Mich/Penn St predictions

Submitted by goblue85 on February 17th, 2013 at 9:41 AM

Noon BTN

Finally back at home on throwback day.  A lot of former players will be in the house today.   Burke and THJ will lead us to the win this afternoon.  I will predict that GR3 will throw down a nice slam today.  J Morgan will play more today and really need him healthy for the bottom of the stretch.

 

Michigan 78

Penn St 57

Comments

Don

February 17th, 2013 at 9:51 AM ^

Michigan. We'll be up by over 20 in the first half, but frequent substitutions and a lack of urgency will whittle the margin down a bit in the second half.

Michigan Arrogance

February 17th, 2013 at 9:56 AM ^

M wins by less than 15, I read the thread and get pissed off at the unacceptable crowd.

 

We've played the 3rd hardest schedule and have the 3rd youngest team in the country. We just have to move on." - John Beilein

LSAClassOf2000

February 17th, 2013 at 9:58 AM ^

Massy is going with a 99% win probability for Michigan and a predicted margin of thirty points, and the line for this game has typically sat near 20 points at most sites, I believe. This would be a statistical way of saying "pain", I would assume. 

Here is a summary comparison with just in-conference games factored in:

 

Offensive Stat Comparison
 
Penn St. Michigan
Points/Game 56.2 71.7
Avg Score Margin -12.5 7.9
Assists/Game 9.3   14.8
Total Rebounds/Gm 33.6 34.6
Effective FG % 39.8% 54.2%
Off Rebound % 29.1%  31.9%
Defensive Stat Comparison
 
Penn St. Michigan
Opp Points/Game 67.3   61.0
Opp Effective FG % 49.1% 49.5%
Off Rebounds/Gm 10.9 10.4
Def Rebounds/Gm 22.7 24.2
Blocks/Game 3.6 2.9
Steals/Game 4.9 6.2

I don't foresee too much difficulty here, given the predictive stats myself. I would say that we stand a good chance of winning comfortably against Penn State in our own house. I'll go with Michigan in a 76-56-ish performance. 

ckersh74

February 17th, 2013 at 10:17 AM ^

74-52. Close early, then Michigan puts the hammer down at about the 10-minute mark of the 1st half. Next thing you know, we're up 15 late in the first half, and the drama is done for the afternoon. 

85Lee

February 17th, 2013 at 10:19 AM ^

Mcgary will have a big day he has been improving against great competition. He will use what he's learned the past couple weeks and have a break out game against poor competition.

TIMMMAAY

February 17th, 2013 at 11:25 AM ^

Needs at least one comma...

*I just can't help myself sometimes. Grammar and punctuation are what make our language readable. Without them it's just a jumble of words. Our schools are failing us on the most basic level here. As Brian likes to say; "Cumong man". 

Nick

February 17th, 2013 at 11:32 AM ^

Go to Kenpom and read some of the names of the schools ranked similarly to Penn State.

Elon, Rider, High Point, Bryant, Lafayette, UC Davis, Wagner, Gardner Webb.

You're entitled to your opinion, but do you actually think Michigan is going to only beat some of those schools by 5 at home?  Because Penn State is just about as bad as they are.

madmaxweb

February 17th, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^

All I will say is upsets, no mater how big, have happened. Obviously I hope I'm completely wrong and UM blows then out but I just think a young tired team will come in dogging it trying too not put much energy into this game because of how bad State is. You can say "oh Belien won't allow it". But they are young, and young people do what young people want to do.

Perkis-Size Me

February 17th, 2013 at 10:54 AM ^

I think it will be close for the first 10 minutes, but the floodgates will burst open after that. They've had 5 days off, they're at home, and its against a school that's winless in B1G competition. If they win by any less than 20, today is a disappointment. No excuses today. But, I don't think that will happen.

91-60 UM

Durham Blue

February 17th, 2013 at 11:21 AM ^

thinking Kenpom is at -25 and it's a gimme bet.  Also took over 131.  But then I read some of these comments and I hedged it with a parlay of PSU +21.5 and the under.  My gut feeling is Michigan barely covers the 22 point spread with a garbage time field goal with less than a minute to go.  Who the hell knows about the O/U?

hfhmilkman

February 17th, 2013 at 11:26 AM ^

Option A.  UM blows out PSU early and cruises in the 2nd half.  UM 80, PSU 55.

Option B. UM comes out flat.  PSU hangs around.  UM gets down to business in the 2nd half and pulls away.  UM 80, PSU 55.

Option C. Treat Options A and B as discrete quantum states and Option C is a superposition of A and B with the outcome of UM 80 PSU 55.

Any other deviation from a UM blowout would be a violation of the laws of physics and I would have to dump the standard model to explain such a violation.   But kids seem to not want to follow rules which is what makes college sports so fun.  Let us hope for at least one day that the magic that is college sports does not happen and reality stays the course for one day.

JHendo

February 17th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^

This team is incredibly consistent in how inconsistent they play. So, that being said, we get slightly concerned in the first 10 minutes of the 1st half as we volley the lead back and forth with PSU for a while. We eventually wake up and end the 1st half up by 11. We continue that dominance in the 2nd half until we're up by 26 with 7 mins left. By that time, we cool down and start emptying the bench and end the game with a 74-59 victory.