Michigan should be #4, ahead of LSU

Submitted by The Mad Hatter on October 25th, 2018 at 11:43 AM

The stunningly beautiful and obviously brilliant Maria Taylor argues that we should be the #4 team when the first CFP Rankings come out.

Also, Pep said we reworked our entire offensive scheme to suit Shea's talents.




October 25th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^

It won't matter because there is so much football left.  Almost all the one loss teams will have two losses by the end of the season.  The SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 will just prey on each other the next couple weeks.  We just need to keep winning games and it will work out.


October 25th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^

I mean, LSU plays Alabama in a week and a half.  They're about to either be behind us or very deservedly in front of us, depending.  Not really a big deal.


October 25th, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^

Unfortunately it would be debatable if bama loses a very good, close game to LSU and then destroys the competition the rest of the way and LSU wins out. 

If Oklahoma or Texas is lights out the rest of the way (not just winning), then they could be in the picture. 

But, I certainly think if Michigan wins out they very, very likely make the CFP. 


October 25th, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^

Completely agree.  People are freaking about nonsense.  Bama made it last year as an 11-1 non-champ because all the other conf champs had two losses, the best of which, OSU had a 31-point loss to Iowa.

Absolutely zero chance Bama makes it as an 11-1 divisional runner-up over a 12-1 B1G champ Michigan.  Zero. They'd have very few quality wins and would have lost their one tough road game.  Just not enough.

There is a tiny chance a 12-1 conference runner-up Bama makes it if they lose the SEC title game and a lot of other things go wrong for M (B1G East teams keep losing to teams M doesn't play, etc).  But even that is a small chance. 

If LSU beats Bama, the SEC WILL NOT get two teams in before M makes it at 12-1. Full stop.  Will not happen.



October 25th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^

True for the polls. Quite possibly true in the committee rankings. But not exactly unreasonable, either. If they were to lose, their one loss would be barely less impressive than our one loss (no way they get blown out, after all) and while their schedule hasn't been gangbusters, our biggest win is against a Wisconsin team that isn't lighting the world on fire. 

Since a Bama loss to LSU is the only real way for the SEC to get two teams in the playoff, I'm actually not really in favor of it. 


October 25th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

I think that's the deciding factor. A couple of quality wins for bama and I see the argument they're one of the four best even with a loss to lsu. Without them,  the lack of a division or conference title means they should be excluded just like a 1-loss notre dame  would be. And if a choice then boils down to a 1-loss bama or nd, the committee should pick nd based off strength of schedule. It's about time Alabama got punished for their pathetic ooc scheduling.


October 25th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^

Alabama, like Michigan, schedules one quality non-conference opponent a year. This is not Oregon scheduling a bunch of patsies. They schedule well. 

As it happens, Louisville has turned out to be a disaster this year. But scheduling them wasn't a bad idea at all--just two years ago they had the look of an elite team with Lamar Jackson. The year before they played a top five FSU team that had just come off of a good season and that win over us in the Orange Bowl. And the year before that they pummeled a USC team that wound up beating Penn State in the Rose Bowl. 

This year their schedule has a lot of flimsiness. But it's not for lack of trying on their part, in contrast to some other SEC teams.

One of the problems we run into with Bama: We have a better schedule, and if they have one loss, they are both pretty good losses. But the quality of our wins is taking a hit as teams like Wisconsin and MSU look to have disappointing seasons. And Alabama has looked absolutely dominant on the field, something that the committee has openly stated that they look at. 


October 25th, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^

Stepenjrking, I find you to be insightful and reasonable in your comments. This time I think you're off base.

Alabama's non-conference schedule is significantly less challenging than Michigan's, almost every year, for four reasons:

- The SEC has 4 OOC games, and only 8 conference games. I've read that persists because SEC bottom feeders want to load up on cupcakes to reach bowl eligibility, but it hugely benefits 'bama too. This year the tide's OOC opponents are LA-Lafayette, Arkansas St., Louisville, and The Citadel. Sheesh.

- While you're correct that they schedule one OOC game that appears to be a challenge every year, it's always at home or on a "neutral" site in the south. They never schedule home/homes, or travel outside their region.

- They always schedule an FCS body-bag. The last three years they've scheduled Chattanooga, Mercer and The Citadel. Ridiculous.

- Worst of all, that body-bag game is scheduled late in the season - typically Mid-November. That's absurd. So, 'bama gets a bye week AND a second "off" week in the heart of their season.

If Alabama scheduled a second P5 OOC opponent in their November slot, it would make their schedule closer to parity (there's still more at stake in conference games).

There was a time when the SEC was head and shoulders above the B1G top-to-bottom, but that's no longer the case. Bama's schedule is a joke this year. 


October 25th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^

One thing I think you're forgetting here is that in this end of season scenario, we'll have beaten OSU by that point as well. So that quality win conceivably would trump anything Bama would have (assuming here that they'll lose to LSU, which I highly doubt will happen anyway). 

People seem to be comparing our current resume/wins to Bama's end of season resume/wins, which obviously isn't apples to apples.

Chitown Kev

October 25th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^

There are many reasons to knock 'Bama but their OOC scheduling is not pathetic other than the pasty that they before Auburn every year...the last three years, they have opened with and beaten USC, Florida State and Louisville...it's not 'Bama's fault that FSU and Louisville turned out to be shitty and USC was just...OK...and befre that, I believe they played Wisconsin

Chitown Kev

October 25th, 2018 at 8:28 PM ^

Practically, yes...but I am not going to blame Alabama or anyone else for scheduling the USCs and Florida States of the world...not even Texas...OSU scheduled TCU this year, for example...that's not going to help them much...Alabama along with LSU and Tennesse was one of the few SEC teams that would schedule difficult OOC games and evevn, occasionally, on the road. Sometimes, a team turns out to be a dud...see Utah scheduling Michigan in 2008

Durham Blue

October 25th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

LSU beating Alabama, though satisfying to many, plants a seed for potentially two SEC teams getting into the CFP.  My wife is an LSU alum and her family are all big LSU fans so I am at a cross roads here.  I want the easiest path for Michigan into the CFP but LSU beating Bama creates a bumpier road for Michigan.


October 25th, 2018 at 11:53 AM ^

Who cares? 

We have an opportunity to get 3 more good wins (PSU, OSU, and B1G West Champ). Win those and we go to the CFP. Loss one and our current ranking won't matter at all. 

All this positive chatter is great for recruiting, but that's it. 

Reggie Dunlop

October 25th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^

I dunno. The first I saw it was by Indiana blog Crimson Quarry on Twitter. That was at least last year, maybe two years ago. I don't know that they started it, or why it started, but it's been around for a little while. 

**Edit: Checked with Crimson Quarry on Twitter. As far as they know, they were the first to do it back in 2015. So that's all I've got.