Michigan @ MSU S&P+ Box Score
Here's the S&P+ fancy-stats box score from Bill Connelly at FBSH. The deeper shades of red on the Sparty line items are good. Surprise-surprise, the only green for the Green is in turnover margin. To Sparty's credit, the MSU defense did make the UM offense look quite average.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
link?
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
I think we're supposed to take his word for it
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^
I have no idea why we didn't take at least 3x more shots deep this game. We essentially did it twice. Once in double coverage and once was the long TD. If we bust one of them in the first half, then the complexion of the game changes entirely.
That being said, loved everything about that game!
October 22nd, 2018 at 6:40 PM ^
Have you heard of this thing called rain? Or hail? How about the concept of lowering variance?
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^
This thread sucks.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
I don't see any picture. Is that cause my corporate overlords have blocked certain images or did OP fail?
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
The link to the MSU box score specifically is here.
Link to the overall updated stat profile for 2018 is here (has the other game box scores).
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:42 PM ^
Damn, all that stuff makes my head hurt.
October 22nd, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^
post game expectancy is only 99% for the MSU game?
seems too low.
ND game is 60%? seems high
October 22nd, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
How does ND seem high? We outgained them, if Chase doesnt hit Wimbush late they don’t get one of their TDs and it’s a FG instead so the score is 20-17 instead of 24. If Will Hart doesn’t mishandle a field goal snap, Nordin likely makes a chip shot and it’s 20-20. Two plays alone and it’s a completely different game. Not to mention Michigan had the ball late with a chance to tie it anyway.
Putting it simply, it isn’t like ND went out there and flat out outplayed Michigan in that game. Michigan got itself into trouble with some bad penalties and a few unforced errors and it cost us the game.
October 23rd, 2018 at 9:39 PM ^
Seems
October 22nd, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
MSU had 0.28 yards per attempt throwing the ball on passing downs. Hot damn.
October 22nd, 2018 at 5:18 PM ^
The success rate on there is very telling, in my mind. Michigan was moving the ball OK in the first quarter and the fourth quarter, but not at all in the second (when the drives kept stalling) and third (when the rain came back). But Michigan State's success rate isn't there at all (which visually comports with what we saw.)
October 22nd, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^
Sorry, the picture was linked OK when I posted it and now it's... gone? Alas, I can't edit, so now this basically a dead thread.
Here's the link from the original site and the image again, now coming from the blog server (right-click\open-in-new-tab to embiggen), so we now have a belt AND suspenders: