FrankMurphy

November 2nd, 2016 at 3:27 PM ^

I will not consider this season to be a success unless we beat Ohio State. To be totally honest, a national championship with a loss to OSU (which is a distinct possibility, if OSU loses to Nebraska this weekend) would be deeply unsatisfying. I would go far as to say that I prefer a win over OSU in Columbus and a loss in the CFP to a loss to OSU and two wins in the CFP. 

HenneGivenSunday

November 2nd, 2016 at 8:23 AM ^

I think they were trying to make up for their epic fail in calculating Trump's chances of winning the primary. I remember hearing on NPR that they gave him like some crazy low chance to win. Their rationale was that we haven't had many candidates like Trump. So, overreaction to a prediction that was quite off?

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ScruffyTheJanitor

November 2nd, 2016 at 8:27 AM ^

They use two different predictions: the "Polls-Only"  model and the "Polls-Plus" model, which is adjusted based on a few factors-- one of which is opinion. Silver himself has said that the Poll-Only model nailed Trump's nomination. Basically, he messed with his own numbers and thats why he was wrong.

The big mistake is a curious one for a website that focuses on statistics. Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses. In other words, we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things.

I also think the polling community was taken in by the book The Party Decides and most of them assumed that the Republicans wanted nothing to do with Trump. This is why alot of them ignored their numbers and said "Trump has no shot."