Michigan Vs. MSU quick rankings/stats comparison

Submitted by GATO on October 3rd, 2010 at 2:00 PM
  Michigan   Michigan St.
  National Rank Yds/Pts Per Game   National Rank Yds/Pts Per Game
Rushing Offense   3 324.4 Rushing Defense  20 101.2
Passing Offense  38 240.6 Pass Defense  78 227.4
Total Offense  2 565 Total Defense  41 328.6
Scoring Offense  9 41.4 Scoring Defense  36 18.6
Rushing Defense  37 125.8 Rushing Offense   20 220.2
Pass Efficiency Defense  79 129.47 Passing Efficiency  12 166.09
Total Defense  102 433.6 Total Offense  23 460.6
Scoring Defense  73 25.4 Scoring Offense  24 36.2
Net Punting  88 34 Net Punting  35 38.05
Kickoff Returns  104 18.72 Kickoff Returns  66 21.31
Turnover Margin  T-15  0.8 Turnover Margin  T-43  0.4
Pass Defense  120 307.8 Passing Offense  39 240.4
Passing Efficiency  4 181.29 Pass Efficiency Defense  29 110.68
Sacks  88 1.4 Sacks Allowed  73 2.2
Tackles For Loss  T-61  6 Tackles For Loss  103 4.2
Sacks Allowed  1 0.2 Sacks  T-107  1
Red Zone Efficiency 6 6.48 Red Zone Defense 54 4.93
Red Zone Defense 71 5.26 Red Zone Efficiency 49 5.35

Let me start by saying all the stats above can be found here:

http://www.ncaa.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/ncaa-m-footbl-stats-index.html

I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert on the metrics and their relationship to the outcome of this game but I will make a few quick observations and let everyone else draw whatever conclusions they choose.

1.  Looks to be the classic coin flip game, it's basically strength against strength and weakness against weakness.

2.  The second number in the red zone effeciency categories is simply the total number of points scored devided by the number of opportunities.  The national ranking however is based on a flat conversion ratio. These numbers jumped out at me more than any others.

3.  I'm sure there are all sorts of metrics that I could have added/included/weighted, I didn't, this is meant to be quick and dirty.

4.  According to the numbers, and this game looks to be about execution. 

 

In my opinion if we win the turnover battle, finish with TD's in the red zone and can tie on hidden yardage (penalty yardage + return yardage) we should win this game. 

 

P.S. A warning to those pining for old school big ten football this should be another barn burner.  Then again, as with the rest of this post, I'm not saying anything most people didn't already know.

Comments

orillia

October 3rd, 2010 at 2:11 PM ^

I like our chances to win as long as Roundtree doesn't get tackled inside the five.....we can't seem to punch it in when that happens.  On a serious note- if our run defense continues to improve then we have a chance to keep Sparty in the 20's point wise.  We are going to have to score 30 + points to win a nail-biter.

switch26

October 3rd, 2010 at 2:25 PM ^

The only difference in IU's game and fumbling at the goal line was the fact that we didn't have Shaw to jump over the pile or just punch it in for us.

 

If he was healthy yesterday, i doubt we get stopped on several of those drives where we had just forced IU to punt it back to us..

Indiana Blue

October 3rd, 2010 at 3:10 PM ^

Please RR take an honest assessment of ever using the I formation with Denard as QB.  No sense ... NONE.  The I formation entirely changes what the offense does ... including putting Denard under center for the snap.

Everyone saw the real approach to take when everything is on the line at the end of the game ..  21 seonds left, ball at the 4 ... snap it to Denard in the spread and let him create ! 

Go Blue !

bronxblue

October 3rd, 2010 at 2:21 PM ^

MSU will be a tough game, but let's remember that MSU has not played a road game yet this season  (UM has already won twice in hostile crowds), and may have beaten a somewhat-overrated Wiscy team.  UM has not been a world-beater either, but the run defense has been solid against conventional attacks, and that MSU defense is not going to really slow down Denard and Co. unless he is injured.  Should be a close game, but I expect UM to pull it out.

switch26

October 3rd, 2010 at 2:28 PM ^

I am def calling out Wisconsin's suspect Offense... They barely beat an ASU team at home, who has now lost 3 games already..  I know one loss was to Oregon, but they were beating them at home, and they turned it over 6 fuckin times in that game.. so they lost it for themselves..

