Michigan/OSU preview and computer model podcast by the SECFans group

Submitted by The Man Down T… on October 23rd, 2018 at 11:06 AM

I've posted this podcast before when they've talked Michigan.  They do a really good objective job.  They have a ton of stat based praise on Michigan's defense and what their computer model says (spoiler model says 37-17 UM).  It's an hour long but a good listen.  Worth the time.

 

fun quote from the podcast:  "I truly believe right now, as of this date, Michigan is the class of the Big Ten. I think by a margin and I'll be curious to see if that changes...".

 

Comments

Sideline

October 23rd, 2018 at 5:50 PM ^

Normally, I'd agree with you. I just watched Don Brown make Lewerke look like a first year starter, playing his first ever game at home in a Rivalry. 0/12 on 3rd downs? What were his stats passing? weren't they like 7/23 for 43 yards or something pedestrian? I like our chances going 3-0 in the next set of games... but I want to focus on PSU before even thinking about any of the other following games. 

GoBlueSean

October 23rd, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^

Hail yes! If we can win in Columbus my multiple scores... I will not have a voice and I think I will have sold my first born child to whomever can make this happen...

jimmyjoeharbaugh

October 23rd, 2018 at 12:06 PM ^

Michigan's game-to-game performance over the past few years has been too variable for me to get too excited about a computer model. On average, week 8 Michigan might beat Week 8 OSU by 20 if we play them a hundred times, but Michigan's just not consistent enough, the standard deviation is probably 35

TheDirtyD

October 23rd, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^

Michigan's Defense is playing very well, we got solomon back whos game should only get more rust knocked off and Gary hopefully can come back. We've got some ballers on our D-Line.

Bo Glue

October 23rd, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^

It's crazy to think, but as good as this line is, it might be one of the worst we've had in the last 10 years, barring games where injury took us to the third string. Not a knock against these guys at all. We've just been spoiled by truly elite play from that position group.

UMfan21

October 23rd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^

I will say I watched their video before the Wisconsin game and laughed at their prediction.  Then we demolished Wisky and I went back and looked....their prediction was actually very close.  Closer than most predicted.

secfans

October 23rd, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^

Thanks for the post guys. We've actually done a good bit of UM content this year but can't start threads here so we have to rely on the kindness of others. 

Just to follow up on a few things from the video and discussions here:

- The computer model looks at how a team does relative to opponent averages, so it neutralizes strength of schedule a good bit. UM gets to 37 because of some pretty eye opening defensive statistics from OSU, namely the fact that OSU is allowing 109% of opponent averages passing and 99% of opponent averages rushing. This means that on a neutral field, UM should actually do /better/ than average offensively against the OSU defense.

- Those numbers are particularly troubling when you consider that any given schedule is full of cupcakes, so a good team should be able to reduce those averages against inferior competition. Statistically speaking, UM will have faced at least 7, if not 8 defenses better than Ohio St's

- Our model predicted UM 40 Wisky 13 (score was 38-13)

- Last year our model predicted Ohio St 31 Michigan 17 (score was 31-20)

- We had an in-depth discussion on the B10 winner's odds of making the CFP, and discussed the ND issue, which is a big wrench in the plans right now

- We touched on why UCF taking a CFP slot is a joke

- We also discussed why the 9 game conference schedule is not good for college football

UM and OSU fans have been great on our channel this year, and we pride ourselves in being really unbiased as it relates to B10 football. We're "SEC Fans" but we love all of CFB.


 

secfans

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^

Honestly, nobody's beating Bama this year. I've been watching college football for 30 years and I've never seen a team like them. And I've not said that about a single Bama team during Saban's run.

Barring a Tua injury and some more key defensive injuries (LB is particularly thin), I doubt anyone comes within 3 TDs. 

I say this at the risk of knowing I'm in enemy territory. But we're brutally honest all the time. And even Bama fans don't like us on our channel because we still pick on them a bit.

secfans

October 23rd, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^

It's a fair point, but actually, Alabama's schedule to this point is tougher than Ohio St's. (Their best win is Penn St, who is ranked behind Texas A&M).

  • Clemson's best win is also Alabama's (#16 Texas A&M). Clemson beat them by 2. Alabama was up 45-16 in the third and pulled their starters
  • LSU's best win was clearly UGA, better than Alabama's best. But this will be settled Nov 3
  • Michigan's best win was Wisconsin (currently #20). Alabama would prison sex Wisconsin
  • Florida's best win was LSU, things are getting a bit circular

The only top teams who have better wins than Alabama right now are LSU, Texas, Notre Dame, and Florida.

Alabama also skull dragged Missouri who two weeks prior beat Purdue on the road. 

They also beat Ole Miss 62-7. The same Ole Miss who drilled Texas Tech by 20.

I think the assumption is that because Alabama is beating these teams /so/ bad, that those teams must not be good. But Occam's Razor says opposite. 

And to be fair, I'm not saying teams like Ole Miss or Missouri are great teams. But have shown they are capable of beating teams who themselves also have big wins against P5 competition.

maizenbluenc

October 23rd, 2018 at 6:53 PM ^

I watched Bama play Mizzou in person. They couldn't get 2 yards several times when they needed it - very un-Bama-like. The pass rush seemed very un-Bama-like in the first half too. Depends on Tua's knee - when Tua went out, the run game picked up because of a real option threat, but the passing game got pretty shaky. If LSU or Auburn get to him ...

Yes, Bama is very impressive - especially with Tua in - but there are a few exhaust ports in that death star.