Michigan vs. Iowa, predictions?

Submitted by victors2000 on November 4th, 2011 at 12:49 PM

Why hasn't this been posted yet?? I don't want to comment on dog groomers or Nickleback.

So anyways, the weather is supposed to be good -well, for November anyways- and I think Denard will be ready to excise the ghost of his previous trip to Iowa City. Omg, that seems like 10 years ago for some odd reason, I wonder if it's in the back of his mind.

Without going into details, I think the team continues to improve as it has on a game to game basis, and I think we take yet another step to being the Michigan of yore...

Michigan 30, Iowa 24

Comments

stopthewnba

November 4th, 2011 at 1:22 PM ^

UM 34, Iowa 20.  

 

Saragin has UM as about a 14 point win, home field adjusted

Even prior to Iowa's loss last week, Saragin had Michigan as a 6 point win

 

Iowa has been a much stronger team at home, but they do have one of the worst pass defenses in the Big 10, and as a post on MGoBlog said ... what's their best win?   At Pitt? 

 

I think Denard is relatively effective, limits mistakes, and our defense holds Iowa's running game under 175 yds.

WolvinLA2

November 4th, 2011 at 12:55 PM ^

Is Iowa better than Purdue? Purdue played PSU closer (at least as close) and Iowa has losses to ISU and Minnesota. This one's on the road so it's a little different, but I think we win by two TDs minimum, probably closer to three.

funkywolve

November 4th, 2011 at 1:18 PM ^

is ND better than UM?  ND handled MSU but UM lost to MSU so I guess UM should have lost to ND.

Kansas St beat Texas Tech by 7, and Oklahoma beat Kansas St by 41 so Oklahoma should beat Texas Tech, right?  Oklahoma lost to Texas Tech.

Wake Forst beat Duke by 1.  Florida St beat Duke by 25 should Florida St should beat Wake.  Florida St lost to Walke Forest.

Oklahoma beat Kansas by 30.  Texas beat Kansas by 43 so OU vs Texas should be fairly competitive.  Oklahoma beat Texas by 38.

 

WolvinLA2

November 4th, 2011 at 1:40 PM ^

I'm not sure what your point is. The better team doesn't win every time, but most of the time they do. I wasn't asking who would win one game between Purdue and Iowa, I was comparing the resumes of those two in thinking how we would fare against him.

On any given Saturday, most games could go either way, but most of the time there is an expected outcome. If we say that Iowa is comparable to Purdue, and that we're much better than Purdue, it's a decent way to predict us as a winner on Saturday. Don't tell me Iowa will beat Michigan just because Texas Tech beat Oklahoma.

Wolverine In Iowa

November 4th, 2011 at 12:56 PM ^

Just looked at the forecast, and we're looking at wind here in Iowa City.  I'm thinking we keep the ball on the ground (16 pass attempts max), wear down the Hawks and come away with a 28-17 win.

/see you in section 136 (endzone - Michigan side of field)

Go Blue!!

jtmc33

November 4th, 2011 at 12:57 PM ^

Like the last two years, I predict a lot of stress for everyone watching (UM and Iowa fans); however, unlike the last two years, I predict elation at the end of regulation for UM fans.

Floyd interception with under 2 minutes left as Martin and Roh chase VanderHawkeye out of the pocket.

31-26

MMB 82

November 4th, 2011 at 1:27 PM ^

Yes, definitely Mitch McGary.

Right now, I feel like that scene in Being John Malkovich where he goes thru his own tunnel and ends up in a restuarant (Malkovich....Malkovich? Malkovich!); except it is all going "Mitch McGary"

joeyb

November 4th, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^

I'll make roughly the same prediction I made for MSU. I think it will be within 1 TD at some point in the 4th quarter and then the winning team will score again to put the game away. The difference is that I didn't know who would be the winning team, however, this time I am predicting it will be Michigan.

31-17

snowcrash

November 4th, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^

Iowa is at about the same level as San Diego State, Northwestern, and Purdue. Our offense has shown that it can shred bad defenses. Iowa's offense can do some damage, but they will probably need to be at least +2 on turnovers to hang with us.

Wolverine In Iowa

November 4th, 2011 at 1:12 PM ^

Losing to Minnesota was a disaster, and it is no reflection of the "real" 2011 Hawkeyes.  McNutt is a very dangerous receiver, and now with McCall back (broke ankle in first game of season), Coker will have an able back-up to spell him.  My opinion is that Iowa's defense is not as good as it has been the past 4 or so years, but Vandenberg can kill you.  It's all on our d-line to play great tomorrow, and we need to win the turnover and special teams battles.

msoccer10

November 4th, 2011 at 1:11 PM ^

road Iowa<<<<<<home Iowa

and road UM<<home UM

Still, I think Michigan should win this one. If you look at how many points they have given up, its hard to see their defense stopping us unless we commit a bunch of turnovers.

