# Michigan Basketball not a top 25 team? Huh?

Submitted by robbyt003 on September 27th, 2012 at 1:55 PM

The Detroit Tigers are up 4-0 early and well we need something else to complain about then.  Apparently this Dan Hanner has never heard of Glenn Robinson III and he thought McGary was going to be our entire team next year.  It's a pretty good read, and it does bring up a good point that we did lose arguably our top three 3-point shooters from last year.

Dan Hanner, who writes for Real GM and has been featured in Basketball Prospectus, has noticed a trend in his 2012-13 computer projections. Hanner’s system has dropped Michigan significantly from his original spring projections. Michigan has dropped so far that Hanner doesn’t think the 2012-13 Wolverines are a top-25 team in the preseason. The reasoning: Mitch McGary’s fall in the recruiting rankings (3 to 26) and Evan Smotrycz’s transfer.

NFG

Wow. This guy must also think that the South won the war and that Dr. Pepper 10 is for women too.

Ron Swanson

I currently live in Atlanta, GA and Stone Mountain State Park has a laser lightshow that re-enacts the Civil War every weekend.  On the mountain, they bring a carving (similar to Mount Rushmore) of Robert E. Lee, Stonewall Jackson, and Jefferson Davis to life as they battle on.  This ends by Robert E. Lee breaking his sword, the shards of which unify to become the southern states while they blast "The South will Rise Again".  Everyone goes crazy.  Correction: everyone is crazy.

NFG

If I could moderate this post as "wow, that is fucking sad." I would, instead +1 for insightful.

Tommy Want Wingy

I had to log on specifically to respond to this. I too live in Atlanta, and the laser lightshow is amazing! I go a couple times a summer just to people watch. No better way to spend a hot summer afternoon than getting all liquored up and listening to them babble about the "War of Northern Aggression" to a soundtrack.

stetgor

I spent a summer in Atlanta in the 80's and remember seeing that.  I also remember the golf course at Stone Mountain, which if I remember right, was pretty fun.  Thanks for the trip down memory lane!

tasnyder01

That's like a Brit saying he wished Cornwalis had burned more of America.

Seriously, I know the south has a few red-necks, but we have red-necks in Cali too man. Jeez, if you're going to hate intolerant people, stop judging a whole region of a country by what you hear on radio/TV. It's oxymoronic.

WolvinLA2

Someone should introduce him to Stauskas. We'll be just fine behind the arc.

Baldbill

I don't mind someone under-rating us, I think we have a very young team. One that has lots of talent, but it may need to prove itself. I think this is better than to be hyped up too high then have a fall if some of the breaks don't fall our way.

Gobgoblue

The man named "Dan Hanner" is not smart.

Erik_in_Dayton

The idea that the team was ever going to center around McGary is just wrong-headed.  I'm not ready to pencil Robinson in as an impact player, and I worry about the losses of Novak, Stu, and Smot, but this is going to be a Top 25 team.   This is a deep, talented bunch...I agree with Baldbill, though, that I don't mind this team being underrated.  I think anyone who is buying Final Four tickets is getting ahead of themselves.

Michigan4Life

I am already penciling GRIII as an instant impact player.  To me, he's the crown jewel of the class and JB wanted him long before he exploded into stardom.

What team in the country would you rank ahead of Michigan based on returning talent and incoming freshman class?  As of now, I can count 3-5 teams.  That is a top 5-10 team and has arguably the best PG in the country in Trey Burke.

MGoLogan

I understand not wanting to gush over a player who has yet to play a minute of college basketball, but Robinson is the real deal.  I do some work with the IBA (Indiana Basketball Academy) so I've had several opportunities to watch him play.  There was not a better player in the state of Indiana last year, and I would go as far as saying there will not be a better player in the Big Ten.  I might be going a little overboard, but it is ok to be very excited about this kid.

Inertia Policeman

I understand where he's coming from, losing 3-point shooters in Beilein's system hurts, as does losing the experience (and grit!) of Novak and Douglas. However, does he really think McGary is the biggest star on this team? He's probably somewhere between our third and sixth best player in my estimation.

Voltron Blue

...it's conceptually wrong to call a prediction "wrong" before the thing being predicted happens.  Until it plays out, he could be absolutely right.  That said, basing a prediction on recruiting rankings - particularly for a "role" player (granted, a very talented one, but make no mistake, this team will go as Trey and Jr go) - just doesn't feel right.

OysterMonkey

I don't know how his numbers are derived, but his rationale seems overly dependent on recruiting rankings in valuing returning players. Smot may have been M's highest rated returning player in terms of recruiting profile, but he certainly wasn't the team's best player.

At any rate, it's interesting to see the variance in pre-season expectations.

allintime23

There's nothing harder to predict than NCAA basketball. However you position yourself at the end of the year is what really counts. I like our chances to finally make a tourney run.

Sopwith

1.  Lottery numbers

2.  Weather more than 72 hours in advance

3.  Pork belly futures

4.  Content of Clint Eastwood speeches

5.  Ingredients in McNuggets

6.  End result of Denard play-action naked boot

7.  Simultaneous position and momentum of electrons

8.  American Airlines departure times

9.  A woman's mood

10.  _________ (you tell me)

Toledo_Wolverine

The age at which we are recruiting kids to Michigan by the year 2022. 7th grade? 6th?

MGoSoftball

Solving the Happy Ending problem for arbitrary $n$.  I know how to solve the Happy Ending problem, just not for arbitrary $n$.

michchi85

However he is the first person I've read that says that missing Smotrycz will have a negative impact on this team.  I think we are a much better team without him on the floor, especially with the new guys coming in.  Not trying to knock the kid, but he can't play the 4 in the Big Ten.

Hanner's system relies too much on recruting numbers and not enough on common sense. He hardly mentiones Trey Burke and doesn't mention Glen Robinson III at all, who is Michigan's highest recruit.  He may be right that we are ranked too high, but not being a top 25 team is a complete joke.

tasnyder01

Smot was a turrible defender, but he was a great offensive asset. He could pull oposing bigs away from the paint, which opened up the offense for other guys. How many drives did TB get simply because the big was pulled away from the paint? I don't know the answer to that, but it was definately enough to get Smot 21 MPG.  If you don't believe Smot was that good, then you're implying a belief that Belein was making a mistake playing him so much. Either way, it's a trouble-ridden argument. So, I think Smot had at least some positive impact.  (for emphasis, he played almost as much as J-Mo.)

My question is honestly seeing how much MM will play. If he's a 5, he's one of 3 in the rotation (J-Mo & Horford being the others) and as such won't get much playing time. So he needs to learn to play the 4 in order to get some playing time. But this brings with it a host of other problems. First, I think Belein will use GRIII at the 4 some, if only to space the floor and out of habit of having a 4-guard system for so long. Second, MM is going to have to learn how to shoot a 15-foot shot, which he doesn't have in his arsenal right now. He HAS to stretch the defense at least a little bit, and I just don't see him doing that right now. So, his PT will be limited to around 20 MPG.

What that all leads to is an accumulation of information pointing to MM only playing as much as Smot. While he won't be the offensive boon that Smot was in terms of stretching the floor, I think he'll help enough to ofset the loss of Smot.

BK-bloo

and look forward to him being proved an idiot in march.

bacon1431

I believe losing Smotrycz hurts, but I don't think it'll hurt too much this year. Next year is when it hurts IMO. I think upperclassmen are very valuable and Burke is probably going to leave, and one or more ofTHJ, GRIII and McGary (very unlikely though) too. Having Smot as an upperclassman next year would have been huge. Granted, we've got a couple other good guys coming in for 2013 (Walton, Irvin, Donnal), but his experience and expected improvement would have helped us quite a bit.

But the guy is kind of a fool. The debate on this team is not whether they're a top 25 team, but if they're a top 10-15 team. That is where we're dependant on our recruits living up to their rankings.

State Street

As much as I like Smotrycz losing him will most likely be addition by subtraction.  He had a terrible attitude (as evidenced by his benching), was a liability on defense, missed his share of open 3s, and really lacked speed and aggressiveness.  We're replacing him with one of the best incoming freshman in the country (freshmen yes, but McGary is old for his age born in 1992).

Hard to complain with this.

bacon1431

Smot shot 43.5% from 3 last year.....hard to complain with that, it's pretty damn good especially considering the volume of 3 point shots he took. And you will never see me deny that he is limited. But he defended out of position his freshman and sophomore years because we lacked the depth down low. He had to play the 5 quite a bit because we needed him there. Not that he'd ever be a shutdown defender, but he could have developed into a serviceable defender at the 4. And if Burke and THJ leave after this year, we could be lacking in some scoring punch, which is where Smot would definitely help out. I'm not saying that Smot is a better player than some of the freshman we have coming in this year and next, but we could end up missing him next year because of his experience in the system and the conference as well as on the scoreboard. I definitely don't think that losing him is addition by subtraction. I think that's a silly statement. We do not gain anything by losing him. He probably wouldn't have started the next two years, but he could have been a great guy to have off the bench.

snarling wolverine

Smot's stats were a little misleading though.  He absolutely shot the lights out when playing out of conference, but then had a bad slump for much of the league schedule (but since he was benched, he didn't attempt as many 3's altogether).

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

I have a tough time working up much ANGAR over one guy I never heard of (out of like the whole rest of the basketball world) having a slightly lower opinion than everyone else.

Wolverine Devotee

Who gives a fuck what he thinks? What matters are the actual polls. Hell, even those are useless in basketball. All they do is present a number. The NCAA seeds are the numbers that are important.

Blue boy johnson

I'm not going to quibble over M's pre-season rating.

Regardless of how good M is overall, first or thirty-first, what is beyond debate, is M's ability to match-up with MSU and Ohio State on a physical/talent level. Adding McGary and GRIII to the mix, to go along with Burke, Hardaway and Jordan Morgan, gives M as talented a starting 5 as there is in the BIG. Throw in some bangers off the bench, (Bielfeldt and Horford), and some three point shooting off the bench, (Vogrich, Stauskas, and Levert), and M is ready to compete at a high level.

grsbmd

Man, it's really too bad Mitch McGary won't be able to play as many minutes in the post now that his recruiting rankings have dropped.

Tater

Dan who?  I don't think he's a top 25 basketball writer, either.

Buck Killer

You suck ballz. Signed 3rd grader with a mutha fuckin attitude.