Michigan Opens as 5 Point favorites
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
Michigan (-5) over MSU.
I think it’s fair given our recent road performances.
Anyone have a list of injuries for either teams?
October 14th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
I feel we should be a 10 point favorite, so we can complain that the oddsmakers are far too generous and we expect a close game. This seems far too reasonable.
October 15th, 2018 at 9:02 PM ^
Sorry to hog by replying to an early post but 10 is right and the give them three for being at home. So I heartily agree.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
MSU: everyone
October 14th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
I can't believe Michigan would let this one slip away.
And Ed Warinner is making all the difference. Michigan St. has the #1 rush defense in the Nation. I don't think it's going to stop Michigan. This is going to be a great moment for Michigan's offensive line.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
I think that's vastly underrating the Sparty run defense. UW's defense was in the 50s in S&P+ and missing their best Edge defender (Loudermilk) before we played.
I'm happy about the progress. It's more than I predicted and almost extreme. But there are much bigger challenges for the M OL these next two games.
I'd also like to see us prove we can take over and beat a good team -- or own a bad team -- on the road. I trust we can. Yet seeing it is better than thinking it. This is a key step for us.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:00 PM ^
PSU’s defense isn’t that good.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
States Rush D has played who? They got carved up by PSU.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
On paper, PSU had a good day - 32 carries for 205 yards. But over half of that came on two runs, of 78 and 48 yards. Their other 30 carries gained 79 yards.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:46 PM ^
Guess we'll have to make sure that those 78 and 48 yard runs end in the endzone
October 14th, 2018 at 7:02 PM ^
Well, they still gave up 205 yards, including a 78 yarder and 48 yarder. Those yards still happened, even if they were in two plays. Can't take them out just because
October 14th, 2018 at 8:04 PM ^
Yes, they happened, but they were outlier events in an otherwise blah day for their offense, which is how they finished with only 17 points, and a loss.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
I agree, this will be the toughest run defense we will face all season. They can be had in the pass game though and our defense should be able to hold their offense in check all day. Probably gonna be close game, with us wearing them out in the 2nd half.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^
Secondary looked just fine yesterday, and we did not exactly get a ton of separation against Wisconsin’s back up everything. We are going to have to sustain a run game against a stout front 7. It is going to be a test for our offense.
October 14th, 2018 at 9:03 PM ^
We have to run the ball successfully (135 yards +) to win this game. We cannot rely solely on the pass. I don't think Harbaugh will take a lot of deep shots in this game because he tends to play road games close to the vest. Most passes will be the dink and dunk variety, IMO. I am really hoping our defense and/or special teams make a TD or two.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
As thrilled as I am with the development of our OL, I don't think we can win next week with 124 passing yards. I hope we don't get caught up trying to outmuscle the MSU rush D. The way to beat their D is over the top.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:03 PM ^
If we do end up passing for ~124 yards, it's because either 1) MSU's pass defense shut us down, or 2) we ran at will during the second half of a blowout again. I don't think either scenario is at all likely, but I'd put better odds on (2) than (1). In other words: an extremely quiet passing day isn't likely, but it's not necessarily the harbinger of a loss.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^
We simply ran so much yesterday to milk the clock in the second half and because it was generally working.
Harbaugh likely won't have a problem passing a lot more if we need to.
October 14th, 2018 at 9:19 PM ^
Sparty's passing D ranks 122 of 129 in FBS, giving up 305 yards/game.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
That's about exactly what I was expecting. Hard to make Michigan a larger favorite in this game.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
My injury guess for MSU:
Back - Chewins, Jarvis, Stewart, Chambers
Out - Beedle, LJ Scott, Cody White
Important questionables: Josiah Scott, Nailor
October 14th, 2018 at 5:07 PM ^
Scott will play. Chewins has been playing. Don’t think Jarvis will play. Stewart has an ankle injury and Chambers a thumb. Don’t know how effective either will be.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^
Glad we have a couple Sparty fans on the board to provide this type of info.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^
Nah. I live mostly on an independent (no front page) Big Ten board (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?board=7.0) -- no team boards. All the fans are mixed. It might sound uncomfortable, but it's probably the most reasonable message board I've ever seen. That's where I get my MSU intel. Over there, I'm "Anonymous Coward" with a Bo avatar (CIMH was too anachronistic).
