Michigan now -2.5 in Vegas

Submitted by NorcalBlue on September 1st, 2018 at 4:07 PM

That's a huge move at this stage of the game.  Any ND injury rumors?



September 1st, 2018 at 7:13 PM ^

No, a coin flip would be about 0, because the coin already knows which team is playing at home.  If the game was pick'em, then the line assumes that Michigan is three points better on a neutral field, but the game isn't played on a neutral field, so that advantage in team quality is neutralized by HFA.  +2.5 assume that Michigan is five or six points better on a neutral field, but, again, that the game isn't being played on a neutral field.


September 1st, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^

"I'm actually not adult enough to watch Michigan football."

I genuinely feel sorry for anyone who is.  The great thing about Michigan sports is that they give you permission to have those intense feelings about something that doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things, just like you did as a kid 

Perkis-Size Me

September 1st, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^

ND bloggers and insiders have been saying for months now that they expect him to be suspended for this game. While it’s never been 100% confirmed, I’ve ready they’d be shocked if he was playing tonight. 

I don’t think anything has happened injury wise. If it had we’d know by now. I just think bettors largely think Michigan is the better team tonight.


September 1st, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^

Thanks guys. I too read MgoBlog and thus I too know that insiders have said for months that he’s suspended and that Kelly has said he will be dressed on the sideline and “we’ll see”. I’m suggesting that perhaps gamblers now feel certain he won’t play despite Kelly’s continued comments that it’s possible he will play. 

Perkis-Size Me

September 1st, 2018 at 5:02 PM ^

I think part of Kelly’s vagueness is due to it not being a direct infraction with the football team, but rather a direct infraction with the university itself. Kelly isn’t permitted to comment much on those types of issues.

As much as I dislike ND, they don’t screw around when it comes to issues that could damage their reputation as an academic institution. They suspend players that deserve to be suspended, and boot the kids who should be booted.



September 1st, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^

I’ll rephrase - public money is never unbalanced enough to move lines to this degree on the day of the game. The volume is already quite large and there wouldn’t be a major change in public betting patters on the day of. The pattern here clearly suggests sharps coming in with some decently sized cash on Michigan.


September 1st, 2018 at 4:48 PM ^

Sounds like you don’t know, my friend. Vegas lines these days are very efficient. If the books are off from what advanced, predictive stats tell big money bettors, they will get slammed. It’s not always about even money on both sides. The books will take the dumb public’s money if the public is being dumb. It’s about protecting major downside risk that would come by showing bad lines to professional bettors. Vegas lines are extraordinarily strong predictors of games on the whole (obviously not every time, but still), and this is good news for Michigan.


September 1st, 2018 at 5:01 PM ^

Think there were actually 2 moves, first from Mich +1 to Mich -1, then to Mich -2.5. This late that is a fairly big move on such a big game that would have a lot of money already bet on it. 

Apparently then the rumor that Shea tweaked his ankle this week that I heard about 30 minutes ago, seems less likely true, which makes me feel better.


September 1st, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^

It's one lousy rumor which I haven't been able to confirm with anyone. The guy reporting it is saying a friend who is in South Bend is saying it. I don't know the first guy very well and I don't know his friend at all. Probably irresponsible of me to even mention it but my point was with the line moving in our direction, I think that reduces the likelihood it is true.