Michigan Fans: Current Attitude Towards Our 18-1 MBB Team
Yes, I am aware we have looked mediocre at times over the past month and a half. The offense the last couple games looks discombobulated. Before his rainbow beauty at the buzzer last night, Matthews has been “not good” over the past few games. Iggy had a poor offensive game at Wisconsin and for the 1st half yesterday, and Poole has had his issues offensively the last couple as well. We are 8-40 from three point land the last two, a sweet 20%. After watching the games – I am almost surprised it was that high. In the meantime, Sparty is rolling and looks tough, without Langford playing, and we are going to have to listen all year about how Zion and the young Dookies are the "next coming". I get it.
But people – we are 18-1. No buts – we have played 19 games, many against very good Top 25 teams, and we have only lost one of them. 18-1 baby. You get no fucking style points for wins at this time of the year.
Other bright points: Teske is playing like a beast on both ends of the court. We continue to play terrific D. And knock on wood – we remain healthy. I believe Beilein and Z will help get the offense running smoother over the next few games, Iggy and Poole will get rolling again, and the threes will start dropping. And then there is Matthews. We have such a short memory – up until the BIG tournament last year, everyone on this blog was wondering what has happened with Matthews. And at the end – he was probably our best player in NCAA Tourney. I believe he will be great in March again. And I believe our overall team will be better than the one that pounded Villanova and Carolina earlier in the season.
I think we have learned with Beilein and our team – it is not how you play at the beginning or even in the middle of the season. Those are parts of the journey, and time to learn and grow. It is how you are playing at the end of February, heading into March, that matters.
Those of you who continue to be negative before, during and after “challenging” games on this blog call yourselves fans, but “realists”. However – in my mind, some of you are just becoming whiny bitches. And you know who you are. You can choose to be negative, watching the games and expecting bad things to happen, and continue to be a whiny bitch. But it would be great if we could be more positive on this blog, get behind the team, and have some fun.
Go Blue!
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
18-1 is unacceptable. we are doomed. we are now a tiddly-winks and engineering school. all is lost.
early season was like a sugar high. we were not that good. this last month as been like a sugar crash. we're not that bad. it'll even out and we will start our march to march. trust in JB, its not like he hasn't earned it, x 1,000,000. hey, after he lead that team off a crashed jetliner to win the B10 tournament, he could go 0-31 and i'd still want him to do whatever it is that he's doing.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
yup, the sky is falling.....
wait 'til we're 19-1!
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
someone needs to dust off the pink shoes and warm up uniforms!
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
I miss maar.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
My thoughts: we got off to a fantastic start and outplayed our talent a little. We are not the 2nd best team in the country, but we are a top 10 team.
Our shots will start falling again, and we will drop a few more games due to a difficult schedule...but we will be ready come March. Probably around a 4 seed and I expect an Elite 8.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
I'm enjoying the panic. Brazdeikis & Poole need to just settle down and play within the offense as they did early in the season - before they achieved national notoriety and thought they needed to play like a #LotteryPick.
It may take another game, it may take another month, but eventually they'll settle down and it'll all start flowing again and wide open shooters will start canning threes and we'll start hammering teams.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Let's hammer some teams, Reggie. Old time hoops!
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^
I'd certainly rather they have these sorts of confidence issues (maybe too much of it, then coming back down to earth) in January than in March.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
I think a lot of people have extremely short memories / high expectations about both Beilein and Harbaugh.
Every time I hear someone mention firing either one, I remind them of what we had before either of them were here. Basketball was always okay or awful and football was in the worst 7-8 year stretch in history. Do I want championships? Absolutely. Do I want the team to not be below .500 more? Yup.
Winning does not always have to be pretty, all that matters is you win.
January 23rd, 2019 at 2:14 PM ^
Please for the love of God, stop using the worst decades for each sport in the modern era as the bar.
Beilein clearly doesn't need the help as he has already cemented his legacy as the best coach in Michigan basketball history. Even worse, your comment that Michigan basketball has always been"okay or awful" is woefully ignorant of history and ignores about 30 years of good to great basketball tradition.
Harbaugh, on the other hand is no where near Belien in any material respects and has a lot of work do to not go down as an thoroughly overrated Michigan football coach.
January 23rd, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
Harbaugh, on the other hand is no where near Belien in any material respects
Harbaugh's winning percentage at Michigan: .731
Beilein's winning percentage at Michigan: .649
If you're wondering, after four years at Michigan, Beilein's winning percentage was exactly .500 (67-67).
January 24th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
I apologize for my lack of knowledge of Michigan sports history. I should have mentioned my age, I am 25 and have only been watching Michigan sports for just over thirteen years.
So my memories of Michigan football are the end of the Carr era (good), RR (awful), Hoke (awful), and Harbaugh (good).
As for basketball, I became a fan toward the end of Tommy Amaker's career (meh / bad) and it's been Beilein ever since (started out okay and has been amazing for the last few years).
So yes, I was "woefully ignorant" of history because I was not fan / not alive for the time you are mentioning.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:50 AM ^
The only negative I have ...was the plan to defend Ethan Happ.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
Actually the plan was not to defend Happ. It was to defend everyone else and make him work to get his. They did a decent job shutting everyone else down. They did their part on defense. They just couldn't get the shots to fall.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
I understand that philosophy, but.....We did this in part. UM did double at times. Not sure any portion of the overall plan worked. IF the guy we are allowing to 'get his'....scores almost 50% of the teams total points, I do not believe it was a good plan.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
That is the very definition of success. Michigan made Wisconsin one-dimensional.
Michigan did not lose that game due to the defense -- Wisconsin scored less than a point per possession, even with the end-of-the-game nonsense that drove up the scoring margin. Michigan lost the game due to turnovers -- most real, some only in the minds of the referees -- and shots failing to fall.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
No doubt it's great to be 18-1, but we are not playing like a great 18-1 team.
Michigan State playing the way they are, they will beat us both games and in the Big Ten Tournament if they meet us. Anything above a sweet 16 or Elite 8 would be totally a surprise.
We don't have the offense, and we don't have the bench.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
Probably true about MSU...thankfully we hVe another month before playing them to get things sorted out.
January 23rd, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
Sorry, not worried
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
Pretty simple actually...
We aren't playing good basketball right now.
Some will write it off as a slump, but my response would be that we started out hot and then started playing poorly after Purdue. The problem is that was almost 2 months ago. Great teams don't go that long playing poor to mediocre basketball.
So two things concern me: the length of time that its been since we've played well and how many different players are not only struggling, but look totally out of whack.
Also, shooting 3-22 from 3 at HOME. Even though its one game, that is just hard to digest...
Obviously we've shown we can play at a high level. I'm hoping its just motivation and for some reason we only play as well as we need to.
I don't want to be negative, but something isn't right with this team.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
A team with a true ability of 35% will make 3/22 or fewer about 2.5% of the time, or about one in 40 games, or basically once a season.
35% is Michigan's season-long three-point percentage.
In other words, it happens. That's the random element of sports.
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
Its less than once a season but yeah the fact that it was at home has to decrease the percentage.
January 23rd, 2019 at 2:47 PM ^
No, it doesn't.
This is simple math. Specifically, it's a binomial distribution -- repeated independent* trials of a random variable, in this case, the likelihood of a three-point shot going into the basket. That generates a bell curve, and you can compute, mathematically, the exact likelihood of a certain number of successes.
What you're implicitly arguing is that a team should be better at three-point shooting at home than it is on the road. I can't find a source for home/away splits in college basketball, but Michigan is shooting 35.0% on the season -- 35.7% at home, and 33.6% away from home (27.0% on the road and 43.8% on neutral courts). This is way too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions, but basically I don't think I've ever heard any suggestion that there should be a big home/away split on three point shooting percentage.
*This is key. If there is a nonzero covariance factor -- if the attempts aren't independent -- you have to account for that. However, there's a ton of research on this -- most of it from baseball, but a good amount in basketball as well -- which all tends to show the same thing: that you can effectively ignore the covariance. Individual attempts (at bats, free throws, three point attempts, etc.) are effectively independent trials.
January 23rd, 2019 at 8:20 PM ^
I only understand 3 or 4 sentences here but I'll give you an upvote any way :)
January 25th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
27% on the road.
That is putrid.
35.7% at home.
Don't overcomplicate things.
January 23rd, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
18-1 is great, they’ll get back in the groove and will have a great chance at winning the BIG10 / BIG10 Tourney / Final Four...sparty is playing well right now but not sure it can continue through March / April
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
They played two teams in a row who's entire basketball existence revolves around making the game almost unwatchable. They prefer to play in the slop whereas Michigan is not quite comfortable there. The better teams in the big ten, including MSU, generally try to actually play basketball. Its all going to be fine... as long as they don't get Syracuse in the tournament.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
Sorry dude. We remain Michigan, where expectations are for championships, not moral victories. After losing to OSU so many times in football, and losing our last four times in the MBB NC game (Fab 5 twice, Louisville, Nova), things are not hunky dory.
Michigan grads tend to be people who set high standards for themselves on endeavors to which they devote time to, including their fandom. In school most of us didn't settle for C's and B's, and in our fandom, most of us don't want to settle either, as that only leads to recurring mediocrity.
We are all ecstatic with Beilein and this program relative to the mess he inherited, but it's just in our nature to always seek the highest standard, and to critique perceived flaws that inhibit achieving said standard. This team set a standard over the first half of the season, and has now taken a nose dive of late in terms of quality play. Few doubt Beilein will turn it around, but BPONE dictates upcoming losses to our beloved Sparty brethren among others, and it's OK for us to discuss/fret.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
This was the most unintentionally funny post I've read here in some time. Yes, you're an internet whiner because of your 'refuse to lose' Michigan Man DNA. Outstanding.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
Some people simply do not watch enough Rutgers basketball.
No, the team isn't perfect. But they're good, they work and they're easy to root for. The coaches know what they're doing. The team should continue to improve. Bring on March!
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
Until the home/away splits even out for teams it can be difficult to judge just based upon record. That's why I do a scoring system where you get 1 point for each road win and subtract 1 point for each home loss which places us at Plus 2. That gets you to 12-8 if you win the rest of the home games and don't win any more road games. Obviously I hope we do better but that does put some perspective on IU's record and current 5 game losing streak. They are currently at 0, with one road win offset by one home loss.
MSU is currently at plus 4 (4 road wins), Maryland is plus 3 or one game ahead of us. Purdue is at plus 1. Wisconsin is at 0.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
An interesting perspective - but look at this slightly differently. Looks like we have 5 tough road games left - IU, Iowa, Minn, Maryland, and Sparty. But Sparty also has 5 tough road games - Iowa, Purdue, Wiscy, us and IU.
Truth is - we caught a little break, no OSU, Nebraska or Purdue on the road. Sparty has to play all three, and most of the other tough road teams - just avoids Northwestern in Evanston. But after last years BIG hoops schedule - they deserve the slightly rougher one this year.
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:51 PM ^
I don't think you can look at each game evenly. Lately we simply are playing much poorer than early in the year. If we don't improve, a unsatisfying season result is in store. Hopefully the boys turn it back up -- there certainly is time for that.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
To me, the biggest issue seems to be that Iggy has hit the freshman wall. He was reliably giving us 15+ a night and suddenly we're getting very little (or he needs a ton of shots to give us something, like last night). But if/when he gets over this and can look like the player he was against Nova/UNC/Purdue, we'll be back in business.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
Preface this by saying the team is very good, Beilein is very, very good, and I'm happy with how things have gone. There are obvious holes in the team that other coaches have started to pick up on. They aren't crippling, but now is the time where the coaching staff makes small changes to keep the train rolling.
Simpson can't shoot. 2nd NW game aside, he just can't. That allows teams to slack off on P&R or if they switch the big can just sit in the lane and keep him from driving.
On the flip side, they don't post up Teske when he has a foot + advantage. It was brought up a few times in the Wisconsin game after Happ got switched onto Simpson. Pick and pop with Teske isn't a terrible option, but at this point it shouldn't be this high up in the order.
Matthews can't shoot either. Teams are starting to slack off and not get in his face when he has the ball which limits his ability to blow by guys and get a dunk/layup. When he does get by guys, defenses help and turn him away which never goes well.
Wisconsin showed how to mess with Poole. Hedge a bit and go under screens and keep him from turning the corner. He didn't look comfortable rising up from the outside when the defense went under those screens.
Livers is a very good spot up shooter. Not great at getting to the basket and finishing outside of fast breaks (something Ace or Brian noticed when he was in HS).
Iggy decides he's going to shoot before he even gets to a spot to shoot. Last night the play was for him, but on the pick he had 2 guys on him and help coming, but didn't look to kick or pass off to anyone else. Kind of an embodiment of his offense at the moment.
They need Brooks or DeJulius to step up. A PG like Burke or Walton who can shoot off the P&R is huge. Simpson can keep playing 32+ MPG, but when the offense is sputtering they need some more shooters.
Something they used to do with Stauskas (they do it with Poole now a bit) is run the P&R with him because he could just launch from 3. If Poole gets comfortable with that, they can run the offense through him some more when things get tight instead of Simpson.
Iggy getting back on track will also help. Especially from 3. He has been struggling a bit from there.
January 23rd, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
This team will be fine. If you can't enjoy watching without slamming them, keep it between your ears. This offense is incredible to watch. Which other team looks like us in the 1/2 court?
No one smokes their way through the Big without a few 50/50 outcomes.
Turnovers and multiple guys being off for large portions of games has brought that reality fan attitude out.
Hard to imagine it continues, expect a few road loses, then being right where our staff gets this team for the final run.
January 23rd, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
Michigan will contend for the B1G title. They are the second best team in the conference at the moment, with the ability to move back into the best team with a little streak.
Predicting the tourney right now is pointless. There are things to work on, but we are in a solid spot. But these guys need to win on Friday, especially if MSU goes 3-0 this week
January 23rd, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
The beauty of college basketball is that this is a conversation we don't have to have until late February.
January 23rd, 2019 at 12:23 PM ^
Welcome to the MGOBoard, where we win literally every game on the schedule or the sky is falling, the programs going in the wrong direction, it’s UNACCEPTABLE, and we are a football...no wait basketball...no wait field hockey school now. Some people just want to be miserable. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:39 PM ^
Sorry, no. You mean where Michigan must score on every possession and shut out every opponent -- and even then you'll have people complain if some of it looked "lucky."
January 23rd, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
Re: getting "no style points this time of year," that's not true. The only time where style points are officially off the table is in the big dance. I mean sure, the committee definitely values an ugly win more than a brilliant loss. But they'll sure as shit value dominating wins more than they will ugly wins. Style points could be the difference between a 1 seed and getting a bodybag opponent in the first round, or a 2 seed where you really have to watch your ass every step of the way.
As far as my thoughts about the current state of the team, if you'd told any of us before the season started that we'd be at the halfway point and be sitting at 18-1 as a top-5 team, with our only loss at Wisconsin, we all would've taken it w/o question. Could they be playing better? Sure, absolutely. But Beilein always gets his teams to start peaking right around the middle to end of February, just in time for the tournament. We'll be fine.
And for those wondering why we're not running every team not named MSU off the floor, remember that the Big Ten is really deep this year. Far deeper and better than last year. There could be 9-10 teams that the conference sends to the tournament. And lastly, Beilein does not recruit the same kind of guys that Duke, UNC, Kansas or Kentucky do. When Duke is beating teams by 30-40 points, remember that their entire starting 5 will all be playing in the NBA next year or the year after. Some of those guys look like they'll become All-Pro when they get there. Beilein recruits less heralded guys. Talented, but not the NBA one and dones. He recruits guys that, outside of McGary, Duke wouldn't even give the time of day to. So you're going to be in for some dogfights, because there are more teams that can match your physical talent.
No one in the country can match the raw, physical talent that Duke puts out on the floor. At least not when they're fully healthy.
January 23rd, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
I mean sure, the committee definitely values an ugly win more than a brilliant loss. But they'll sure as shit value dominating wins more than they will ugly wins
I think you're giving the committee too much credit. Fans hyper-scrutinize their own teams, way more than anyone else not named Pomeroy or Torvik does.
The committee members are mostly old ADs, not statisticians. They have way too many teams to evaluate to scrutinize score margins, PPP, etc. They'll pay attention to who you beat and you lost to - that's it.
January 23rd, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
I don't know what else people are expecting. They're 18-1.
18 and fucking 1
Perhaps some of you prefer to go back to being a bubble team.
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:02 PM ^
There are 2 bright spots after last night's game.
1. The team has become offensively challenged. That is a bright spot because it is fixable and JB is generally regarded as one of the best offensive coaches in the game.
Until he hired a DC, the philosophy was to score so many points the opposition could not keep up. This season defense has bought a few wins and with some work, offense will pick up even if it comes at the expense of defense.
2. Brooks is making his sophomore jump right now. I watch a lot of the off-ball action in games after doing video/scouting at the HS level.
At the beginning of the season the game was still much too fast for him. Last night especially, it showed that it is slowing down and he is getting comfortable.
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:14 PM ^
We could do a lot worse. Seriously, when we were undefeated, I thought we aren't as good as our record. But watching the past couple of games, I think we are better than we played recently. We have a solid team with a great coach. I'd rather go into the tournament as a slight underdog. Regardless, Beilein will have them ready. Can't complain one bit as a fan.
GO BLUE!!
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^
I believe all of these games create teachable moments for coach B. I would rather go into the post-season hungry as a 2-3 seed rather than an over-confident 1 seed. Much to look forward to with this team!
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
Ok, I'm a bit skeptical right now.
First, let's be clear: I live in Duluth, the Final Four is 2.5 hours away, and I reeeeeeaaaaaalllly want Michigan to go. I want to spend championship Monday in Michigan stuff down in Minneapolis and watch us play for a title in person. So my "expectations" and "hopes" are all on that level.
So take that as context when I say that right now Michigan isn't where I would want them to be. They started well in the fall, but as things have settled in the rough edges have been exposed, and the defense isn't quite as all-powerful as it looked and the offense has really scuffled.
Right now, this looks like one of those teams that has a really good regular season, earns a 2 or a 3 seed, and gets "shockingly upset" in the first weekend of the tournament.
But that's right now. Reviewing the takes from two years ago, and here the takes from last year, is pretty revealing. So are Beilein's quotes (he was unhappy after a 20-point win over NW! He was unhappy last night!). Beilein teams have had some tricky midseason patches before. Even the 13 team started scuffling quite a bit around this time of year.
Beilein keeps working on the team. He's working on the players and on the system. He pieces things together to perform at the highest level when it matters. This is no longer in dispute; Michigan is 15-2 in postseason play in the last two seasons.
I think we are seeing a time frame where Michigan, buttressed by some impressive early-season results, is scuffling a bit as Beilein tries to mold a roster that features several ball-stopping slashers into a team that plays with efficiency and better movement. It goes against their natural inclination. But it has a chance to work.
And if it does, I'll see you guys in Minneapolis.
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^
Matthews is kind of the enigma now. There's no real explanation why he's playing so poorly compared to his experience and ability - especially since he played so well in the tournament last year. He's not doing himself any favors in regard to getting drafted highly to the NBA.
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^
They struggle when both Matthews and Iggy struggle. As long as at least one of them is playing well, they'll be in every game. When they both play well, we're a veritable lock to win every game
January 23rd, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^
Some observations:
1. We got to get better at 3. We shot 13.6 last night. We are ice cold.
2. We have gotten better at our FT but our team FT% is only .665
3. Minnesota played quicker than us. MSU looks quicker than us.
4. We have to learn COMPOSURE!!!
5. Matthews has become an offensive liability. He needs to get right in the head.
6. We have to drive to the basket and FINISH STRONG AT THE RIM!!!
7. We are 18-1 so take this with a grain of salt...