Michigan Monday predicts the upcoming season game by game

Submitted by Zoltanrules on June 26th, 2017 at 5:49 PM

Tony Gerdeman never fails to entertain along with providing some pretty good observations.

Here are his game by game prognostications complete with fake computer simulations:


All this makes me wish for September 2nd to hurry up and arrive.

What say you?





June 26th, 2017 at 6:21 PM ^

They have an annual game against Florida St., and also had a few series again Miami back when Miami was MIAMI (YTM). Their non-conference schedule since 1991 (or at least 2000) has probably been tougher than Michigan's, it just so happened that they didn't have to leave the state to schedule it. 


June 26th, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^

Back-of-the-envelope math:

3 non-conference games available every year from 1992 to 2004.  (I forget exactly when 12 games became standard, it was irregular there for a while in the early 2000s)

4 non-conference games available every year from 2005 to 2016.

3 * 13 + 4 * 12 = 87 non-conference games available for Florida.

Florida State, obviously, filled 25 of those games.

Miami filled another 4.

That leaves 58 games.  It is not unreasonable to expect Florida to leave the state for ONE of those 58 non-conference football games.  IMO, they deserve derision for such.


June 26th, 2017 at 6:41 PM ^

Just spitballing without looking up any historical schedules. But I'm going to guess 58 is not that far off from the number of home bodybag games for Michigan and Penn St. in the same time period. I'd bet on Florida having more, but not so much that it deserves derision. Or at least any more derision than the rest of the SEC non-con schedules. 


June 26th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^

U-M has played Notre Dame 19 times since 1992.  Colorado + UCLA 3 times.  A one-time neutral site game with Alabama.  Home-and-homes w. each of Washington, Oregon, BC, Syracuse, Utah and Connecticut.

That's already 38 games, which is higher than Florida's 29 games vs. FSU and Miami.

Not to mention that U-M has a history of scheduling some relatively (relative when we're talking about "buy games") robust teams for their 1-off home games.  Utah twice, Oklahoma State, Washington State, Vanderbilt, Houston a couple times, Oregon State, Air Force.  Probably missing a couple others.



June 26th, 2017 at 7:45 PM ^

It matters when a bunch of your players would have had to stay home because crossing the state lines violates a term of their parole/probation - say, for instance, when, oh I don't know, Urban Meyer was the coach at Florida??? 


June 26th, 2017 at 8:22 PM ^

The raw numbers are farther apart than i thought they would be, but I still had how intentionally deceptive that whole "hasn't left the state" thing is. FSU has been the most consistently good team of the last 25 years, so any schedule that includes them anually is going to be pretty difficult even if the other non-con games are body bags. Resorting to technicalities to downplay that game and make their schedule sound weaker than it was is disingenious and annoys me. 

Besides, FSU was so good for most of that period that playing them once was more difficult than multiple games against the teams on the Michigan list. ND put out quite a few stinkers under Willingham and Weis, for example. FSU never sank that low.


June 26th, 2017 at 8:26 PM ^

Not to mention that they play Georgia at a neutral site every year instead of having home games (Yes I know Jacksonville is in Florida, but the crowd is always 50/50).

And since FSU is away every other year, you have the potential some years for only having 5 home games if you start scheduling road OOC. Ticket holders would throw a fit. 


June 26th, 2017 at 10:04 PM ^

5 home games would never happen. Just don't schedule a nonconference road game the same year the FSU game is in Tallahassee.

Florida schedules the way it does because they feel they're sticking their neck out enough by playing 8 SEC plus FSU. That's why they stopped the Miami series. That's all debatable, but the number of home games isn't a problem. If it were, Florida wouldn't be coming out to play U-M this year.


June 26th, 2017 at 6:08 PM ^

It is hard to argue with 10 - 3. Personally, I think Michigan improves to 11 - 2. We can't know, because of depth and injuries and so many unknowns. For me, an awful lot comes down to what happens with the offensive line. The OL has been substandard for 10 years. I am so much looking forward to seeing the OL return to what it was like when I was still a student, many years ago. I would definitely agree with Wisconsin, Penn State and OSU being our hardest games during the regular season. 


