MichFan1997

October 30th, 2011 at 10:30 PM ^

the same raw yardage numbers, Nebraska's defense has allowed 8 more touchdown's than Michigan's defense. That many more touchdowns is also despite Nebraska enjoying a much better field position advantage (19th nationally compared to Michigan's 71st). Our offense is rated 15th nationally by FEI, Nebraska's is 49th. Michigan rushes for 5.9 yards per play without removing sacks. Nebraska is at 5.2, so talking about their amazing rushing attack being like a 2nd defense...well no more than Michigan's. The raw numbers suggest similar defense (5.4 yards allowed per play by M, 5.1 by N), but Michigan has forced 20 turnovers while Nebraska has forced only 11. Their defense is no better than ours, and neither is their team.

turtleboy

October 30th, 2011 at 10:17 PM ^

We're not where we should be yet but everybody knows KState will be 7-4 in 3 weeks. South Carolina over Nebraska is pretty lame as well. Their habit of scoring 3 times or  less and barely escaping against unranked opponents somehow overrode Nebraskas total domination of sparty immediately following sparties back to back wins over ranked opponents. Penn State doesn't look great, especially after the turnover marathon that was the sleet-bowl, but they look a LOT better than VaTech to me, and so does the quality of their opponents. I suppose Houston and Boise deserve some credit for failing to lose against Tulane and Rice and East Carolina, but the fact  that Houston allows those tiny schools to score 30 and 40 points on them more often than not makes their #13 ranking "questionable."

On a side note: just because Auburn and Georgia beat Florida doesn't mean they should get ranked. Everybody beats Florida these days.

justingoblue

October 30th, 2011 at 9:51 PM ^

I don't think it'll happen after two weeks, but every team ranked ahead of us (with the exception of Boise and one other [I think Clemson] has to play another team rated ahead of us. If we win out we should be securely in the top ten.

justingoblue

October 30th, 2011 at 10:14 PM ^

Yep, and we need to capitalize on their losses and the open rankings because of them. As it stands now, our optimistic expectations should be ten wins with either a BTCG appearance or a BCS at-large bid. Nebraska and OSU are legit teams, but Iowa and Illinois don't look so good. We should expect no less than 3/4 remaining games to go down in the win column, IMO.

This is one of the weakest years I can recall in college football, and the Big Ten in particular.

joeyb

October 30th, 2011 at 10:25 PM ^

#14 KSU @ #3 OSU

#12 VaTech @ #23 GaTech

#10 Nebraska @ #16 PSU

#9 SCAR @ #7 Arkansas

#8 Oregon @ Washington

#8 Oregon @ #4 Stanford

#6 Oklahoma vs. TAMU

 

There are a lot of 1-loss teams that play very tough games in the next 2 weeks. I'm not sure that we'll be top 10 in 2 weeks, but if we have two comfortable wins on the road the next 2 weeks, I don't see why we can't be 11-13. You are probably looking at KSU, SCAR/Arkansas, and Oregon losing with the posibility of Nebraska and VaTech. However, if Nebraska loses, PSU will jump us. That probably leaves us at 11 or 12.

It would be kind of cool to have the first meeting of Michigan and Nebraska as a B1G game be between two top 10 teams.

JT4104

October 30th, 2011 at 9:50 PM ^

I dont want to knock any teams..but wow, can someone actually explain to me how PSU is a 1 loss team? I mean their offense is currently below Michigan 2008 levels and that is scary.

Must be one hell of a defense they have or just a real soft part of the schedule.

tdcarl

October 30th, 2011 at 9:53 PM ^

Right now its looking like a combination of the two. Other than Alabama their next best opponents have been Northwestern and Illinois who aren't exactly great this year. However, PSU's scoring D is ranked 4th, so they appear to be somewhat legit there despite their weak schedule helping that stat a bit.

justingoblue

October 30th, 2011 at 10:06 PM ^

It's both. The do have a top ten total defense (282ypg) and a top five scoring defense (12ppg). This is paired with an 88th ranked total offense (357ypg) and a 101st ranked scoring offense (22ppg).

Their schedule so far (by FEI) has included FCS Indiana State, Alabama (2), Temple (32), EMU (111), Indiana (97), Iowa (39), Purdue (69), Northwestern (63), Illinois (35). Against a fairly weak schedule, they have the above offensive rankings. We'll see how good they are this month when they play Nebraska (37), MSU (5) and Wisconsin (9).

Edit: 2010 M offense with 2011 PSU defense would be a legit BCS title contender, 2010 M defense with 2011 PSU offense would be praying for a win against Minnesota.

DaBigDaddy

October 30th, 2011 at 10:22 PM ^

All it matters is we need MSU to lose ONE more game to give us a chance for the Championship game. Plus, we're not guaranteed to win the rest too. So, I don't see Spartans upset or anything at the moment.

Tony Soprano

October 30th, 2011 at 10:25 PM ^

Shouldn't Stanford have been penalized for having to go to overtime to beat USC?  Going to overtime is like half a loss (using Les Miles' argument back in '06, counting LSU's overtime loss as half a win), is it?

ForeverVoyaging

October 30th, 2011 at 10:40 PM ^

Well, USC just looked pretty legit after smashing ND, and there is a lot of bad blood between the two teams - I can see the close score not hurting so much.

Overall, I'll be pretty happy if we win against Iowa and/or Illinois, finish with 8-9 wins, and at least stay competative against OSU. I just realized that we only scored SEVEN points in our last derp-fest against them.

Look Up_See Blue

October 30th, 2011 at 10:52 PM ^

If we win out we're a lock for a BCS bowl in my opinion.  And depending on what happens with some of the other B1G teams, even if we go 10-2 there could be a slim chance we sneak in somewhere as an at-large as well.

markjko.rn

October 30th, 2011 at 11:06 PM ^

I need both MI and MSU to win out, just so MSU can go the the Big Ten Championship game and lose. This would place MI in a BCS game and sparty would be looking in from the outside.

Edit: And this is apparently "off-topic" b/c you struggle with reading comprehension. Good stuff, bro!

markjko.rn

October 30th, 2011 at 11:30 PM ^

Sparty has a past history of being unable to consistently win big games. PSU has not played anyone at this point in the big ten making their record somewhat misleading. They have Neb, OSU, and WI(in Madison) remaining on their schedule. Penn State maybe wins one of those games but could very well lose all three. WI should win out with their remaining schedule of MN, ILL, and PSU. This would place them in a double jeopardy matchup vs Sparty(if they win out). I do not see MSU beating(getting lucky on a hail mary) WI twice in one year.