Michigan/'Bama Super Regional Softball Preview
The Michigan Softball team travels to the Great State of Alabama to play the Tide in the softball Super Regional this Thursday and Friday. The dates and times are set by ESPN.
The Super Regional are basically a best 2 out of 3. These games are typically played on consecutive days with the "if game" played on the second day after game #2.
Conventional wisdom would indicate that ‘Bama is a hands-down better team. Now, at first glance, I would agree. Alabama has a better record while playing in a better conference. ‘Bama’s non-conference schedule is about the same as ours. So overall one would think that ‘Bama should blow us out of the Great State of Alabama.
Now, let’s break it down and look at it piece by piece. There are a few items that might get you to re-think your initial opinion. Let’s take a look at the numbers and the intangibles.
COACHING STAFF & FACILITIES: Huge Advantage Michigan
Coach Hutch is an underrated Coach. She is conservative when she needs to be and aggressive when she needs to be. I really enjoy watching her coach. I learn something every time.
RECORD vs COMMON OPPONENTS: Advantage ‘Bama
We have 4 common opponents: LSU, Maryland, UMass and Mississippi State. We beat LSU and ‘Bama went 2-1. We both played Maryland once: we lost 2-1 and ‘Bama mercied them 19-1. UMass was another common opponent. This is the game where we just laid an egg and lost 1-0. ‘Bama won 8-0. The last common opponent was Mississippi State. We beat then once and ‘Bama beat them 3 times. So overall, 'Bama has been more successful.
HITTING: Advantage ‘Bama
‘Bama has 8 starters that is hitting above .300. ‘Bama’s top 2 batters are Jennifer Fenton at .381 and Cassie Reilly-Boccia at .353.
We have 6 players hitting at or above .300. Our top 2 batters are Sara at .357 and Chiddy at .351.
This data is somewhat skewed as well. We started off very slow at the plate. It has only been the last 10 games or so that we really started hitting. So I gave a slight advantage to ‘Bama although I would not be surprised if we out hit them. We are definitely swinging the hot bat.
PITCHING: EVEN
Now this is an area where conventional wisdom is challenged. I bet there are some on this board that will disagree with me on this point and they would have some valid points. ‘Bama has all-universe pitcher Jackie Traina. Traina’s numbers are: ERA 1.68 WHIP 1.07; K/BB: 3.8:1. We have Freshmen Phenom; Haylie Wagner. Haylie’s numbers are: ERA 1.46; WHIP .99; K/BB: 3.3:1
Traina is a sophomore this year. She has impressive numbers, no question about it. Her WHIP and K/BB ratio are very good. Wagner has a better ERA though. Once you break down the data, it appears that the faster Traina gets batters to swing at questionable pitches. The key here is for us to be patient at the plate. Traina gets most of her Ks off the rise ball. The rise ball is a difficult pitch to lay off. The ball appears to the batter of being chest-high; but as it reaches the batter, it climbs above the chin. Most risers not swung at are called balls for being too high.
Wagner’s numbers are somewhat skewed. She is pitching much better the last half of the season compared to the first half. This is common for Freshmen pitchers. She is not the same pitcher now as she was in February and March.
Sara is a much better #1B pitcher than ‘Bama’s #2 Leslie Jury. Jury is the traditional backup: someone to give you innings when the #1 needs a break. Our pitching depth is definitely an advantage.
So overall I rate the pitching as EVEN. Traina is faster and had better numbers than Haylie. However, Haylie’s numbers are skewed. We have better depth as well.
DEFENSE: Slight Advantage Michigan
Here is where the conventional wisdom can get tricky. If you look at just the raw numbers, someone could draw the conclusion that ‘Bama has the slight advantage. The error totals for both teams are about equal for both teams. The number of twisted DP are about equal too: ‘Bama has 21 DP compared to 20 for us. Where we have the advantage is with Coaching. Our girls will surely “out-think” ‘Bama. That is not to say that ‘Bama Players are not smart, because they are. However, our kids don't make many mental mistakes.
My point is simple. We make decisions quicker. This past weekend in Louisville we twisted 3, count them 3 double plays. I can could on one had where my teams have twisted 2 DP’s in a game, let alone a 5-4-3 DP. Another point is that we are aggressive with getting the lead runner. Steph was successful 3 times in getting the lead runner off a bunt. Most players just get the out at first.
KEYS FOR A MICHIGAN VICTORY
1) BE PATIENT: We need to be patient at the plate. We cannot chase the high stuff and take ourselves out of the game. We can certainly hit Traina but we need to have good pitch selection. Our top 3 need to outperform their top 3. I would not be surprised if we took the first pitch the first time through the order.
