East German Judge

November 10th, 2015 at 7:29 PM ^

I know that this is getting way ahed of ourselves and that there is no crying over spilled whole milk, but as it stands now if OSU or Iowa wins out they will definitely be one of the 4 in the CFP.  If staee loses one more and we win out, I really wonder whether the selection committee will let a 2 loss Michigan team into the CFP (please, please, please!!!) as opposed to a 1 loss ND, Big 12 or Pac 12 team.

Tater

November 10th, 2015 at 7:34 PM ^

If a two-loss Michigan team wins the Big Ten, which I really hope happens, it still probably won't be enough to unseat a bunch of one-loss or undefeated teams.  It would make it really easy for the "committee" to pick their four champions this year.  

That being said, a Rose Bowl victory would be a very nice way to end the season.

Jonesy

November 10th, 2015 at 8:29 PM ^

X-2 Michigan isnt leaping an X-1 SEC, big 12, pac 12, notre dame, or even Clemson if they lose one.  We'd need lots of other teams to lose for an X-2 big champ us to make the playoffs.

mclub

November 10th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^

What about 1 loss teams that don't win their conference?  That would be interesting.  I mean Michigan could potentially knock Iowa, OSU out.  We are only talking 7/8 spots over 4 weeks.  They need some help but a lot of these teams still have tough games ahead and against each other.

 

Two loss teams are going to be making playoffs on a semi regular basis.  I made a post on a different thread.  Under the BCS, it woud have been 4/5 teams a decade.   

UMxWolverines

November 10th, 2015 at 8:52 PM ^

We finished the season 10-2 in 2003 and were #4 going into the Rose Bowl. It's not as crazy as people think. And hell that was the year that Oklahoma got blasted by Kansas State 35-7 in the Big XII championship and still managed to stay #1 in the BCS...in reality we probably should have been #3. 

Muttley

November 11th, 2015 at 1:48 AM ^

would Michigan have suffered if they played

 

  • Baylor's OOC sched? Almost surely 0.
  • TCU's    OOC sched? Almost surely 0.
  • OkSt's    OOC sched? Almost surely 0.
  • LSU's    OOC sched? Almost surely 0.

We're already above one-loss TCU.  And we may be finishing w/ games against a Top 3 OSU and a Top ~6 Iowa.  And it's possible that our losses may be to a playoff team (Utah) and a 10ish MSU.  By a 1-in-500 fluke.

There isn't any justification this year to send more than one team per league.  Which means that we would only need to beat the leader from only two of the other five swimming lanes (Power 5 + ND - B1G).  Look at all the certain and possible losses that may follow:

 

• ND (plus another OOC games)
    • #4   ND 8-1 @ # 7 Stanf 8-1 11/28
    • #11 Fla 8-1 v #16 FSU 7-2 11/28

• B12
    • #6  Baylor 8-0 v  #12 Okla 8-1 11/14
    • #6  Baylor 8-0 @ #  8 OkSt 9-0 11/21
    • #6  Baylor 8-0 @ #15 TCU 8-1 11/27
    • #6  Baylor 8-0 v         Tex  4-5 12/05
    • #8   OkSt 9-0   v  #12 Okla 8-1 11/28
    • #15 TCU  8-1  @ #12 Okla 8-1 11/21

SEC  
    • #2 Bama 8-1 @ #17  MsSt 7-2    11/14
    • #2 Bama 8-1 @         Aub 5-4     11/28
    • #9 LSU    7-1 v          Bert 5-4    11/14
    • #9 LSU    7-1 @         OleMS 7-3 11/21
    • #9 LSU    7-1 v          TAMU 6-3   11/28
    • CCG SEC West v #11 Fla 8-1     12/05

PAC12
    • #10 Utah 8-1 v #19 UCLA 7-2 11/21
    • CCG #11 Stan 8-1 v PAC12 North 12/05

ACC
    • CCG #1 Clem 9-0 v ACC Coastal 12/05

We'll be Champions

November 10th, 2015 at 7:36 PM ^

I think it depends on which 1 loss Big 12 team it is. TCU, OSU, and Baylor probably not because they would have had to lose way later then a team like Oklahoma who would theoretically end the season with three straight wins against very strong opponents. I think that might give them the edge over UM. For the Pac 12, Stanford most likely or definently would get in ahead of us, and same goes for Utah, so we need them to lose again. For Notre Dame, I do not see how the committee could put Michigan in over them because ND SOS is strong and the committe values that so much. 

UMForLife

November 10th, 2015 at 7:43 PM ^

I don't know about ND's SOS being stronger than M. If M wins out, they would have beaten OSU, NU, IOWA -- All ranked at the end of the year. ND would have one win against a ranked team - Temple. I say they should not be in the top 4 right now. If they beat Stanford, then they would have two wins against ranked teams. Michigan would have three. So, I am not sure why there is so much love for ND. And of course, HELL with ND.

ak47

November 11th, 2015 at 9:46 AM ^

They will get jumped by Baylor or oklahoma state if either of those teams wins out.  While it would be hilarious for msu to lose to psu we still need osu to win that game if we want any shot of making the playoffs.  Having osu and iowa be back to back top 5 wins is a lot better than a top 10-15 win and a top 5 win over an iowa team people don't actually think is good.

Wolverine Devotee

November 10th, 2015 at 7:31 PM ^

plays no one and is a joke.

Their one quality win is over Wisconsin. A team that also does not play Michigan, OSU, PSU or MSU.

Yeah, geographic divisions were a great idea. 

WolvinLA2

November 10th, 2015 at 7:40 PM ^

They were a great idea.  Doing it any other way can still result in seasons like this.  The bigger problem is having 14 teams where you barely play the teams in the other division.  The Pac-12 has no problem with geographic divisions because they play 9 conference games and only have 12 teams so you play 9 or 11 other teams every year, meaning you only miss 2, so you can never miss the 3 best teams.  

Our problem was adding Maryland and Rutgers.  And it's a rare problem that traditionally good teams like Wisconsin and Nebraska are both not all that great.  The last few years these divisoins would look pretty balanced, and will again.  

15 years ago, the SEC East was way better than the West because Florida and Tennessee were the powers in the conference.  Then it shifted and the West was way better, now it's maybe balancing back out again (our would be had Georgia not laid an egg).  

Point is, you can't choose divisions just based on who is good now, because that stuff goes in waves.