LSAClassOf2000

March 25th, 2013 at 3:46 PM ^

The Sagarin Ratings bear this out somewhat as well. Kansas will be the first team in the Tournament that we face which would have a Sagarin Rating higher than ours, albeit not by much.  

Right now, our rating is 90.28, which is 8th in Division I, and our opponents to date had ratings of 77.56 (SDSU, good for 98th on the list) and 86.17 (VCU, good for 20th on the list), so we had the edge clearly by those numbers anyway. As there is only about 9 points of separation between 1st and 20th, any game between any two teams in that block will be interesting. It so happened that VCU played right into the things Michigan does best, as others have said. 

Kansas is 6th with a rating of 91.49, so by this algorithm, this game is a tossup of sorts, with a slight edge to Kansas. If we survive to the Elite Eight, we face either the team with the 2nd highest rating (Florida, although it has been noted that Sagarin's algorithm may overrate Florida some because it is sensitive blowouts) and FGCU (86th on the list). 

Tater

March 25th, 2013 at 4:25 PM ^

When you are one of the top four seeds, the matchups are supposed to favor you in the first week.  That is a reward for playing well during the regular season.  It is turning out that the Big Ten is every bit as good of a conference as the media thought they were.  The only team that had an embarrassing loss was Wiscy; everyone else represented the conference quite well.

 

Soulfire21

March 25th, 2013 at 2:44 PM ^

While nice, it really is meaningless.  It'd be interesting if the NCAA did do a re-seeding process for the Sweet 16 officially, but yes, fluff from ESPN.

We got two very favorable matchups for us, the difficulty increases exponentially from hereon out. We've got to beat Kansas.

2014

March 25th, 2013 at 2:50 PM ^

It feels like most people are writing off VCU after the fact, but they were a scary matchup before the game. We played a heck of a game, it was far from a gimme.

Soulfire21

March 25th, 2013 at 3:03 PM ^

My opinion is that people who picked VCU over Michigan thought "VCU went to the Final Four in 2011, so, they will probably beat Michigan".

I picked Michigan by double digits (yes, tooting my own horn right now, don't mean to sound arrogant) because I knew VCU's style of play 'forced' Michigan into our strengths on the court, namely, we played an up-tempo transition-style offense, which is where we've been most effective this season.  If VCU would've called off the press and switched to a halfcourt defense, the game probably would've been closer.  I'm not sure if all of this makes VCU a decent team that a better Michigan team defeated, or if VCU really wasn't that good.

I'd say the only team who has looked more dominant than Michigan through 2 games is Louisville, so the re-seeding article does sound about right.  Kansas, Indiana, Ohio State, etc. have all had underwhelming performances, Michigan has not.

Muttley

March 25th, 2013 at 3:29 PM ^

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/vcu-and-turnovers-how-beat-rams#comment-197…

OK, so we only won by 25, but it seemed obvious that what VCU preys on is Michigan's strength (in the form of future NBA players, no less).

It would be interesting to see VCU tear into Wisconsin's Ugly Ball.  I bet they'd win at least one of two versus the BadCagers.

saveferris

March 25th, 2013 at 4:10 PM ^

but they were a scary matchup before the game.

Why? Because their YouTube Havoc video, set to Drowning Pool, had them making the likes of James Madison and Temple look bad? What I took away from it was that Havoc looks good against some mid-majors, but let's see what happens against an athletic team full of ball-handlers.

Soulfire21

March 25th, 2013 at 3:10 PM ^

I like how he says in his first prediction that Kansas won't make it to Atlanta, then in his second prediction (that the Big Ten title dought will continue) he uses Kansas' strength as an argument for why the Big Ten won't win the title this year.

About Michigan's "rough opening weekend" he projected:

Michigan won’t reach the Sweet 16 -- What a daunting path for the Wolverines. They open the NCAA tournament with a matchup against a dangerous South Dakota State squad that’s led by NBA prospect Nate Wolters. And then they have to go against a VCU team (assuming the Rams beat Akron) that forces turnovers on 28.7 percent of its opponents’ possessions (first in the nation, per Pomeroy). That’s a rough path for the Wolverines. Trey Burke is a very talented athlete. And he’s surrounded by young standouts. But that Michigan defense has been a concern all season. It’s going to be magnified as the Wolverines struggle in the opening weekend.

StephenRKass

March 25th, 2013 at 3:26 PM ^

I typically roll my eyes when I hear coaches say you need to ignore the media. However, I have to agree with that this time around.

  • I never thought Michigan was a prime candidate for an upset in the first weekend.
  • Conversely, I don't know that I would see Michigan being favored against Kansas, and should we beat them, against Florida.

Some of the best advice I received from a grizzled and experienced veteran when I entered my career applies well here. "Don't get too excited and happy when things go well, and don't get too down when things go poorly." Michigan is a good team, a very good team. They are neither "great," nor are they a bunch of bums. However, like virtually everyone in the field, they need some luck to pull it off. The following needs to happen:

  • Michigan needs to play very well, especially their bigs;
  • Their opponents need to play poorly;
  • The refs need to keep us from getting mugged;
  • We need the next ball sitting on the rim to fall in the basket, not out, as it did versus Indiana. In other words, we need a bit of luck.

If all these things happen, we'll be in the Final Four. In the Final Four, I don't know how it would go, because of the familiarity Ohio, Indiana, and MSU have with Michigan.

MGoRossGrad

March 25th, 2013 at 4:20 PM ^

I can't remember where I was just reading this, but it's easy to say that whatever storyline your team has at the moment will be the direction that the media and analysts will push you in.

Michigan misstepped in conference down the stretch? SDSU will clearly win! (Forget rational defensive matchup numbers and common sense)

Wisconsin beat Indiana in the B1G Tournament? Elite 8! (Aside from the fact that they were inconsistent at best, mind-numbingly boring at worst, and just got blown out by State)

Gonzaga hasn't lost in conference? National championship! (Aside from the fact that the WCC barely squeaked two teams into the tournament)

You can see how easily the tide turns. All of a sudden Michigan locks up a nice win and it's all pouring back on. ESPN is running stories where they say that the Zags loss is the worst loss in program history. There are actually a decent number of people who are confidently picking FGCU over Florida. I cannot tell you how many people are saying that Kansas "sucks" because of their game against Western Kentucky.

You're right, it's crazy the heaps of praise/criticism that jumps out of the woodwork in a single tournament game. 

MGoCombs

March 25th, 2013 at 3:56 PM ^

Every other Michigan fan probably thought the same, but I knew this would happen if Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. They were everyone's favorite upset pick. They made it by two relatively weak teams (by tourney standards) and now all of a sudden they're media darlings again. Not that I really care, but I feel like we all could have seen this coming from a mile away.

JohnnyV123

March 25th, 2013 at 4:39 PM ^

We have looked strong in two games so I get the reseeding but I'd rather stay under the radar. I think people are getting  a tad overexcited about winning two straight games where we were favored to win.

Wasn't it like a week ago where 80% of people on here said that if Michigan doesn't make the Elite 8 or better that it would be a disappointment of a season??

m goblue

March 25th, 2013 at 5:59 PM ^

All 4 remaining big 10 teams in the top 6.  Would be pretty cool to see a big ten final four with Michigan coming out on top.

edit: oops dude above me beat me to it. 

Muttley

March 25th, 2013 at 9:30 PM ^

Also, in the NIT, Iowa has the highest KenPom ranking of the remaining teams.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket/_/id/145/…

http://kenpom.com/

Quarterfinalists

Rank Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck Pyth OppO OppD Pyth
22 Iowa B10 23-12 .8843 109.0 49 89.4 19 67.5 100 -.044 285 .6617 53 104.2 55 97.6 56 .3269 323
26 Virginia ACC 23-11 .8770 107.3 68 88.6 13 60.8 329 -.062 311 .5787 109 101.7 128 98.6 89 .3231 327
39 Baylor B12 20-14 .8507 112.9 24 95.3 77 68.0 79 -.109 338 .6534 61 104.1 62 97.9 64 .5275 155
48 Maryland ACC 24-12 .8221 106.6 76 91.8 35 67.6 96 -.041 277 .5923 101 103.8 76 100.1 117 .2804 343
53 Alabama SEC 23-12 .8094 103.0 134 89.4 20 61.6 319 +.017 141 .6479 73 104.1 64 98.1 70 .5327 149
64 Providence BE 18-14 .7693 106.2 83 94.4 61 66.3 156 -.029 253 .6673 49 103.4 91 96.6 29 .3725 302