 

The difference in the game was Wisconsin's dogshit special teams.. I haven't seen a big ten team give up that many punt or kickoff returns in years in just their first 5 games

Zone Left

October 3rd, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^

Arguing that ASU coughed one up against Oregon doesn't help your case.

Nevertheless, Wisconsin always seems to struggle against decent competition and was obviously overrated.  If Michigan ends up positive in turnover margin, they beat Sparty.

Zone Left

October 3rd, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^

Playing at home will really help Michigan.  Sparty won't be able to jump the silent snap and homefield is always a nice advantage in college.

Here's another reason to beat Sparty.  After Michigan, the back half of their schedule is Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, and Penn State.  Barring a classic post-Michigan collapse, there's maybe two losses out of those games, and a decent chance to win them all.  I don't know if I can live in a world with a 12-0 MSU team--although watching them get crucified in a BCS game would be sort of fun.

bronxblue

October 3rd, 2010 at 4:02 PM ^

There is no way MSU goes 12-0 this season, even if you simulated the season a million times in NCAA 2011 and had them only play Austin Peay.  They'll Sparty away at least one of those games, maybe 2.  I do think their season shaked out amazingly well for them from a scheduling standpoint, though: they only have 4 away games this year, with one being at UM (which will have a fair MSU contingent no matter how packed it is with UM faithful).  Next year they have to go to OSU, Nebraska, ND, etc., so if they are looking for a year to get 10 wins and a decent bowl appearance, it is now. 

RockinLoud

October 3rd, 2010 at 10:48 PM ^

the run defense has been solid against conventional attacks

Did you see the UMass game?  They run a very similar offense to MSU and we didn't stop their conventional ground attack very well.  I truly hope our D has a fire lit under them this week to play lights out.  I'd love nothing more than to roll MSU this weekend... well, maybe I'd like to roll OSU more, but still, I want to see us get this monkey off our back and put little brother in their place.

RockinLoud

October 3rd, 2010 at 10:49 PM ^

the run defense has been solid against conventional attacks

Did you see the UMass game?  They run a very similar offense to MSU and we didn't stop their conventional ground attack very well.  I truly hope our D has a fire lit under them this week to play lights out.  I'd love nothing more than to roll MSU this weekend... well, maybe I'd like to roll OSU more, but still, I want to see us get this monkey off our back and put little brother in their place.

markusr2007

October 3rd, 2010 at 4:28 PM ^

I think the two stats to really watch re: MSU game will be:

1. MSU penalties.  Spartans lead the Big Ten with 41 penalities for -362 yards.  This problem is penalties tendency is only exacerbated when they play Michigan.

2. MSU Rushing Yards Allowed vs. UM

Dantonio's stategy against Michigan could not be more clear: MSU allowed Michigan only 100 yards (3.3 ypc in 2007),  84 yards rushing in 2008 (2.7 ypc) and only 28 yards last year (1 ypc).

It's a cliche, but UM has to both pass and run the ball well vs. MSU in order to win this game.

MSU is allowing only 100 ypg thus far (3rd in league behind Iowa and OSU).

 

jmblue

October 3rd, 2010 at 4:35 PM ^

I'm not sure what to make of their rush defense.  Statistically, they look good, but Wisconsin is the only run-oriented team they've faced and they had some trouble against them.  (ND had a good YPC average against them, but didn't commit to the run for whatever reason.)  OTOH, they did well against the pass yesterday, which I was not expecting. 

Logan88

October 3rd, 2010 at 7:43 PM ^

It remains to be seen if MSU's run defense (which has played well thus far) can stop a mobile QB. A lot of teams (past UM teams included, naturally) can perform well against traditional "line-up-and-smash-them-in-the-mouth" running games and fail miserably to stop a spread running attack with a fast QB.

Note, I am not saying that MSU cannot stop UM's running game. I am merely pointing out that UM's running game is a whole different animal than any MSU has faced this season.

Personally, I think this game is a total coin-flip game (felt that way since the beginning of the season) and UM will need to be at least solid in special teams as well as be at least even in TO margin to have a chance to win.

Magnus

October 3rd, 2010 at 7:55 PM ^

In those categories listed above...

Michigan averages out to be #50.

MSU averages out to be #48.

I guess it will be a close game with MSU edging out U-M, unfortunately.