October 14th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
Which Scott did you mean? LJ is out for the year. Just announced. I've seen nothing on Josiah, but it'll be a bummer if he's back for this one. He's one of the top 2 defenders on their roster.
October 14th, 2018 at 9:44 PM ^
LJ Scott is out for the year? Where have you heard that? I asked a couple Spartys I know and no one has heard that at all.
Josiah Scott could be out for the year. They don't know when he will be back.
October 14th, 2018 at 10:28 PM ^
You're right. That was sloppy of me. I should have worded it cautiously. Just a very credible rumor: torn ligament. Newly circulating on boards, including RCMB.
I didn't believe it until a poster I respect most on a different board said it (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=2181.120). No one else has to trust my 15-year posting history with that guy on a small conference board. But anyway, you asked, and that's where I heard it.
October 15th, 2018 at 12:20 AM ^
Even if Josiah Scott were back, he'd miss the 1st half. He had a targeting penalty in the 2nd half of the bowl game.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^
Is that all? MSU has a good run defense at the expense of their pass defense. Yeah, okay. Feel free to give up the pass to Shea and Co... I don't think this team cares about how they beat you, they'll do it through the air, over the ground, or both. Pick your poison.
UW sold out to stop the run, so Michigan through over them in the first half. In the second, they dropped back a little, and Michigan ran through them (and around them, and everywhere else). Something similar will happen to MSU's defense. Offensively? They don't have the horses to keep up - special plays, or not...
Line should be 12.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
Michigan plays badly on the road. That matters more than anything you just mentioned.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^
Define badly on the road please. We had 1.5 bad quarters against Notre Dame where we lost all the 50/50 plays, after that they executed it was just too little too late.
The offense came out slow on the road against Northwestern, who beat state on the road by double digits. But Michigan still won that game.
The ability of this team to rally and refocus is more important than what it looked like in either of those games.
October 14th, 2018 at 10:24 PM ^
Right. One common opponent -- we beat Northwestern on the road, Spartans lost to Northwestern at home.
October 14th, 2018 at 6:55 PM ^
I’m not sold on our passing game. This was possibly Shea’s worst game through the air, and that was against a banged up, bad secondary.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:32 PM ^
Why throw it when you are running so well.
I like that Shea and even Dcaff are now having more options to run/throw.
I will say that it seems like the receivers need to break away from defenders a little better. Many times Shea had a lot of time to throw and had to tuck it and run or throw it away.
As long as we can complete some throws when needed, I do not care if the qb has 50 passing yards or 300...keep the drives alive is all I ask and set things up.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
UM -7.5 now (18 mins later)
October 14th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
That would be 10.5 on a neutral field or 13.5 if in Ann Arbor.
Doesn't seem too small to me in a rivalry game with MSU coming off a PSU win on the road.
October 14th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
Tarik black back ??
October 14th, 2018 at 4:32 PM ^
Our defense and Shea give us a good chance to win. Have to go in their with a chip on our shoulders like they always do against us. We always start out slow so if we can make sure and withstand their early energy, we should wear them down in the end.
GO BLUE!!
October 14th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
We are 0-11 all time vs the spread vs Dantonio. Ugh.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
Harbaugh had yet to win when College Gameday was in town, and yet we smoked them like a Newport last night.
This could be the year all these stupid stats they keep bringing up get broken. "can't beat a ranked team on the road, can't win when College Gameday is here, can't cover the spread against dantonio" ect.
October 14th, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^
Stupid stats, you say? Stand by for the "1-5 against rivals" trope...
October 14th, 2018 at 9:41 PM ^
Can’t win when couches are burning on a cold fall night in East Lansing.(Last Weekend)
October 14th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^
This is the year of breaking trends. Breaking trends on road wins, coming from behind, covering spreads at home, beating ranked opponents, beating rivals and best of all B1G championship :-)
October 14th, 2018 at 5:49 PM ^
Luckily that still allows for a three point win if it holds, which I will take and run with
October 14th, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^
Not true.
michigan is 1-10. Covered the 3.5 spread in 2007. 28-24.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^
Dantonio is 11-0 ATS vs Michigan
October 14th, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^
Until Michigan shows that it can perform well on the road people should bet against them.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^
This guy
October 14th, 2018 at 5:11 PM ^
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
October 14th, 2018 at 4:39 PM ^
http://www.donbest.com/ncaaf/injuries/