Michigan BBall Predictions

Submitted by robbyt003 on December 22nd, 2013 at 11:51 AM

Current Record. 7-4

Record needed to make NCAA Tournament. 18-12. (17-13 would require a lot of luck)

That means Michigan needs to beat Holy Cross and go at least 10-8 in conference play.

Here is the remaining schedule:

Sat., Dec. 28 vs. Holy Cross Crisler Center BTN

6:30 p.m. ET

Thu., Jan. 2 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, Minn. BTN 6:00 p.m. CT  
Sun., Jan. 5 vs. Northwestern * Crisler Center BTN TBA  
Thu., Jan. 9 at Nebraska * Lincoln, Neb. ESPN/2 8:00 p.m. CT  
Tue., Jan. 14 vs. Penn State * Crisler Center BTN 8:00 p.m. ET  
Sat., Jan. 18 at Wisconsin * Madison, Wis. ESPN 5:00 p.m. CT  
Wed., Jan. 22 vs. Iowa * Crisler Center BTN 7:00 p.m. ET  
Sat., Jan. 25 at Michigan State * East Lansing, Mich. ESPN 7:00 p.m. ET  
Thu., Jan. 30 vs. Purdue * Crisler Center ESPN/2 9:00 p.m. ET  
Sun., Feb. 2 at Indiana * Bloomington, Ind. CBS 1:00 p.m. ET  
Wed., Feb. 5 vs. Nebraska * Crisler Center BTN 6:30 p.m. ET  
Sat., Feb. 8 at Iowa * Iowa City, Iowa ESPN 1:00 p.m. CT  
Tue., Feb. 11 at Ohio State * Columbus, Ohio ESPN 9:00 p.m. ET  
Sun., Feb. 16 vs. Wisconsin * Crisler Center CBS 1:00 p.m. ET  
Sun., Feb. 23 vs. Michigan State * Crisler Center CBS/BTN Noon or 6 p.m. ET  
Wed., Feb. 26 at Purdue * West Lafayette, Ind. BTN 7:00 p.m. ET  
Sat., Mar. 1 vs. Minnesota * Crisler Center BTN 6:00 p.m. ET  
Tue., Mar. 4 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill. ESPN 6:00 p.m. ET  
Sat., Mar. 8 vs. Indiana * Crisler Center ESPN 6:00 p.m. ET

I predict a 12-6 conference record (losses - @Wisc, @MSU, @Ind, @ Iowa, @Ohio, MSU)

I hate even thinking MSU could sweep, but they're a lot more physical than us and not a team we match up with well.   That'll probably result in about a 6 seed in the tourney. 

I hope I'm wrong and Michigan wins out.

Thoughts?

Comments

aiglick

December 22nd, 2013 at 12:01 PM ^

Yeah 10-8 will do it (as you said absolutely need to beat Holy Cross which isn't a given) though I think Michigan is going to be a handful for teams. It really is unfortunate but Brian's gripes with the schedule are bearing out for now because even though our losses for the most part are "good losses" we only have two victories against teams with winning records. Wisconsin is the poster child for scheduling this year. Basically all their opponents are within 50-100 in the RPI and they have beaten all of them. Florida is probably their best win but that was at home. I hope we take a page out of their book since they are probably going to have good numbers all year due to that strategy.

snarling wolverine

December 22nd, 2013 at 12:18 PM ^

Yeah, for some reason we always seem to get a couple of teams with horrid RPIs on our non-conference schedule to drag it down.  The big problem though is the loss to Charlotte - that alone is probably costing us 30 spots in the RPI right now.  Its impact will lessen as the year goes on but it's always going to be a drag on our ranking.  Beating Arizona would have basically negated that loss, but we couldn't finish the deal.

On the plus side, we probably went up a whole bunch in the RPI yesterday, with our win over Stanford and FSU's win over UMass.  

 

 

freejs

December 22nd, 2013 at 1:21 PM ^

frequently.

Just looking at past NIT champions and runner-ups, for example, a quick scan shows that Baylor 2013, North Carolina 2010, Baylor 2009, Clemson 2007, and Michigan 2006 (and these are just the ones that had a wiki link to their seasons and could be checked quickly) all spent multiple weeks ranked in the Top 25 and didn't make the tournament.

snarling wolverine

December 22nd, 2013 at 12:24 PM ^

How was 2013 the "worst year ever" for basketball?   Let's see: national title appearance, national player of the year, two guys turn down the NBA to come back to school, and the two who did go pro are both successful first-round picks.  I don't think the loss to Charlotte outweighs all that.

 

freejs

December 22nd, 2013 at 4:17 PM ^

This has been the worst sports year of my life by an incomprehensible margin (it's not just Michigan-related). But man, you didn't enjoy the straight up flaying of Florida to get to the Final Four? That was the most fun I've had watching Michigan basketball since Sean Higgins was raining threes on Virginia to signify that 1989 was the year we finally made that climb.

I happen to agree with the crowd that looks at things as pre-April 2013 and then post-April 2013 being its own special 2/3rds of a year of hell, but I don't know how you can leave out the Florida game, or the Syracuse game, or the shredding of VCU. Those were all awesome.

Indiana Blue

December 22nd, 2013 at 4:44 PM ^

If McGary can stay heathy, I think we can go 14-4.  B1G scheduling blows again as we play AT Wisc, MSU, IU and ohio before any of those come to Crisler (and we only play ohio in Mordor).  This team has shown the ability to play up to the next level, but we need a health McGary and some decent 3 point shooting to be really dangerous!

Go Blue!

TruBluMich

December 22nd, 2013 at 12:55 PM ^

Predicting anything for this team is almost impossible.  The inconsistant shooting is what makes it so difficult.  They have been pretty consistant on defense, just average, but at least it's been consistant.  Realistically It wouldn't be a huge upset for the team to win any game left on the schedule.  Records wise, I see them winning at least 2-3 games that they probbly shouldn't and lossing 2 games they should have won.  WILD GUESS 12-6 with the losses being @MN, @NEB, Iowa, @MSU, @OSU and Indiana.  I predict a 5-6 seed in the NCAA tournament.

freejs

December 22nd, 2013 at 1:03 PM ^

actually.

There's no answer to this topic without knowing if Mitch can be fully healthy after sitting out the Holy Cross game (which I'm guessing he will).

Without Mitch, we're a team that will struggle with most teams left on our schedule.

With Mitch, we have a top level big man, a freak athlete who can be a mismatch on the offensive end in many situations, and a defensive presence in the paint (although he has got to stop leaving his man under the bucket - it leads to dunks and easy put backs).

With a healthy Mitch, this still should be a pretty good season. In the other scenario, it's pretty ugly and most games will be desperate struggles.

KBLOW

December 22nd, 2013 at 1:05 PM ^

"I see them winning at least 2-3 games that they probably shouldn't and losing 2 games they should have won."

This for sure^  The freshmen are being freshmen and McGary's injuries will continue to contribute to the inconsistent offense, but I'm a also believer in Beilein's ability to get this team ready to roll come March.  I think we go at least two games over .500 in conference and perhaps even win the B1G tourney. I see a run to the Sweet 16 and way more if McGary is healthy and Walton's developing game doesn't plateau.

jethro34

December 22nd, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^

At worst they go 11-7 in conference and make it in the tourney as a 7 seed. A run in the B1G tourney helps as well. They will go into the dance with at least 20 wins.

freejs

December 22nd, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^

dang, forgot about them!

It's interesting that you've got both Carolina and Kentucky in the last five years as two National Champions who didn't even make it back to the tournament in the next year.

That's got to be a first to have two champions in a five year stretch suffer that fate in the modern-expanded tournament era.

WMU81

December 22nd, 2013 at 1:46 PM ^

Gr3 and Staukas looked real good and know that this is their team.. Also love how albrieght is a solid #2 at pg.. Plus, think of how were gonna look when MITCH comes back healthy.

Ty Butterfield

December 22nd, 2013 at 3:27 PM ^

Good Lord, I have no idea. Just like football this team needs to figure out some way to actually beat a good team on the road. Also depends on Mitch. As this point nothing would surprise me.

Perkis-Size Me

December 22nd, 2013 at 6:15 PM ^

I'm thinking anywhere between 11-7 and 14-4. We'll lose a game or two that we probably shouldn't, squeak out a win or two that we should lose, and it'll all even out.

I think we'll probably lose at OSU and MSU, but we'll be tough to take down at home. I think we'll score a huge win against MSU at home, and we'll have a huge road win somewhere, too. Maybe Iowa or Wiscy, if for no other reason than that school has absolutely ripped our guts out a few times over the past few years. It's about time fate went the other way for a change.

Honestly, if there's any team we could sweep this year, I'd be hard pressed to not want it to be against Wiscy. I despise Bo Ryan and his team. They ruin everything fun about the game of basketball.