The diary on coins landing tails got me wondering where is our Iowa vs. OSU type moment since upsets seem like fairly random events. I don't follow odds, so I settled on this site for some historical information, and ran the following query for several Big Ten teams:
"You selected XXXXX against anyone during the regular or post season at any location over 30 games as an underdog of 1 to 60 points"
Unfortunately the results were about what I expected
Team Record as underdog since start of 2012 season Michigan 1-18 (Harbaugh is 0-5) Iowa 7-19 Penn State 9-16 MSU 11-9 Northwestern 13-17 since 10/5/13 Rutgers 5-25 since 10/25/14 Wisconsin 5-9 Ohio State 6-0
Michigan is clearly an outlier here and it suggests that this program simply doesn't win as an underdog. Is this a culutral thing? Luck thing? OP bad at statistics thing?
Edit: added OSU at 6-0 since I was counting from the start of the 2012 regular season. I had excluded the 2011 postseason.
Edit: Michigan's one win was against Northwestern in Nov 2013.