Michigan - Spoiling B1G Playoff hopes since 2015?

Submitted by Blau on November 8th, 2015 at 2:39 PM

First MGoBoard post, so please hear me out before commencing Neg-vember.

If Michigan wins out, MSU loses to OSU (2 Ls) and OSU loses to UM (1 L late season, no B1G Title game) and we beat Iowa in the B1G Title game (1 L late season and crappy strength of schedule), I could see the B1G being left out of the top 4 CFB playoff.

I know we all despise playoff scenarios as we are likely not going to be discussed a whole lot but I have a hard time believing a two-loss conference title champ (UM), a 1-loss B1G runner-up with a bad SOS (Iowa) or a 1-loss team who didn't even make the B1G title game late in the year (OSU) jumping into the top 4.

Updated with pretty much my same scenario but whatever... I'm not here:

 

Updated bowl projections, with Michigan knocking Ohio State out of the Playoff

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/8/9691220/bowl-game-projections-2015-ncaa-football-playoff

Comments

Zak

November 8th, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^

UCLA has two losses and controls it's own destiny to win the PAC 12. I believe if Stanford beats ND, and UCLA wins the PAC 12, we'd have a decent shot for the playoffs.

I'm just hoping for a B1G championship, if we make the playoffs that will just be icing on the cake

Year of Revenge II

November 8th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^

I think the Big Ten Champ and the SEC Champ, no matter who they are, are going to be in the playoff.  And I think the Pac-12 Champ will be too most years.  We'll have to see how it all pans out, but I am betting those two conference champs get in.  Somebody is going to be wailing this year, cause ND might have a case, and Clemson looks solid unless they lose ACC Championship game.  Lack of champsionship game may again hurt Big 12.  

UAUM

November 8th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^

with that scenario.

I have no problem winning out and not making the playoff. Winning the Big Ten and beating OSU is the best a 2 loss team can hope for, save winning its bowl game.

Michigan Eaglet

November 8th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^

We already are the top ranked 2 loss team in the college football playoff rankings and several teams ahead of us including LSU, MSU, Memphis, and FSU all lost. We'll likely jump up to around 13 or 14 this week but for arguments sake, we beat the (as of right now) #3 team and #9 team and we're likely in. If that's the case I think it would be Clemson, Alabama, TCU and us, assuming everyone wins out. The only thing is that Notre Dame is still sitting there  with Stanford. We need Standford to beat ND and the to lose to someone in order for the Big Ten to have a clear shot for a potential spot for us.

SpikeFan2016

November 8th, 2015 at 3:23 PM ^

Well I can promise you that TCU won't in the playoffs haha. 

 

I'm more than content with a Big Ten Championship and the Rose Bowl.

 

For the playoffs though, I think we'd likely need the Big 12 to cannibalize itself in the last few weeks. Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Oklahoma but loses to TCU. Then Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and TCU. Maybe Texas pulls off a miracle vs. Baylor. Something of that nature.  

 

Also, it would be huge if Stanford lost another regular season PAC 12 game, but beat Notre Dame and then won the PAC-12. Two loss Michigan is in over two loss Stanford, especially given our respective Northwestern games. 

 

The PAC 12 and Big 12 seem like the most vulnerable to not be represented. The ACC should be in with Clemson and a two loss Michigan would be behind a two loss SEC champ, but if Notre Dame loses and we can beat out one of the former two conferences that'd be great. 

Michigan Eaglet

November 8th, 2015 at 3:02 PM ^

We already are the top ranked 2 loss team in the college football playoff rankings and several teams ahead of us including LSU, MSU, Memphis, and FSU all lost. We'll likely jump up to around 13 or 14 this week but for arguments sake, we beat the (as of right now) #3 team and #9 team and we're likely in. If that's the case I think it would be Clemson, Alabama, TCU and us, assuming everyone wins out. The only thing is that Notre Dame is still sitting there  with Stanford. We need Standford to beat ND and the to lose to someone in order for the Big Ten to have a clear shot for a potential spot for us.

PeterKlima

November 8th, 2015 at 3:05 PM ^

How would the Big Ten champ who knocked off two ten teams including the defending national champ NOT be in the playoff conversation. Plus, the appeal of Harbaugh to the selection committee? it would be hard to keep them out. it would obviously be a discussion point.

Heywood_Jablome

November 8th, 2015 at 3:17 PM ^

because a 2 loss Michigan is not going to jump a 1-loss power 5 conference champ.  1 power 5 conference champ is going to get left out regardless, not to mention ND is still lurking, so possibly 2 conference champs could get left out.

