MICHIGAN #1 in B1G (sagarin computer rank)

Submitted by michelin on October 14th, 2012 at 10:46 AM

MIchigan is the top team in the B1G according to The Sagarin poll.  Below I list the PREDICTOR ratings--which are the best in actually predicting game outcomes.  I also list the overall national rank according to these ratings.*

 

1. Michigan  (#13 overall, rating 85.33)

2. Ohio (#18 overall, rating 83.15) INELIGIBLE for postseason

3. Neb (#23, rating 81.74)

4. Wisconsin (#27, rating 79.69)

5. PSU (#28, 79.64) ALSO INELIGIBLE for postseason

6. MSU (#36. 77.2)

 

One predicts the outcome of future games by subtracting the two Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings (with + or -3 for Home Field).  So, if we play Wisc in INDY for the B1G title, we should be favored by 5-6 points.  If Ohio were not ineligible and Michigan played them in INDY, UM would beat Ohio.   In Columbus, the game would be essentially a tossup (less than a one point margin).   Also, Michigan would be favored over MSU by 8 points on a neutral field and  by 11 points this coming week in Ann Arbor (+3 for home field).

I don't know what the Vegas point spread is, but I suspect that it will be smaller, since UM-MSU is a rivalry game.

 

*Michigan also is #1 when Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings are averaged with the ELO-CHESS ratings.  The latter do not consider point margins and are not as good in predicting actual game outcomes.  Regrettably, the overall BCS computer rankings use  the ELO-CHESS Sagarin ratings--as well as other computer polls that often overweigh WL records and underweigh SOS.  So, we will not do as well when the BCS computer rankings come out.  However, I do not believe that any of these alternative ranks has been shown to do as well as the Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings in forecasting actual game outcomes.  And that's what's important in predicting the rest of the UM season.

 

 

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Comments

michelin

October 14th, 2012 at 11:20 AM ^

are you talking about?  The post makes many different points.

One thing that did surprise me is that--considering only the top 3 teams in both B1G divisions--there is a degree of parity.  Three teams from each division are in the top six and the sum of their ranks only slightly favors the UM-NEB-MSU division over OH-WISC-PSU.

I suspect, however, that when you consider the bottom teams in each division also, the LEGENDS will be much better.

One Inch Woody…

October 14th, 2012 at 11:32 AM ^

The Big 10 is undoubtedly better than the ACC and the Big East. It is also marginally better than the Pac 12 (the Big 10 losses to Pac 12 opponents in the non-conference portion were AWAY games, and the teams hadn't settled in yet with O'Brien at QB for Wisco and Nebraska's offense/defense in limbo). 

I would say that the Big 10 is also marginally worse than the Big 12 ... as we saw with WVU yesterday, sometimes their offenses can seem overinflated because everyone just sucks at defense in that league.

... So.. 3rd best conference, which given the coaching changes and draft losses/graduation is not bad at all.

EGD

October 14th, 2012 at 12:22 PM ^

I watch a fair amount of Pac-12 football and would have to agree that the Pac is better this season.  That's usually not the case, but here's how I would compare the leagues:

The top two teams in the Pac-12 are Oregon & USC; they are better than the top two teams in the B1G (UM & Ohio).

For the next tier of the Pac-12, I would include Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, ASU, and UCLA.  I would call that group comparable, if not slightly better, than the second tier of the B1G, which includes Wisconsin, Nebraska, Northwestern, and probably MSU (on a good day).

On the third, sort of "could upset somebody but generally not very good" tier of the Pac-12, you have teams like Arizona, Utah, Cal.  In the B1G, that tier includes Iowa, Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue.  That level is basically a wash--though the B1G seems to have more teams hovering around that low level than the Pac-12 does.

For doormats, the Pac has Colorado and WSU.  The B1G has Illinois and IU.  Those teams are pretty analogous.

 

outwest

October 14th, 2012 at 1:55 PM ^

Ap 25 conference comparison 

2) Oregon                                               7) Ohio

8) Oregon State                                   23) Michigan

11) USC

22) Stanford

Others recieving votes

     ASU                                                    Northwestern 

     Washington                                       Wisc

     Arizona                                              Nebraska

                                                                 Penn State

 

I would take any of the ranked Pac 12 teams over any ranked B1G teams at this point in a head to head.

LSAClassOf2000

October 14th, 2012 at 11:16 AM ^

The average Predictor for the Big Ten is 75.49, which would be good for the low 40s in terms of a rank if they were a team unto themselves. The two teams closest to that average would be Northwestern and Iowa. It's interesting that many talked about the Legends division being a three-way race between Nebraska, Michigan and MSU in August and these are the three teams in the Legends sitting above the conference average. Subtracting the ineligible members of the Leaders, only Wisconsin sits above the conference average. It is interesting that things are shaping up to fall in line with most predictions thus far. 

michelin

October 14th, 2012 at 12:50 PM ^

Interestingly, NEB on the road now looks like the biggest hurdle we face in getting to INDY.  (according to Sagain, we should be favored there by a bit less than one point).   However, if we jump that hurdle, the merely "average" Iowa team--which just beat MSU--may  be the only obstacle UM faces in getting to INDY--the Ohio game could turn out to be irrelevant to the conference race.

In any case, as you suggest, the season is starting to make a lot more sense. 

Michigan too is making more sense.

or

As John Borton said on Rivals today:

 

"This, increasingly, is Michigan."

Wolverine Devotee

October 14th, 2012 at 2:04 PM ^

100 years from now, people are going to laugh at us and call us bumbling retards for using computers to solve who the champion is. Of course, they'll have a 64 team playoff by then.