dankbrogoblue

October 7th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^

Really depends on your philosophy. Texas has the biggest marquee win of the 1-loss teams with a win over OU, so they deserve to be near the top of that heap in my opinion (even despite their loss to Maryland). Penn State has a close loss to Ohio State and some pummeling of bad/mediocre teams, so there’s a lot of projection there, but it’s understandable.

The one that baffles me is Washington. Their loss to Auburn is looking worse and worse and their best win is a home shellacking of BYU. Otherwise 7 point wins over ASU and lowly UCLA? Probably shouldn’t be top 10 and definitely shouldn’t be in front of us and OU

Edit: I’ll add that Texas has also beaten TCU and USC. Both in pretty convincing fashion. I think Texas’ ranking is earned.

Don

October 7th, 2018 at 2:43 PM ^

I know the pollsters would deny it strenuously, but brand recognition both for the program and especially for head coaches plays an undeniable role in rankings this early in the season.

Peterson has a great reputation among the media and other coaches across the country, and getting UW into the playoffs a couple of years ago still has a carryover effect. Agree that their loss to Auburn is looking less impressive right now.

Herman doesn't have the head coaching resume of Peterson, but he's regarded by many as a legit offensive genius who sprang from the forehead of renowned offensive genius Urban Meyer, and being at a historical blueblood program like Texas amplifies his reputation, deserved or not. On paper they have three excellent victories; we'll see what TX does after the glow of the OK victory subsides.

NittanyFan

October 7th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^

Texas dropped 8 spots in S&P+ off the Oklahoma game --- they're now #38 overall in S&P+.  I view that as a bit of a warning sign as regards Texas.  Turnovers helped them beat them Oklahoma, and the advanced analytics are noting that sort of thing.

But that said, a win is a win.  And teams should be ranked by resume vs. advanced analytics.  I agree with you as regards their resume.  It's pretty darn good.  They have 3 nice wins, and even their loss was a close one on the road against a team that isn't ghastly terrible.

If I'm going purely off resumes, Texas is top 15 (at least).

TrueBlue2003

October 7th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^

Washington is the perfect example of how dumb poll voters are.  Wash lost to Auburn which isn't a very good team, definitely was overrated to start the season.  But instead of rethink Washington's full resume after Auburn loses another one, AND without even considering how bad it is to play nearly evenly with UCLA, the voters blindly move Wash ahead of teams that lost in front of them.

None of this will matter for the CFP.  They've shown a pretty good ability to assess teams for their current resumes and not for preseason expectations.

It also doesn't matter for M.  They'll move up if the keep winning.

 

bronxblue

October 7th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^

Texas I'll give credit to for beating a couple of ranked teams; OU has beaten nobody of consequence this year and nearly lost to Army at home.  I get that they look good on offense, but their defense has been suspect for some time and I think Mayfield covered for a lot of it last year in a way that Murray hasn't quite been able to.

 

dankbrogoblue

October 7th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^

And? The comparable 1-loss teams (Wash, PSU, OU and us) have no wins over currently ranked opponents.

That’s why I mention philosophy. If you’re comparing losses, ours looks the best followed closely by PSU. Texas would be last in that category.

But, If you’re comparing wins, Texas has the best win of those teams. I guess maybe we should bring LSU into the discussion in that case, as they have two wins over ranked opponents, with their only loss to what seems to be a pretty good Florida team on the road. 

The truth is it’s a mix of quality of wins, quality of losses, and projection. All these teams have chances to prove themselves (except maybe Washington, depending on how much you believe in Oregon and Stanford)

If we win the next two, we’ll be in the top 7 when PSU comes to town. Count on it.

bronxblue

October 7th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^

They have a pretty good defense for the Big 12, but nationally they are 35th in S&P+, which in theory takes into account a lot of the "Big 12 offenses" factors in the raw numbers.  That's about where NW and IU hang out.  I think they have a solid defense, but they won because their offense put up 48 points, not because the defense held OU to about their season average in yardage and points.

Chitown Kev

October 7th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^

The Coaches poll has Wisconsin at 10 and Texas at 14, though, which is...interesting...I mean, Texas still lost to Maryland and Michigan did lose on the road to a now Top 5 team...but whatevs

lhglrkwg

October 7th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^

Ha. Is the Big 12 the SEC now? I didn’t see two top 10 teams. I saw two top 15-25 teams who don’t play a lick of defense. Both are going to be 2-3 loss teams

raleighwood

October 7th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^

I don't know about a probable playoff berth for OU or Texas.  The Top 4 "probables" at this time are Bama, Clemson, OSU and Notre Dame.  If they stumble, UGA, or UM/PSU might be the next up.

My guess is that WVU is the Big 12 team with the best chance of getting in.  Based on SOS (and a potentially undefeated ND)....I think it will be hard for a one loss Big 12 team to make the playoff.  SEC, ACC, B1G and ND would all get there first.

 

jmblue

October 7th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^

Being behind both Texas and OU is a little annoying (don't forget that OU almost lost to Army) but whatever.

Is PSU actually higher ranked now than before the OSU game?  Weren't they like #9 before then?  

TrueBlue2003

October 7th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^

Yeah, for all the credit Texas is getting (bumped 10 spots!) for beating OU, what has OU done?  Needed OT at home to beat Army.  Relatively close game against Iowa State.  Only one win over a team with a winning record and that's a bad Baylor team that won't have a winning record in two weeks.

OU has a worse resume than Michigan.  Worse loss (neutral field to a worse team than M lost to), worse wins, more close calls to inferiors teams.

Their defense is atrocious (69th S&P+!!).

MIGHTYMOJO91

October 7th, 2018 at 6:28 PM ^

Not defending OU or Texas, but enough of the "almost lost to" whatever team. You "almost" make a valid point, but not really. Michigan "almost" beat ND, but they didn't. Let's not get too worked up over these meaningless polls, a simple eye test is really all it takes. It will work itself out , a lot of footballs left.

A Lot of Milk

October 7th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^

Texas in the top 10 is all you need to know about how worthless the actual results of college football games are, it's all about the brand. From losing to Maryland and being unranked to going to the top ten for beating TCU and Oklahoma. Wow. Total joke

freelion

October 7th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^

We are in perfect position to get well inside the Top 10 with wins the next 2 weeks. Let's do it!

CompleteLunacy

October 7th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^

Texas no way. They have a worse loss but 2-3 better wins than we do (TCU, OU, USC looks a lot better than Maryland, NW, and Nebraska).

OU is there based on reputation of the last few years. Their offense looks just as potent as when Baker was their QB. The D has always been suspect, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them in a rematch with Texas for the conference title the way the Big 12 is going (WV may have a say in that however)

I agree with you about PSU and Washington.

bluenoteSA80

October 7th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^

These polls are often such a joke. If (I know it might be a big-ish if) we win out, we go to the playoff. I can't imagine our loss to ND at night, in their stadium, to start the season and after seeing how they've handled their business since then, is enough to deny us a playoff berth assuming we win out. That being said, they can F off ranking Texas ahead of us.