Michigan opens -11.5 over Penn State
October 28th, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^
Yes, Penn State has a more than decent football team but Illinois was leading them in the THIRD quarter (with the benefit of only one turnover) and ended with 26 first downs. I love Iowa (except for certain well known cases) and Kirk Ferentz (Michigan offered him the HC position at one time) but they lack depth and experience and fancy stats and the eye test. Iowa is only well ranked at the moment because they effectively beat most of their less ranked opponents. How good does Wisconsin look now? Michigan can't claim a big win and Iowa can't claim a good loss.
Yes, I am biased but I am willing to look at all the numbers and I cannot ignore them.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:03 PM ^
Franklin is good for a couple of those terrible decisions per game.
October 28th, 2018 at 6:15 PM ^
If Stanley didnt play like O’Korn did last year; Iowa wins that game.
PSU is still talented, but this is the game that will potentially send Michigan to the BTCG.
They win this, then they will be 10-1 heading into Cbus, possibly with the East already wrapped up.
They must seize the opportunity that is in front of them: home game, bye week, maintaining sole possession of first place.
Go Blue!
October 29th, 2018 at 8:16 AM ^
Perhaps, but I don't see OSU losing to anyone between now and then. I don't see them losing to mediocre MSU, and I doubt Maryland or Nebraska has the horses to take them down. I could be wrong, but their schedule until then seems very pedestrian.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^
They're obviously not factoring in Dummy Franklin's meaningless field goal
October 28th, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^
If I had to guess, this game will resemble the 2015 version in the score more than the past two years.
Something like 24-10 or 27-13.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^
Think 2016.
49-10 again.
October 28th, 2018 at 6:07 PM ^
Hope so. I think it could be close to as dominant in overall game play, but unless Higdon breaks a big run or we get a return/defensive TD or Shea takes more chances earlier I don't see us running up the score.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:27 PM ^
I have a feeling the game will finish pretty close to the 2016 final.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^
I don't care if it's by 1 or 21, win the damn game!
October 28th, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^
Agreed. Coach is going to start out playing this one close to the vest-like he always does. Hopefully he won't play it too close too long. PSU has good talent...and football is a crazy game. This could be more like Northwestern than I think it should be. However, if this game turns into a blow-out the chances are very high that Michigan will be the beneficiary.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:22 PM ^
Sparty/Purdue taught me that Vegas is usually pretty correct.
However, 11.5 seems a lot.
I suspect it bet down to 7.5 or less
October 28th, 2018 at 9:26 PM ^
Bovada is at -10. I don't think it will go any lower. My bet is in for the good guys.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:23 PM ^
Expect that number to be lower by game time.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:27 PM ^
Vegas is hoping for it
October 28th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^
We'll cover. I'm expecting a two TD win margin.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
The line is about balancing betting, not what they think the actual final point spread will be. Just a reminder...
October 28th, 2018 at 6:49 PM ^
Sometimes the book is willing to take exposure on one side vs the other. Maybe bookie thinks M smashes them but knows the market won’t make them lay the correct number off pts. I wouldn’t be surprise to see Penn state catch some steam here, in which case there will be a lot of dead PSU money trapped at 11... Michigan or nothing on this one.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:34 PM ^
Does this not seem a little high?
October 28th, 2018 at 5:36 PM ^
This line is Vegas begging you take PSU. Line comes down due to % of money on PSU, Michigan rolls and they collect.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:46 PM ^
That seems high for what I was expecting. I went in thinking more like 7.5-8.5 (just begging someone to tease it down to -1.5 or so).
October 28th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
The number at game time is far less indicative of what Vegas thinks the game score will actually be. They adjust to compensate for a lot of money coming in on one side or the other, not because something has changed with the game itself.
October 28th, 2018 at 6:48 PM ^
I think this will be a much closer game. Michigan should win, but PSU has played everyone close, and they tend to just blow leads rather than being outplayed the whole time.
October 28th, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^
They've played everyone close, but they have yet to face a defense like ours (best in the game since 2011 Alabama from a ypg perspective). They've also yet to do anything impressive on the road. Combine that with the fact that they have James Franklin who tried to ice his own kicker among many other insanely dumb things, the line makes sense.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:38 PM ^
All those games were at home.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:22 PM ^
App St outplayed them and should've won...at PSU. Were you ever concerned Michigan would lose in a single home game this season? I think PSU is in big trouble. Michigan will control the game from start to finish. I think PSU gets to 10 points scored but the other side of the ledger will be a lot bigger.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:01 PM ^
Harbaugh 0-3 ATS when coming off of a bye...
