Michigan Opens Up +10 at Wisconsin

I kid, I kid.

I would love to see Michigan win next Saturday.

U-M has lost 11 in a row SU as an underdog and 17 of the last 18. The win in that stretch was 2013 at Nortbwestern. In 13 of those 18 games, the line was +7 or smaller. That is a mind-boggling run. Kansas and Oregon State are probably the only other Power 5 teams in that ballpark; even Rutgers has mixed in some SU upsets of late. Obviously Michigan isn’t often an underdog anymore, but other good teams manage to play above themselves every now and then when they’re in that spot (Wisconsin over LSU last year, for instance). It would be interesting to see what the turnover figures are when Mich is an underdog. Seems like U-M gives the ball away like crazy whenever they’re up against better competition.

Higdon and Evans have combined to nearly equal Wisconsin’s premier running back’s yardage. However, the O-line has been pretty leaky at pass protection, and the wideouts have done very little this year since Black was injured. The main passing threats have been the tight ends. If the offense has trouble moving the ball, the defense will eventually tire, and that’s how Wisconsin wins games with the running attack. I think Peters has great potential, and appears to be a heady QB, but without pass pro and experienced wideouts who know how to get open, I think it will be a very difficult game for this team, unless they somehow can play over their heads. That can happen, but based on what we’ve seen this year, it seems like the point spread might be conservative. I would of course love to see our guys pull the upset, however, the rational part of my brain says Wiscy should win by two scores.

I am taking the points!

If the pass game between the QB and WR's doesn't take a leap during the week, I'm not confident in a win. 

Peters looks to be rounding into form with the TE's and RB's though. 

And ended up looking the fool. But I have a hard time seeing how Wisconsin gets a 10 point lead. This is going to be WWI level trench warfare and I'd be less surprised if the game has less than 10 points total.

the points.

+10 seems about right to me.  Our offense is similar to Iowa only our line isn't as good and their QB is more experienced.  Very TE happy and power formation happy with an elusive back or two.  Wisconsin held Iowa to 66 total yards.

On offense, Wisconsin's O line is scary huge, the biggest unit we will ever face.  306, 323, 329, 316, and 334 and the backups that get some snaps are huge too.  They have dgood TEs and FBs like us and they basically try to grind you up.

This will be a low scoring game, 17-6 or 14-7.

+7.5 on MyBookie @ 10:20am central. I like +10 better. I'm gonna watch it for a couple days.

it might have been around 8. But after Wisky blew out Iowa the line moved up. Honestly I think 10 is about right for this game. We need to get healthy before this game. Need Onwenu, Issac and Higdon all ready to go for our offense to have any success.

I think it will be tough for us to score many points and our defense has been giving up a fair amount of yardage lately.  I could see this game ending up like 21-10 for Wisconsin.

And who would have even thought, that three years into this, Harbaugh's team would be a double digit underdog.   Though I do believe, this is the last of it.   Peters has what it takes, he is steady and doesn't have the yips.  We can win with Peters. 

When is the last time Michigan went into a game as a decided underdog against a top team and won?

It seems like its been years since we've had a win like the Iowa win over OSU a couple weeks ago.  We've had big wins in recent years but we've been on equal footing or better going into the games against Colorado, Wisconsin and PSU last year.  This is a great chance to get one of those types of wins.

I think the defense is going to do very well against Wisco. UM's biggest weakness IMO is a mobile quarterback and a run scheme that pushes to the sides when its not a QB carry. Shouldn't be too many of those plays here (as probablyw ill happen at OSU). Taylor is damn good, but Barkley (using him as a rough comparison point) wouldn't have had the game he had if UM (a) hadn't put McCray on him; and (b) dind't have to worry about McSorley sneaking (which he did effectively). 

One important thing I think media/commentators have missed is the amount of time UM's defense has stayed on the field. Would hazard to bet, relative to other top D's, our defense's usage rates are way higher, and yet we are still performing at an elite level. If Peters can just make the check-down passes and keep opponents honest, I think we'll see an exceptional showing on Saturday.