what I was going to put: 

MSU 80

Mich 68

It pains me to think so, of course. But hey, we still have a great university right? And spring's coming up.

redwhiteandmaize

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:26 AM ^

Im not looking forward to this game as much as I would of before Penn State.It could be tough at home to win.You can never go against the home team so Ill say 70-65.

MaizeMN

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:28 AM ^

It's barely 9 in the a.m. in MN and the interwebs are causing my PC to heave to and fro like the TV in Poltergeist. Dunno if we will win or lose, but let the cliches fly.

It's a gut check game.

This is where the rubber meets the road (or court)

and my all-time favorite:

"If at first you don't succeed, keep on sucking 'til you do suck seed." (Sylvester T. Cat)

Prediction: Kittens 62 Snowlakes 59

 

dc22

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^

I think it will be a close game till the end with either team having a chance to win. I am picking 67-62 win for Michigan because of the home court.

That being said, I think that it is very unlikely that we lose by double digits at Crisler as some have suggested. But, if any of you think that might be the case you could win a lot of money to soften the gut-punch of a Michigan loss (most places have us as a 4 point favorite).

TheVictors

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:45 AM ^

From the fanbase ...Sparty in our heads? Hopefully not in the heads of our young, soft team of 3-point shooter. And MaizeRage is on Spring Break???

NelzQ

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:49 AM ^

This time when Nix tells Trey Burke, "you're soft", Burke retorts, "that's not what your girl said".  

Michigan gives 100% for 40 minutes and discovers the antidote to soft play. Michigan 78, State 70.

Willy Wonka

March 3rd, 2013 at 11:01 AM ^

78-71. Unless Michigan throws in some new wrinkles and plays an effective zone. McGary has to be the X Factor. I hope he plays more than 8 minutes like he did in Happy Valley.

mGrowOld

March 3rd, 2013 at 11:05 AM ^

I predict there isnt a person alive who has a clue what we're going to see in five hours.  This team has played fantastic at home (but the students are on home break).  Has recently enjoyed success against MSU (but got curb-stomped by them 10 days ago).  Was rated 4th in the country then managed to blow a 15 point second half lead to a winless team in the B1G.

I doublt even Coach Beilein knows what's coming next.  If you told me we were going to win by 20 I wouldnt be surprised (the team is that good when it wants to be).  If you told me we lost by 20 I wouldn't be surprised (the team can play that soft).

I have no fucking idea.  Truly none.

Michigan       _______

Michigan State______

EDIT: Did Fearless Leader post a prediction?  If so I missed it.