October 28th, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^
Small sample size. 1 of those games was the O'Korn/MSU game where Vegas thought he was a functional QB and another was like a 36 point line in a game we won by 33. Minnesota is the only applicable data point to this scenario.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:49 PM ^
And the Minnesota game had some special circumstances attached to it. Jerry Kill announced that very week that this would be his last game as head coach because of his health. And you just knew beforehand that the team would play waaaay above their ability to try and win it for their coach. That's exactly what ended up happening.
If that emotional factor wasn't part of that game, I feel it would have been an easier win.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^
What's his record ATS at home this year?
October 28th, 2018 at 7:02 PM ^
Don Brown is going to destroy that offense.
Penn Sts defensive front is suspect. This is not last years offensive line for Michigan. Greg Frey is gone. Florida St had -21 yards rushing yesterday. The offensive line now is becoming great. Ed Warinner’s line is going to dominate Penn St.
This game is not going to be a nightmare like last year. Michigan should win by 21 or more.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:06 PM ^
Have to think that line will see an adjustment in the real world of betting, but on the field, Penn State does not pass the eyeball test for a strong team. I will not be surprised if we beat them by quite a bit more.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
I feel like you can put at least 6 of those points down to Franklin being shocked/ totally unprepared when Michigan gives them a healthy dose of read-option.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:27 PM ^
I think we win but 11 is quite high. I think we are due for a clunker type of game.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:41 PM ^
Got it out of their system last week...should have won 38-0. Wisconsin could have been 49-3. It is more reasonable to expect that they actually put a complete game together. And BTW, this is why defense wins championships-a great defense generally does not have a "clunker" in them...this looks like a great defense.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
Bama is a -14.5 at LSU. Crazy
and NW is +7.5 vs ND
October 28th, 2018 at 7:56 PM ^
Wow...this one surprises me. They opened at -7 against and MSU team with an anemic offense. -11.5 against a top 15 PSU seems a bit high to me.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:07 PM ^
MSU had the #1 run defense, a #25 rank after beating PSU, and were playing at home. We all know that the transitive property doesn't carry a lot of weight in NCAA football but UM beats MSU by 14 and MSU beats PSU by 4 then UM should be able to beat PSU by more than 11. Plus PSU has no obvious advantage other than McSorley magic which I am hoping has run out.
PSU is not strong with respect to seniors or tall receivers (Notre Dame had/has both.)
October 28th, 2018 at 8:16 PM ^
Michigan will win by at least 17. Message will be sent loud and clear that Michigan is for real. Yes more work to do. Just don’t see Michigan taking foot off pedal.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:38 PM ^
And on Sunday morning they will be in the top 4.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:41 PM ^
Don Brown gonna kick ass and take names. #lastyear
October 28th, 2018 at 8:54 PM ^
Gotta take PSU to cover. Bye week blahs coupled with down after huge MSU high will lead to what I expect to be a slow, slow start, and then there's a mobile, senior QB who is also accurate in McSorley. This game could very well take script from our NW game but hopefully no more than to a lesser degree.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^
McSorely is not very accurate when you look at his numbers vs. the hype/narrative around him as a QB. His running threat is why he’s so good.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:34 PM ^
He has 53% completion percentage.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:58 PM ^
Give me the points
October 28th, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^
I am sure some one had done a statistical analysis somewhere, so...
In what percentage of college football games between power 5 schools does an 11.5 point favorite actually lose?
Anyone know?
October 28th, 2018 at 9:25 PM ^
You should ask Urban Meyer.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
From what I have seen before...essentially 80/20 breakdown for this type of line historically.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:17 PM ^
-10 on bovada.lv. Get it while it's hot. I just plopped a chunk down. The defense is relentless and creates opportunities for the offense. Don Brown has circled this game for a year. No fun for PSU.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:19 PM ^
Why the fuck is this game on ESPN and Florida St. - NC State is on ABC?! That seems completely backwards to me.