Michigan By the Numbers Week 10

It has been about a month since I last looked at this data for UM, so now that we are 75% thru the season it's a good place to see where UM is among national leaders (top 30ish) or in the "boo" category (70 or worst).   For a comparison to week 5 you can peek here.  I'll discuss the changes a bit below as well.

 

Things UM is Good At

		Natl Rank	Value
Offense
Red zone Offense		6	94.7%
Sacks allowed / game		31	1.44
TFL allowed / game		34	5.33
Defense
3rd down conversion %		2	21.8%
Passing yds Allowed		3	159.4
Rushing defense		3	80.6
Scoring defense		1	11.9
Sacks / game		28	2.67
Tackles for loss / game		28	7.2
Total defense		2	240
Misc / Special Teams
Kickoffs returns		2	33.2
Punt returns		26	12.3
TOP		7	33:23
Turnovers lost		34	12

 

As Brian has been saying, "it is what it is" on offense.  UM was among national leaders in the exact same 3 categories in early October as it is now.  That said the Sacks allowed and TFL allowed have fallen from ranks in the teens to low 30s.  The one thing UM is great at on offense is taking advantage of red zone opportunities.  On the positive front this should be the worst offense in the Harbaugh era.

I will also say the sacks allowed and TFL allowed - while not top 10ish -  are huge improvements from the disaster those categories were in 2013 and 2014.  When you reduce the # of negative plays it is so much easier to have manageable 2nd and 3rd downs.

The defense continues to impress via NCAA stats (which don't adjust for SOS, etc) as well as advanced stats (which do adjust).  In week 5, UM was among national leaders in 7 categories - the same as now.  The only change is "passes intercepted" is no longer among the national leaders while "sacks/game" now is.   Yes we played a lot of bad offenses this year but being ranked #3 in both passing yds allowed AND rushing yds allowed is pretty damn fun.  Most important to winning and losing is scoring defense - we were #2 in week 5 and are #1 in week 10.

Our special teams return games are among the best in the nation - thanks Chesson, Pep, and Lewis.  TOP is obviously a Harbaugh thing - you don't need it to win but it sure helps the defense.  And with Jake reducing our hectic passes intercepted pace in the first third of the season, our total turnovers lost is now a solid 34th.

 

Things UM is Not so Good At

		Natl rank	Value
Offense
Passing Offense		92	201.0
Passing yds per comp		83	11.7
Total offense		86	372.9
Defense
Fumbles recovered		126	1
Misc / Special Teams
Kickoff return defense		76	21.9
Punt return defense		95	10.5
Turnover Margin / game		88	-0.33
Turnovers gained		114	9

 

As mentioned above - "it is what it is" on offense.  Passing offense is an issue for UM when not playing 3 freshman DBs from rutgers.  A better passing attack probably has UM 8-0 but on the flip side no Jake probably means even scarier things so we accept it and move on.  The one major improvement is the passes intercepted where UM ranked among the nation's worst in week 5.  That is the one category where Jake's 2015 and Gardner's 2014 seasons dovetail; otherwise their stats YTD are very similar.

IMO the only disappointment in the Durkin defense is the ability to create fumbles - esp since that was a Florida trademark.  It is amazing that thru 9 games we've created 1.  On the flip side you can say it's awesome how the defense is doing without the ability to create fumbles but it would sure help if we could add to that total in these last 3 games.

Ok I will slap self on hand - after berating the Big 10 for having bad special teams in the prior post today I was a bit shocked to see UM's data in kickoff and punt returns defense.  Fire Borges!!!  The kickoff return defense took a hit last week obviously and 76th is not turrible...just very mediocre.  But the punt return defense stat sort of was a cold splash to the face.  Scratching my head on that one.  Neither of those were issues in week 5 but we do seem to be giving up more yardage the past few games in special teams.  Turnovers gained is also an issue mostly due to the inability to recover fumbles but even the passes intercepted ranks 61st with only 8 INTs by the defense.  Turnover/margin per game being negative is not usually a hallmark of winning teams.

Again first world problems for a team that was having difficult fielding 11 men on a football field last year.