 

BrownJuggernaut

November 4th, 2011 at 1:14 PM ^

They gained a gazilion yards (446) against them and their running back is the second leading rusher in the country and their top wide receiver is the second leader receiver in the country. If they can finish in the red zone, this team can put up points. Not saying they will, but you can see why people give them credit.

joeyb

November 4th, 2011 at 1:32 PM ^

The shutout of Minnesota is a relation between Michigan's defense and Minnesota's offense. The only valid comparison to be made based on that would be Iowa's defense to Michigan's defense. What you really need to do is to compare Iowa's offense to Michigan's defense, which is not possible by going through a set of games unless that set of games is odd (direct comparison or Michigan beat Minnesota, who beat Iowa, who beat Northwestern).

Now, to answer your question more directly, Iowa's 3 losses have come on the road and they've scored 24, 21, and 3 points in regulation in those games. At home, Iowa is 5-0 and has scored 45, 45, 41, 34, and 31 points. Looking into those numbers, they've only scored fewer than 21 points once. The 3 points came against PSU, who has the best defense in the conference. Unless you think that Michigan's defense is comparable to PSU's, Iowa is probably going to score more than 10 points.

ken725

November 4th, 2011 at 2:03 PM ^

I'm not sure if we will totally be able to stop Coker.  Also Vandenburg or whatever his name is has the 2nd highest passer rating in the B1G right now.  If we can't get to him, it might be a long day because he is very accurate. 

Moleskyn

November 4th, 2011 at 1:06 PM ^

This is a tough one. Coker is a tough RB, and if we give their QB time, he could pick us apart. I feel like I sound like Hoke, but this game is going to be won up front for us. Can our DL and LBs contain Coker in the running game? Can our DL get enough pressure on passing downs?

I'm going to say 24-21, Meeeechigan.

BrownJuggernaut

November 4th, 2011 at 1:10 PM ^

This game will go a lot like the Northwestern game. I think Iowa will keep it close early, but eventually, Michigan will bust it open with a few running plays. The big difference between this Iowa team and last year's Iowa team is their inability to stop the run and get pressure on the quarterback, forcing mistakes. Their newfound weakness plays into Michigan's strengths. I think Denard and Fitz have big days. 

On the defensive side of the ball, the key will be to stopping Coker and McNutt. I would probably look for double coverage on McNutt and crowd the line of scrimmage to stop Coker. This team is stoppable. Minnesota with their division 3 tackling stopped Iowa last week and it resulted in a couple missed field goals. Michigan's defense can put a much stronger push on them.

Michigan 42, Iowa 20.

yeahrice

November 4th, 2011 at 1:11 PM ^

I guess I'm the only one who thinks Iowa will be pissed about their loss to Minny. I think they will come out on fire. I'm not sure if we will be able to keep up in the first half. Second half we will improve, but my prediction is 24-14 Iowa.

justingoblue

November 4th, 2011 at 1:58 PM ^

Not saying this definitely means we win, but Iowa has a passing offense giving up 239ypg, which for comparison is one yard more then Northwestern, and 34 more than Purdue. Their rush defense is giving up six yards per game less than Purdue, and their scoring defense is ranked behind Purdue, Notre Dame and MSU, which we averaged 28.3ppg against. Iowa has not shown they can stop an offense like ours. Fourteen points would be an embarrassment against their below average defense.

JohnCorbin

November 4th, 2011 at 1:16 PM ^

Just because they lost to Minn doesn't mean this is a cakewalk for us.... or does it?

USC beat Minn by 2 points, losing to Stanford in triple overtime.  

So, if Lou Holtz logic applies, we beat Minnesota by 58, who lost to USC by 2.  USC trounced ND by 14, who beat pitt by 3 and Iowa beat Pitt by 4.  If Lou Holtz' calculations are correct, we should beat Iowa by 69 points.  (58 - 2 + 14 +3 - 4) 

In all seriousness, I think this is one of the closer games we have this year.  If Denard shows up in the passing game we'll blow them out of the water, but if their defense is strong, I think we win 27-23.

Another thing ot worry about, our OL depth this week in particular.  Barnum and Lewan aren't 100%.

RJWolvie

November 4th, 2011 at 1:16 PM ^

I expect our D to be tested by a top back & receiver combo, and a QB who doesn't throw INT's much even though he only throws to that one receiver. Eventually, though, their D wears down trying to keep up with DRob & Fitz. UM wins as long as they keep turnover ratio no worse than -1. Score: 34-27. Go Blue!