June 26th, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^

Hard to argue. I think people focus too much on the final score in last year's MSU game; MSU was never in that game after the first quarter.

Season comes down to UF, PSU, Wiscy, and OSU. Split those, another 10+ wins and a good bowl game. Might even sneak into the B1G title .


June 26th, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^

My only issue is making Purdue and MSU sound like tricky games. I think we'll smoke both of them. I think we'll be 8-3 or 9-2 heading into the game

South TX MFan

June 26th, 2017 at 6:42 PM ^

We're going to be 4-0 against Florida after September 2. We're going to be 4-0 against Franklin led PSU after October 21. We could drop the game against the Badgers. 10-1 going into The Game and Harbaugh comes through for his first win against Meyer. We win the rematch against the Badgers in the B1G Championship Game and head to our first playoff appearance.

BKFinest that shit.

SD Larry

June 26th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^

interesting.  Appreciate you sharing as that serves to reality check my own hopes.  Somehow, I have a sense we might take PSU and Wisconsin, but we have a really young team.  Don't know if I may be overoptimistic about our running game and how the young defense will perform under our terrific defensive staff, but we have a lot of talent on defense. 


June 26th, 2017 at 7:00 PM ^

Not terrible, but lets take a look at the 1,000 fake simulation comparison for a SOS ranking:

1. @ PSU, 411/1000
2. @ Wisconsin, 439/1000
3. vs. OSU, 492/1000
4. vs. Florida, 537/1000
5. @ IU, 658/1000
6. vs. MSU, 683/1000
7. @ Maryland, 702/1000
8. vs. Air Force, 724/1000
9. @ Purdue, 775/1000
10. vs. Minnesota, 809/1000
11. vs. Cincinnati, 833/1000
12. vs. Rutgers, 949/1000

I'll only counter with how I think our SOS ranking should look, as opposed to arguing that our Fake Simulations vs Rutgers should be 1000/1000, for example.

1. vs OSU
2. @ Wisconsin
3. @ PSU
4. Florida
5. @ Maryland
6. @ Purdue
7. Air Force
8. Minnesota
9. MSU
10. @ IU
11. Cincinnati
12. Rutgers


June 26th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^

That's the only game that I absolutely don't want to see them lose this year. I would trade any other win or a combination of wins for that one. Somehow have to get it done this year against them!!

AA Forever

June 26th, 2017 at 7:10 PM ^

Is that he has us actually winning every single game where we're the favorite, and in real life, that just doesn't happen.  In fact, based on the probabilities he came up with, there is only a 6% change we win all nine of those games.

Unfortunately, this team just does not have the talent, especially on the Oline, to keep from losing at least one game we shouldn't.

AA Forever

June 26th, 2017 at 8:11 PM ^

Other than OSU is probably going to lose at least one game they shouldn't, and maybe even them.  It's not enough to just be better than every team you play.  You have to be overwhelmingly better, and we just aren't.  Even if we were a 90% favorite in every game (and we're not even close to that), the chances of going undefeated are only 28%.  Upsets happen.  That's just the way the world works.


June 26th, 2017 at 7:12 PM ^

Penn State went from getting an ASS WHOOPING by Michigan and looking like an average team to overachieving, beating OSU, and winning the Big Ten.

Why not us? Why cant this team do that this season? Penn State was snubbed from the playoffs but if Michigan is in the same situation the playoff committee will 100% give us the nod due to the views Michigan would draw in the playoffs

It all starts with Florida. Florida sets the tone for the season. Both offenses will be shaky which will allow our defense to dominate


June 26th, 2017 at 7:48 PM ^

Mason Cole is a future first round pick. Bredeson will be an all-american. Kugler will play well as a fifth year senior or be replaced by the top rated center in Ruiz. Onwenu is a massive road grader who will always move the pile. Right tackle is a bit of a unknown, but I think Runyan will do a good job. Yea I dont see any talent on that o-line. If Ruiz starts that would put four of the five as future draft picks of which Michigan had none last year. Those are facts and makes your statement about the o-line and lack of talent just plain stupid. I personally think Drevno and Frey may just know a little more than you. Osu is the only team that may have more talent than Michigan. Michigans defense will smother teams just like last year and maybe more. This season is on the offense just like last year, but I feel pretty good.