Michigan vs. MSU betting lines

Submitted by HartAttack20 on October 1st, 2009 at 9:46 PM

Oct. 3 Michigan
9 a.m. at Michigan St
Favorite MICH MICH MICH
Point spread -3½ -3½ -3½
Total 56o/u 56o/u 56o/u
Total money line -110 -110 -110

This is straight off of Vegas.com.
I hope this wasn't posted yet, but a quick search and scroll through a couple pages showed nothing.
I figured this was as good of a time as any to figure out the betting system and get a post out there to get some thoughts on the game. Now the first two lines I understand. Michigan is favored by 3.5 points. I'm guessing the next line is 56 over/under, which I would assume means the total points expected to be scored in the game. The final line I don't understand so if somebody wants to explain that I would be totally caught up.

At this point it's obvious that we should be the favorite in this one. May seem a little low to me, but I think this will be a close game, so i'm not surprised. Thoughts?
Link:
http://www2.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline_ncaaf.html

Comments

HeismanPose

October 1st, 2009 at 10:42 PM ^

That is correct. A $110 bet wins $100, but loses $110. Here is a link to yahoo's college football odds page:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

Notice that all O/U and pointspread bets are -110. That is how casinos and bookies make their money. If you bet $50 and lose, you lose $50. If you bet $50 and win, you win $45.45 ($50*10/11). Casinos want even money on both sides so they are guaranteed that 1/11 profit on the winning bets. If they have even money on each side of the bet, it doesn't matter what happens in the game.

Michigan +3.5 means Michigan is the underdog. Home teams usually get a 2-3 point advantage, so bettors think the teams are basically even. That is a little surprising, actually (we ARE 4-0). If Michigan beats Indiana convincingly last week, they are probably a 3-4 point favorite. People are not high on our defense right now.

MGoBlog Fan

October 1st, 2009 at 11:00 PM ^

if you win, you get your original bet back plus the winnings. So in your example above, if you bet $50 and lose, you are out your $50. But if you bet $50 and win, you get your $50 back plus $45.45 = $95.45.

HeismanPose

October 1st, 2009 at 11:11 PM ^

If you're in Vegas at a sportsbook, you will pay $50 up front. If you lose, your $50 is gone. If you win, you get the $50 back + your winnings, so $94.45 altogether. You usually don't pay bookies up front, though, so they will probably just add the $45.45 to your total. I'm talking monopoly money, of course. :)

Section 1

October 1st, 2009 at 11:10 PM ^

Sort of like their listing PSU as "PENN."

Yes, right now MSU is a 3-3.5 point favorite.

And yes, I have to believe that Vegas is counting on a compromised Tate Forcier, and is either not accounting for, or is not believing, Rich Rod's statement about what Forcier can do.

MGoBlog Fan

October 1st, 2009 at 10:07 PM ^

The line opened at MSU +1 and has moved steadily to MSU -3.5.

Go to oddsshark.com to compare lines from actual places that accept bets. Vegas.com is a travel website.

Tater

October 1st, 2009 at 10:21 PM ^

It's obvious that someone is betting on MSU and moving the odds along. Are there that many more Spartans betting on the game than Wolverines, or are the "objective" bettors drinking MSU kool-aid? Or is the "Michigan is winning with smoke and mirrors" storyline influencing bettors?

Whatever, I hope those betting on Sparty take a bath on Saturday.

harmon98

October 1st, 2009 at 10:26 PM ^

tate's shoulder is moving those lines. this comment moved it 1.5 points:
"I fully expect (Forcier) to be ready to go and do everything," Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said before practice Wednesday.

noshesnot

October 1st, 2009 at 10:49 PM ^

It was MSU -2.5 this morning, MSU -3.0 before the injury report, and MSU -3.5 after the injury report. I think the smart oddsmakers are agreeing that:
1. It's odd Tate isn't even listed as "probable".
2. Floyd is starting in place of Cissoko
3. MSU is 1-3 and NEEDS this win more than Michigan NEEDS this win.

#3 is a little weak, but 1 and 2 are strong.

noshesnot

October 1st, 2009 at 11:00 PM ^

it's not that weird. Ya, it's State, but they've lost two games that they could easily have won, and we've won two games that we could easily have lost. We are traveling away from home with a metric ass ton of young folks who will be playing on the road for the first time this season/their college careers. State is State, and now their season rests on this game, even more than it normally does.

Also, it's going to be rainy - not good for a team with fumbling issues.

ScoobyBlue

October 2nd, 2009 at 8:33 AM ^

I wouldn't be surprised if the betting volume is lower for this game. There are so many variables heading into this game. First road game for the freshman QBs, UM's defense vs a power running team, will a State QB show up, can State handle the spread? I would think there are several other games that would be easier to pick.