October 30th, 2018 at 8:43 PM ^
Undefeated ND makes the CFP. Undefeated ND makes it even if all five power five conferences have an undefeated champion.
Notre Dame is going to the playoffs at 12-0 100%
October 30th, 2018 at 8:58 PM ^
Agree to disagree. By placing a one loss team in front of them already, the committee is suggesting that it isn't a sure thing they can't be jumped. And that's without lsu having a conference championship win. I'd also bet a one loss non conference champ bama stands to get in over them. Georgia could jump them if they win the conference as could michigan or OU. Notre Dame would have to look good the rest of the season to keep the conference champs at bay.
October 31st, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
I personally think that was done as preemptive damage control in the case of Bama losing this weekend. They know an undefeated ND is going to get in regardless, so they put LSU in front so that the SEC has an increased chance of getting two into the playoff.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^
LSU, sure. But Kentucky makes sense. They're a P5 team with 1 loss and are the 3rd lowest of those teams. Based on resume, who should go above them? OSU with their PSU win and blowout loss to Purdue? WVU with their win over no one and blowout loss to Iowa State?
Kentucky has a road win at Florida and beat Miss St. Their only loss is OT @ TAMU. 9 is very fair for them.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
Michigan should be above LSU. Our loss was a close one to an undefeated team. There’s has two losses. Our overall opponent win record is better.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:42 PM ^
Better wins > better losses, and LSU has better wins. And LSU was not blown out.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:29 PM ^
We have to blow some teams out, stop being so conservative and let Shea throw the ball deep, they intercept good luck, the D is too strong, they'll be punting quickly. We can start by getting some style points by pounding Pedstate
October 30th, 2018 at 9:37 PM ^
The innuendo is strong in you.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:21 PM ^
Win an we are in. I predict us to finish 3rd and play Clemson.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^
This is correct. ND could take spot 4 due to lack of future ranked wins and conference championship.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:22 PM ^
Just nice to see us in there. First time in two years!
October 30th, 2018 at 7:22 PM ^
this is fine. keep winning
October 30th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^
With UGA at 6 have this horrible sense of foreboding that they will jump over us even if we win because eesssss eeeeee sssseeeee
October 30th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^
No one is beating Bama. Lets get that straight. I dont understand the consternation about LSU and UGA. They will both have 2 losses at least. Clemson and Bama are locks in my book. If we win out we are in. Just win! Everyone worrying about a one loss Bama needs to watch them play. OSU will lose at least one more too. OU running the table will be the only wrench in the works but Im sure they have another dud in them.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
I firmly believe that when the clock hits 00:00 in the 4th quarter of the national title game, we will be having a debate if Bama was the greatest college football team of all time.
I know that may seem extreme, but I haven't thought we could be witnessing a GOAT status team since the Leinart/Bush USC days
October 30th, 2018 at 7:46 PM ^
I'll believe that if they smoke LSU by 21+ this weekend... until then, I'm sceptical that their schedule has made them look more impressive than they are.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:07 PM ^
I'm in the same boat, but then I think back to that USC team where ESPN was putting them in the top-10 teams of All-Time ...and then Texas happened to them. Even the best can be beaten
October 30th, 2018 at 7:27 PM ^
We have officially recovered from the Notre Dame loss.
Now just win.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
Anybody else worried that if (assuming UM wins out) LSU wins on Saturday, the Committee would leave Michigan out? I mean, would the Committee put a 1 loss, non-division winning Alabama in over a 1 loss, conference winning Michigan, based on some nebulous criteria like the “eye test” and Alabama’s loss was more impressive and conference championships are not important (see Alabama last year)?
October 30th, 2018 at 7:32 PM ^
No.
Last year they would have put a 2-loss Big Ten champ Ohio State in over non-conference, non-division winning Alabama. They only reason they did not is because OSU's Iowa loss was so bad.
A 1-loss Big Ten champ Michigan will get in over a 1-loss Alabama that did not even win its division. If Alabama is so great, how come they didn't even win their division? They lost when they were actually tested. That would be the thought process.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:42 PM ^
A 1-loss Michigan team will not get in over a 1-loss Alabama. The eye test and SEC bias will be all over that one. Everyone has predetermined that Alabama is that good. Now a 1-loss Michigan team would probably make it in over someone else in that case after it all plays out.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:33 PM ^
No. Can we please stop with this. A 12-1 Michigan conference champ is in and in comfortably like number 2. Clemson sos is ass and ND will lose one game.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^
I know, right? We've been discussing this since last December.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
The committee LOVES the ACC -- Syracuse 19, NC State 21, BC 22, Virginia 25. All these teams are in the 30s or lower in the S&P (i.e. roughly equivalent to MSU).
October 30th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
Noticed that too - don't really get it. They're not that great.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:36 PM ^
If teams are really overrated in the 15-25 range in a group like that, they tend to lose to an average team here and there and drop as a group. This ACC crop is a week or two behind a similar big ten situation , and that one followed a similar SEC situation.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:33 PM ^
Win and proceed to the next week.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^
Pretty much according to script. Real question is what happens in Baton Rouge on Sat. Mich does lots of tcb on Sat, then things get really interesting.
Bama rolls the Tigers, M moves to 4. LSU wins, chaos ensues.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:42 PM ^
Yea, I think we want Bama to absolutely destroy LSU. Give them their second loss and hope ND trips up before the end of the season.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:46 PM ^
Doesn’t matter if ND loses, unless they do it twice. They beat us so they’ll stay above us.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:57 PM ^
I don't think so. The committee has looked past head-to-head results before.
A 1-loss ND will lose late in the season and have no CCG or future good wins to hang its hat on.
Their trajectory will be heading in the wrong direction versus Michigan.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
I understand your logic, but an one loss Notre Dame won't necessarily stay ahead of Michigan. This was talked about by Herbie and some of the guys on one of the GameDay shows.
It's all about which team the selection committee feels is better at that time, along with strength of schedule.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:13 PM ^
Will not happen. Michigan has a top 10 SOS and ND is in the 30s. It was a 7 point win at home-first game of the year. Michigan out-gained them...
October 31st, 2018 at 6:53 PM ^
Head to head is not nearly as strong as you make it out to be. This isn't like a Big Ten Championship division rule where ties go to head-to-head winners. That's a round robin tournament, so it makes sense to break the tie that way. But playoff selection is based on a wide variety of factors. I'm sure in some way they will take head-to-head into account, but there are so many other factors (timing/situation of the loss being week 1 on the road at night by just 7 points, strength of schedule, the "eye test", playing and winning an extra game against a decent opponent) that very clearly would favor Michigan.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^
That. sir, it correct. Northwestern needs to do its B1G civic duty.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:36 PM ^
So I noticed Herbstreit said he had the top six “exactly” like what the committee had. BS! If you look at his helmets behind him he had ND in the third spot. Now they come back from break and he moved ND to the four and LSU to the third on the shelf. Anybody else notice? He’s full of it
October 30th, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^
I think his six helmets are arranged by the top six in the AP poll. They've changed from time to time and seem to align with that. What surprised me is that he even has a Michigan helmet.
Wonder if he'll change which poll he goes by for the next remote feed.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
There is a 0% Chance a conference champ Michigan on an 11 game win streak would be dropped from top 4 in favor of a one loss non conference champion Alabama with less ranked wins than UM.
absolutely NO chance.
if Michigan wins out, they will either be the 2 or 3 seed.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:39 PM ^
"Dropped from the top 4" implies they'd get into the top 4. If Bama loses to LSU, there's a chance Bama still stays in the top 4.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^
But why?
Unless it's overtime, Alabama will have failed its only true test when it mattered. So what if they "looked good" up until then against average teams?
At what point are you just rewarding them for last year? You already did that last year.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:59 PM ^
Yes, they did it last year. Exactly why they will do it again. And I agree with you. They shouldn’t get in with a loss.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^
Bama could lose by 40 and not drop lower than 2.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:25 PM ^
Exactly and this is why the committee has LSU at #3 right now-gives them the wiggle room to only drop Alabama to #4. It is just the way it is...I do not like it but the more objective view likely agrees with the committee. My guess is that the committee is taking this tack because...ah well...they should drop them to five and put Michigan at #4 but forcing Michigan to win out all the way to retain the position...that would be a fair position to take. But if Michigan wins out in convincing style the committee will have some splainin to do to keep them out.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:24 PM ^
Yes, let's say it is a barn-burner and both teams play great but LSU beats Bama in OT by a FG? The committee is going to move Clemson to #1, LSU #2, ND #3 and Bama #4. Sorry, but the committee is in love with Bama and the SEC. But what if UGA then beats LSU in the SEC title game? That would be quite the shituation.
At the end of the day, conference title is just a tie breaker. So in that case we might sneak ahead of Bama, but only in that case. Otherwise if LSU beats UGA again in the SEC title game, Bama would be the #4 seed. ND's schedule is not strong enough to jump a 1-loss UM ahead of a 1-loss Bama. Again, conference title means virtually nothing to the CFP committee.
All of this argues for the 8-team playoffs if conference title games are just tie-breakers. So dump the conference title games and replace them with first round of the 8-team playoff in same day / time slots at neutral NFL venues with domes.
Based on the current CFP ranking the first round of an 8-team playoff would look like:
- #1 Bama vs. #8 WSU
- #2 Clemson vs. #7 Oklahoma
- #3 LSU vs. #6 Georgia
- #4 ND vs. #5 Michigan
Way better matchups and bigger money than the dorky conference title games.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:40 PM ^
Would you bet the farm on that?
October 30th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
Yes I’d bet up to 100,000 dollars that if UM wins out and Bama loses and does not win their conference - that UM is in.
Quality Wins - UM
#1 defense - UM
Novelty of 1st CFP for Fan bass - UM
Conference champ - UM
win streak - UM (12)
.....
October 30th, 2018 at 7:42 PM ^
We actually want ND to keep winning. The committee has a fetish for a "good" loss.
The ND loss is a "very good" loss - against an undefeated team, on the road, at night, first game of the season when everybody else was playing cupcakes.
The committee will want to reward that as often as possible.
If we win out and ND is our only loss, and ND is undefeated, no 1-loss team will jump us, not even Alabama.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
Okay, so there's an ad in your post for a coffin, customizable with your favroite school's logo and colors.
I guess WD can die a happy man now.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:29 PM ^
Is it a Jordan brand coffin? How well does the maize match to the true maize color? Asking for a friend.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:29 PM ^
Nope.