 

Octofinalists Playing Tonight

Rank Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck Pyth OppO OppD Pyth
59 Southern Mississippi CUSA 26-9 .7910 110.5 35 97.0 100 64.9 217 +.024 123 .5379 121 101.6 132 100.1 119 .5458 128
68 Brigham Young WCC 22-11 .7545 107.4 65 96.2 89 71.6 7 -.006 200 .5681 115 103.8 78 101.0 150 .5330 148
87 Louisiana Tech WAC 27-6 .6947 100.3 177 92.6 43 70.3 21 +.088 11 .4210 221 99.8 203 102.9 244 .3947 294
109 Mercer ASun 24-11 .6413 103.0 133 97.3 105 62.4 302 +.028 108 .3745 274 98.4 268 103.4 271 .5747 103

 

 

Mr. Yost

March 25th, 2013 at 7:01 PM ^

I wouldn't put us as a 4-seed in a "re-rank" but #2 overall is ridiculous.

I'll get negged, I know, but if we're honest. We're a high 2-seed right now. Louisville, Indiana, Duke, Kansas, Miami, Florida would still be ahead of us.

I'm not saying we're not better. But you have to earn that type of praise. We've won 2 games, one in impressive fashion.

Muttley

March 25th, 2013 at 9:50 PM ^

I'll simplify it a bit

1. Louisville & Indiana

3. Duke, MSU, Michigan, Florida, Kansas, Miami, OSU, Syracuse

11. Oregon (two quality wins, was tempted to bump them up a group)

12. Arizona, Witchita State

14. Marquette (staggering), Florida Gulf Coast

16. Lasalle

Muttley

March 26th, 2013 at 1:15 AM ^

Projected NBA draftees from teams in the Sweet Sixteen

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/prospect-rankings

 

 

Goodman's 2013 NBA Draft Prospect Rankings
Rank Player School Year POS HGT WGT
1 Ben McLemore Kansas Fr. SG 6-5 195
5 Cody Zeller Indiana Soph. C 7-0 240
6 Trey Burke Michigan Soph. PG 6-0 190
10 Victor Oladipo Indiana Jr. SG 6-4 210
13 Michael Carter-Williams Syracuse Soph. PG 6-6 185
17 Mason Plumlee Duke Sr. PF 6-10 235
21 Rasheed Sulaimon Duke Fr. SG 6-4 185
23 Glenn Robinson III Michigan Fr. SF 6-7 210
28 Gorgiu Dieng Louisville Jr. C 6-11 245
30 Jeff Withey Kansas Sr. C 7-0 235
32 Deshaun Thomas Ohio State Jr. SF/PF 6-7 215
33 Gary Harris Michigan State Fr. SG 6-4 205
37 Adreian Payne Michigan State Jr. PF 6-10 230
44 Shane Larkin Miami Soph. PG 6-0 180
46 Jerami Grant Syracuse Fr. PF 6-8 220
49 Tim Hardaway Jr. Michigan Jr. SG 6-6 205
56 Patric Young Florida Jr. PF/C 6-9 249
59 Erik Murphy Florida Sr. PF 6-10 238
68 Branden Dawson Michigan State Soph. SF 6-6 220
69 Nik Stauskas Michigan Fr. SG 6-6 185
73 Rakeem Christmas Syracuse Soph. C 6-9 240
82 Russ Smith Louisville Jr. PG 6-0 165
84 Kaleb Tarczewski Arizona Fr. C 7-0 245
88 Kenny Boynton Florida Sr. SG 6-2 190
93 James Southerland Syracuse Sr. SF 6-7 215
94 Aaron Craft Ohio State Jr. PG 6-2 195
96 Keith Appling Michigan State Jr. PG 6-1 180
100 Kenny Kadji Miami Sr. PF 6-10 240