Michigan 5th in initial CFP poll

Submitted by Bambi on October 30th, 2018 at 7:17 PM

1 Bama

2 Clemson

3 LSU

4 ND

5 Michigan

6 Georgia

7 OU

10 OSU

Comments

TrueBlue2003

October 30th, 2018 at 10:49 PM ^

I think you meant losing to ND had no benefit for us in the polls. Which, like, duh.

There were a ton of benefits from playing ND.

1) First and foremost, the players got to play a big time game and the fans got to watch a big time game on Labor Day weekend.  Coaches, players, (rational) fans, everyone involved with a program would rather play big time games in iconic stadiums than play some no name school.

2) One could argue that exposed our weaknesses early in essentially a no lose situation and likely got Warriner more involved in the run game so he could install the arc block read option and other plays that have helped us handily beat the last two opponents in big games.

Well worth it to play that game, give ourselves a chance to notch a big win, with little downside to losing. 

ESNY

October 30th, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^

Considering that they are undefeated, playing at ND was a no lose scenarios.  Win and it’s a huge win, lose and you sort of get a pass.  Beating a shitty SEC team would’ve been at best a push vs losing on the road to an undefeated ND in the opening game of the season 

SMart WolveFan

October 31st, 2018 at 9:28 AM ^

Not to mention, that loss put UofM in the revenge mindset rather than the "don't lose your undefeatedness" stress zone. And than there's the fact that no team has won the CFP undefeated.

Matter of fact if UofM was still undefeated right now, I think they would have a hard time winning all of the last 4. I strangely feel much better about having that loss already and about being ranked 5th right now, as opposed to undefeated and #2.

ak47

October 31st, 2018 at 5:08 AM ^

This is such a short sighted view point because we lost. If we had beaten Nd but lost to say northwestern that Nd win would be the reason we would get in over a loss Oklahoma for example. Hell even with a loss the boost to the strength of schedule might be the difference.

yes it’s better to play Akron instead and go undefeated but if you do schedule Akron instead you better go undefeated or else you get ranked like Washington state did without much chance at the playoffs

ijohnb

October 30th, 2018 at 8:03 PM ^

If Bama wins.  If LSU wins, it will be 1. LSU, 2. Clemson 3. ND, 4. Bama.  By putting a one loss LSU in front of ND, that is now a “better loss” than ND.  I’m telling you, the Committee is loving themselves some SEC.  They will not be adverse to two SEC teams.  With this initial ranking, we are huge NW fans this weekend.  Need ND out of that mix.

Chaco

October 30th, 2018 at 8:25 PM ^

I think this is right - we need undefeated Alabama (2 loss LSU and 2 loss UGA from SEC title game) and of course we need to get through our gauntlet with no additional losses.  Absent that two 1-loss SEC teams will be a possibility  I also think they rated OSU lower with the hopes that we lose to them and they can shaft a B1G champion.  Plus they lost to Purdue by 29 - so there's that....

Arb lover

October 30th, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^

Assuming arguendo that one loss Alabama knows it will still get in the CFP... and that Alabama knows it can beat Georgia but is not sure if it can beat Michigan... wouldn't its best bet (again assuming the boys club), to lose a close game to Georgia in the SEC championship on purpose in order to keep us out?

I don't suggest this as an eventuality, but merely a likely outcome of what you suggest and what I don't believe is likely. Yes it might be possible for 2 sec teams to make it in, but it will all depend on what the other teams Pac-12, Big-12 and B1G do. If we get rocked by Illinois but beat OSU and win the B1G we aren't getting in, and yeah, maybe 2 SEC teams get in, but this 2 sec teams thing has been discussed ad nauseam. 

Chaco

October 30th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^

I think Alabama is programmed to steamroll whoever and they wouldn't give a second thought to losing any game to help a fellow SEC team make it in.  If the roles were reversed would a hypothetically undefeated Michigan lose to a 1-loss Wisconsin to help 2 B1G teams make it?

mGrowOld

October 30th, 2018 at 9:00 PM ^

That's what ive been saying all along.  The doomsday scenario for us is a LSU win this Saturday and then both LSU and Alabama win out.  In that reality i think we're outside looking in unless Clemson or ND falter.

Whoever said it is absolutely right.  The committee set this up to TRY and get two SEC teams in if things break right for them.

markinmsp

October 30th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^

 Actually, not sure if we really benefit with a one loss ND either.
 In the breakdown by committee chairman head/head match-ups were a significant factor deciding between teams. Just prior to common opponents.
 I fear we may be on the outside if they have to decide between us and a one loss ND.

DCGrad

October 30th, 2018 at 10:12 PM ^

Through the first 9 games opponent winning percentages are as follows:

1. LSU - 68%

2. UM - 62%

3. UGa - 61%

4. Clemson - 57%

5. ND - 52%

6. Bama - 49%

That might help explain why LSU is ahead of ND.  There's a real chance that outside of UM, the only other 9-win team ND beats is Syracuse with Stanford being an outside shot.  There's a chance the rest of ND's schedule doesn't make a bowl.  11-1 ND shouldn't be in the playoff.

Michigan4Life

October 31st, 2018 at 12:28 AM ^

What if the two best teams in the country are in the same conference? That's why there's a possibility of two teams from the same conference for the playoff. It doesn't have to be 4 teams from different conference.

What if OSU and Michigan are undefeated and one lose in a close game (say 3 pt or less) the other win the B1G Title game and the rest of the schools already has 2 losses. Are you really going to leave one out because of that can't have two teams from the same conference rhetoric?

The committee are consistent with having the 4 best teams, not the 4 most deserving teams as part of their rankings.

M_Born M_Believer

October 31st, 2018 at 3:05 AM ^

I do think that a loss to LSU would be more damaging Bama cause they will not will their division, play in the SEC championship game and obviously not be a league champ.

To me, the more dangerous scenario is for Bama to go undefeated and lose a close game to Georgia (or Kentucky.....WOW thats a crazy thought) in the SEC title game.

You can't assume that LSU would win out.  How about this scenario, LSU wins this weekend but loses to Georgia in the SEC title game.  There is no way the committee could justify taking Bama over a team they lost to (LSU) nor a conference champion (1 loss Michigan / Georgia / Oklahoma / WSU).  And the same thing can be said for a 2 loss LSU.

Lots of crazy possibilities left to play out.  Most importantly, Michigan needs to take care of their own business first.  Win out and see what happens from there......

Gucci Mane

October 30th, 2018 at 8:41 PM ^

lol y’all trippin. The committee is just a bunch of people who have that job for no good reason. They have power simply because they do. Calm down with your conspiracies. If Uofm wins out they have a 95% chance to be in and if Uofm loses another game that chance is around 5%. 

Pit2047

October 30th, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^

There is no possible way the committee is going to put a 1 loss Alabama in who didn’t even win its own division over any 1 loss Conference Champ. If we win out we’re in. Our only competition right now is Oklahoma and I don’t think they can pass us with that they have left on their schedule, especially if we beat a 10-2 Iowa in Indianapolis. Last year OSU and USC had two losses, it doesn’t look like that’s going to be the case this year. I don’t know why people make this so complicated.