Going to need to hope for upsets in the conference title games where a weaker division champ knocks off the higher ranked team, and even then it might not be enough.

drzoidburg

November 8th, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^

would jump a 1 loss team like baylor that didn't play anyone nonconf or a CCG, and has no name recognition, and a 2 loss team from Pac-12 is also very possible

ND is the wild card however, and i also wonder about a 1 loss team like lsu climbing back up

but all this means nothing if STAEE beats ohio or we lose another

DenverRob

November 8th, 2015 at 3:24 PM ^

If M knocks out osu of the playoff, I would be happy. Chaos is needed for M to have any chance for the playoffs. Beat osu is the number one priority of his season for me.

Blau

November 8th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^

I didn't tell the MGoPublic not to neg me. Only to consider a theory, albeit a little far-fetched, to be considered.

Frankly, I'm just happy that we can actually have fun discussions like this and it be somewhat relevant to our current team.

It feels good after years of mediocrity that were slowly developing into decline for our football program.

That is all. No harm, no foul.

ChopBlock

November 8th, 2015 at 3:26 PM ^

irrespectivr of the national title picture, yesterday's MSU loss brought a lot of clarity to the big 10. right now MSU and OSU both are in the driver's seat. If Ohio State wins vs MSU, then a MSU is out. Then The Game would be a de facto eastern division championship game, as it should be

UMxWolverines

November 8th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^

Stanford and Notre Dame still have to play so that will eliminate one of those. Probably best for Stanford to win because a one loss ND isn't getting left out. Stanford and Utah are probably going to have to both lose again. The Big XII might eat itself when Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Baylor still have to play each other.

mgobleu

November 8th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^

There was a time during the sparty game that I briefly thought about the potential of a playoff berth. That dream pretty much died when, well...bad stuff happened. Now I have some slight irrational hope for a B1G title, but to hell with it. Just win whatever damn game they put you in, enjoy the chaos when you do, and tell the world to watch the f**k out next year.

Stuck in Lansing

November 8th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^

Things we control: beating the rest of our schedule, getting into a New Years Six game.

Things we don't: hoping OSU beats Staee, Big 12 chaos, Clemson losing, ND losing to Stanford, Stanford losing PAC 12 CG.

We can get an at large New Years Six by winning out. Obviously OSU is the biggest mountain.

Moonlight Graham

November 8th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^

We could get an NY6 bid even with an OSU loss, if we play them tough. Ole Miss got into the Peach Bowl last year with three losses that were worse than what ours would be. I have this vision of UM-ND in the Peach Bowl for some reason but I doubt that's what the selection order would land on.

Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

PeterKlima

November 8th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^

How would the Big Ten champ who knocked off two ten teams including the defending national champ NOT be in the playoff conversation. Plus, the appeal of Harbaugh to the selection committee? it would be hard to keep them out. it would obviously be a discussion point.

Gob Wilson

November 8th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^

I really don't care about what is out of our control. The 4-team playoff is flawed for the obvious reasons. If we win out, we are big-10 champs and win a rose bowl. If we happen to get into the playoffs great, but there will be crying by someone.

It rarely can get better than winning the B1G championship and a Rose Bowl.  This is a Harbaugh team. He will make the best of what we have, which is good and no question is going to get better. I am so happy with Hackett and Harbaugh. We are a force again. Love the effort, the steel spine and the team. 

Brendan71388

November 8th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^

I would be elated if the B1G was left out of the playoff, considering I don't think M has a real shot even is they win out and win the conference championship game.

I've never been a "Big Ten fan." If Michigan isn't a major reason why the conference is good or highly regarded, I couldn't care less about it.

Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

MChem83

November 8th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^

This is not a playoff cailber team.  Not even close.  Watching Clemson/FSU and Alabama/LSU yesterday, it should have been clear to anyone that those teams (not to mention others) are at a whole different level than we are in terms of speed, athleticism, depth, offensive firepower and just plain talent.  Everyone has seen the type of team that finishes the season in the top 5, and we don't look like that.

The cold hard fact is that we will almost certanly lose to OSU, and will likely lose one of our two remaining road games.  8-4 is our most likely finish, with a shot at 9-3, but no better.  

GWUWolverineFan

November 8th, 2015 at 4:18 PM ^

What is drastically different on this team from last years which hung close with OSU before Drake going down? On the road?

Gardner is gone.. And he made some plays, but I think most would agree Rudock is a better QB.

Lost some guys on the D-Line but I don't think it's much of a downgrade.

While I don't think it's a sure thing to beat OSU I don't think it's certain we will lose to OSU.

Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad