Michigan PSU Quarterback QBR comparison

Submitted by Rdog on October 17th, 2017 at 10:09 AM

McSorely's performance this year has been above average but not great with a Total QBR of 63.9 YTD.   O'Korn's average Total QBR rating is 52.4 for the season.  

Overall, McSorely has been better every week than Michigan's QBs with the exception of Game 4 when Michigan played Purdue and PSU was at Iowa.

Versus the one shared opponent Indiana.  PSU was at home while Michigan was an away game       PSU had a TQBR of 54     MICH had a TQBR of 39.5

 

Game 1 2 3 4 5 6
  Opp TQBR Opp TQBR Opp TQBR Opp TQBR Opp TQBR Opp TQBR
PSU AKR 75.4 PITT 58.1 GAST 96.9 IOWA 48.2 IND 54 NW 62.6
Michigan FLA 42.1 CIN 27.6 AF 27.5 PUR 88.8 MSU 29 IND 39.5

Comments

FanNamedOzzy

October 17th, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^

After seeing how we did against Cobbs, I like our chances. Cobbs is probably the best WR in the Big Ten and one of the best in the country.

A bigger question will be "How ticky-tacky will the refs be on DPI or defensive holding".

Squash34

October 17th, 2017 at 2:00 PM ^

PSU has gone almost completely away from the deep 50/50 balls. Their offense largely goes through barkley. Before their indy game (which they kept their starting offence in with 6 mn left in the 4th and up 21 to pad their stats by passing every play in a HUNH offense) barkley was statistically their best recieving threat. I beleive he had close to the most catches, if not the most, and the most yards.

 

Blue in Yarmouth

October 17th, 2017 at 2:51 PM ^

Sadly, I think this is where the biggest test will be. I think our DB's can handle whatever is thrown at them and I think the front 7 will play very well and limit Barkley in the run game. My fear is our LB's covering Barkley as a receiver out of the backfield. We have struggled with that for years in terms of wheel routes and throwback screens to RB's. That is what makes me n=most nervous about this game...Barkley's receiving ability. 

Apureidiot

October 18th, 2017 at 3:05 AM ^

Long and/or Watson will get the tight end Gesicki (And shut him down for sure) and the next best receiver. Metellus and Kinnel will be played pretty close (10-15 yards or less) to the line of scrimmage, if not at the line of scrimmage covering guys.

I think we will have our fastest LB at 250 pounds (Wrob or Furbush or Mccray? ) and Bush conservative blitzing (blocking routes and blitzing hybrid). Hudson will probably be switching roles with Metellus at VIPER to make sure we don't have ball carriers getting loose.

The D-Line? Chase after the ball and make sure to diagnose screens correctly to avoid overshooting.

On the defense, we are more talented than Penn State from top to bottom. Barkley is great, no question about it, but most of Barkley's extra yards come from making less-athletic guys miss tackles. This usually happens when the defense isn't disciplined, which isn't the case at all for us, as we already played Air Force quite effectively.

Basically. I think the pressure will be great with the D-line collapsing the pocket on Mcsorely every single time and the LBs making sure they lose yards. PSU, are you getting your backup QB ready?

On offense?

We'll see when the time comes.

Maybe we should try the mesh routes more and pull out more from the playbook? Maybe Tresselball will help? We do have a ridiculous special teams unit. Foug could pin them deep at the 2. Defense forces a 3 and out. They punt and DPJ gets it across midfield. We gain a few yards and kick a field goal. Repeat?

SugarShane

October 17th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^

I've watched most of their games.  I'd argue that other than Iowa, Mcsorley has been more important to their success this year.  Teams are loading up Barkley with good reason, but Mcsorley is more than capable to take advantage of it

NittanyFan

October 17th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^

NW decided to go all out against Barkley.  Left the WRs more open than usual and I thought McSorley did a good job consistently finding them.  Think he had about 15 straight completions at a point.  I feel like Northwestern was McSorley's best game in 2017 but obviously QBR disagrees with me.

Bigger picture --- McSorley's a weird one.  Un-classic form as a QB, poor arm strength and seems to throw some questionable footballs at times. 

But his interception rate has consistently been below-average in his PSU career, and he's really had only one game in his entire career (Michigan 2016) where the offense wasn't moving the ball.

High school is high school --- but he also won 3 state titles as a starter then and PSU is 17-3 with him as a starter.  Many of those PSU victories of the comeback variety.  He tends to win.

NittanyFan

October 17th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^

as regards the match-up.  Michigan 2016 IS the one game where McSorley just didn't have it.  At all.

He just is so weird.  I can't disagree with folk who say "well, he doesn't have a lot of natural QB strengths and he's gotten lucky and his team's record is bound to regress over time.  His Captain Comeback routine won't work forever either."  

But, as of yet, that regression STILL hasn't occurred.  Iowa was Iowa - it was, in the end, a win.  He does seems to have, to at least some degree, that "winner intangible."

NittanyFan

October 17th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^

6-5 in 2013 at Houston (started the last 11 games).

2-3 in 2014 at Houston (started the first 5 games).
 
Then 2-1 at Michigan.

By my count, he's 10-9.  Maybe I'm wrong though.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/545550/year/20…

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/545550/year/20…

 

Squash34

October 17th, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^

Mcsorely really struggles under duress. It seems to be because he drops his eyes to the incoming defenders and never really gets them back downfield unless it is just one guy ad then he can roll out.

I don;t think it was a surprise that Michigan D was the only one that completely shut down PSU offense last year. Brown brings havoc in a way that you will not be able to run outside the pocket and throw on much. To beat it consistantly in the passing game you need a QB that can stand in there and make fast reads and get the ball out fast. Or have a great line that can pick up all the blitzes.

People like to dismiss the blowout to solely the LB injury situation. While that made it much easier for Michigans offense, Harbaugh shut it down in the second half and went vanilla and conservetive because he did not need to. This was because the line was extremely overmached and Mcsorley was scrambling for his life and could not pass downfield. That was the real reason for the blowout and will be something they need to overcome this weekend to move the ball consistantly.

Squash34

October 17th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^

I have watched most of there games too, and only missed Iowa.  Barkley has balled Mcsorley out in the passing game almost every week.  Mcsorley threw a horrid swing pass early in the Indy game and Barkley calmy jumped and reached behind him with his right hand and plucked it out of the air.  Not only was it a catch that most WR dont make, he did not even lose balance. Scales was coming at him right after the catcha and barkley took one step and put a barry sandersesque juke on him and went for forty.  Brkley has done things like this all year that make the PSU pass offense, and Mcsorley look better than it is.

I will say Mcsolery looked pretty good very late in the Indy game. However, early, when he was getting pressured by Indy, he took the poo-poo in his pants on every pressure.

oriental andrew

October 17th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^

He's also on pace to throw for fewer yards on more completions, fewer TDs, and have a lower QB rating than last season. 

His total QBR, per ESPN, is 48th in the country and 5th in the conference, behind folks like Nathan Stanley and Alex Hornibrook. And let's not get excited by the fact that he's 5th in the conference. He'd be 9th in the ACC and SEC, and 7th in the Big 12 and Pac 12. Heck, that rating would be 6th in the MAC. 

So no, he's no pushover and the team needs to be ready for a more balanced attack, but he's also not a world-beater. I think this is a manageable matchup for Michigan. Biggest things to worry about are misdirection plays, various screens, and pick plays, with which others have had success. Also Barkley b/c Barkley. 

Yo_Blue

October 17th, 2017 at 10:27 AM ^

McSorley has been bailed out the past couple years with many of his downfield throws.  It's time for that shit to end.  ...hopefully spectacularly with multiple picks.  He looked pretty good at the end of the Iowa game.  If you notice the winning 4th down TD pass, there were two PSU receivers and either one could have caught the ball.  I'm not sure that was the play design, but they got away with drawing extra defenders to the point of the catch.

UMAmaizinBlue

October 17th, 2017 at 10:32 AM ^

The key matchup in the game to me isn't Barkley vs. the DL/LB, but McSorley Arm Punt(?) vs. DBs ability to make him pay.

Here are heights of PSU receivers (* denotes starter):

*6'1" -- *6'4" --  *5'11" -- *6'6" (TE) -- 6'4" -- 6'3"

 

Hill = 5'10"

Long = 6'0"

Kinnel = 5'11"

Metellus = 6'0"

 

Fyodor MikHAILovich

October 17th, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^

Jourdan Lewis just had some Twittering about how height doesn't matter in CB vs. WR. Granted, he's one of the best cover corners in recent memory, so it's easy for him to say that height doesn't matter.

I completely agree, though, that McSorley versus our DBs is they key matchup. I get that you can't let Barkley run rampant, but you'd also love to see a couple INTs. Barkley's (deserved) star power is overwhelming the natiaonal and even local conversation about this game.

Here's hoping everyone's talking about Hill and Long after this game and not Barkley.

APBlue

October 17th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^

I think it will come down to McSorely's legs.  Our DB's will be fine vs their WR's.  If we have Bush shadowing Barkley, that could leave some running lanes for McSorely.  

It'll be important for our DL to maintain their lanes and not let him get out of contain.  

If I can think of any more football cliches, I'll post them here.