2) PLAY ERROR FREE: This weekend we had a few players that did not have their best games. This needs to improve. ‘Bama will certainly take advantage of errors. Alabama’s best inning is by far the 1st inning. They scored 103 runs this year in the first inning. As the game wears on, they produce less runs per inning. So we have to stop the top of the order in the first inning. That is going to be a tough order even if we play error free.
3) KEEP ALABAMA TO 3 OR LESS RUNS: Alabama is 1-5 when they score 3 or less runs. They will give up their fair share of runs. If we try to get into a slugfest, we lose. Traina is a good pitcher especially with a lead.
4) PITCHING: This is an over-statement but its true. We need to at least pitch as well as Traina. We certainly have the tools to accomplish this. Haylie curve ball is lights out. If she is on, book your ticket to Oklahoma City. If Haylie struggles, lets hope the D picks her up.
I will not make a prediction until game-time. This Super is going to be the most interesting that is for sure. We are the dogs, no doubt about it…..on paper. No one is taking us seriously. I hope ‘Bama is looking ahead and not at the task at hand.
Thanks, it would be awesome if Michgan could advance past Alabama but it will be a tall order. I wish the softball team all the best in these games.
and I mean REALLY good. It willn certainly be a great series. But we are good enough to beat anyone right now. I think there is room for improvement too.
Not counting them as a common opponent?
for all the hard work you put in to the softball team. I dont follow them as much as I should but your posts and expert insight keep me interested in the team.
Thanks again for allyour time and effort.
is no problem. I am still an active softball coach for a "gold" level team in the SE Michigan area. I really enjoy following the Michigan SB team. I get a little irked that Coach Hutch does not get the National Love that she deserves.
I agree that she doesn't get the recognition that she deserves. IMO, it's unbeleivably harder to create a softball powerhouse in the Midwest than in the talent rich West and climate friendly South.
I would be interested in your opinion. While we are at it, lets get megangoblue in on the discussion.
Thanks again for this!
Please help me understand what the WHIP stat is?
Thanks again!
Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched
MGB is making some food right now, but she has a couple things to say and will most likely get on in the next little bit here. I don't have any special insight (especially since I seem to be working for every M game this postseason), but I did see Alabama play early in the year and they've a very, very good team.
Traina's WHIP is also around 1 this year. She gave up 153 hits and 79 walks in 233 innings. She gave up 0.67 hits per inning.
and dropped third strike to the WHIP for softball. MLB does not add that statistic into the formula.
Any time a runner gets on base in softball, there is the potential to score much easier than in baseball (IMO)
No problem. I really enjoy softball and there are only a handful of us on the board anyway.
Besides, I like "talking" to 39 year olds.
When Hutch coached Michigan to a win over Kat Osterman she was able to finally get her batters to wait for strikes. A pitch is just a pitch when it has to come through the zone. Michigan did not lay off the rise too well in game one with Louisville, though. I think Michigan will have to win the first two games. A double-header on Friday will make me nervous because I think Traina can go all 14 innings. 94 degrees is the forecast for Tuscaloosa on Friday. ( I keep wanting to say "we", but I'll try to stick with Michigan.)
This is the most difficult point in coaching. Earlier in the year, we were taking way too many called third strikes. Im sure Hutch was pulling her hair out as any coach would.
JUST SWING THE BAT! Right? When a team is in a slump and taking called third strikes, coaches want swings.
Then batters get over zealous and start swinging at cheese. This is where a good pitcher can out pitch you. If Traina smells blood she will not throw a single strike. We will be swinging out of our shoes.
But if we can be patient, Traina will have to throw a strike.
This is where the plate ump can dictate the outcome, to some degree. In the Louisville game he seemed to surprise the Michigan batters with how high the zone was. After a couple of called 3rd strikes they had little choice but to hit those pop ups. If that is the pitcher's strength, and that is how the strikes are called, Hutch better be working with them on their tomahawk strokes. I prefer a low, wide zone, personally.
This is an awesome point. The lower half of the strike zone is typically not a problem for umpires. Its the upper half that frustrates coaches.
We need an umpire that has a reasonable upper strike zone rather than a "nose to toes" type strike zone.
I was encouraged by how Chidester adjusted to the outside pitches. At the end of the year it seemed like she was hitting the ball hard but yanking everything foul. All of the hits she got on Sunday went up the middle including the line drive to center that the center fielder almost played into a double.
at the plate. She would have batted over .400 if she didnt get a shitty start this year.
Michigan wins it in 3 games.
From your lips to your favorite deity's ear!
One thing you didn't mention in your summary is team speed. In general, the SEC has faster players than the BIG. Our fastest players - Doyle, Evans, and Sappenfield - are all slower than Alabama's two fastest players. In addition, Hutch is a bit old school and bunts rather than letting her players steal. And, we don't even bunt all that well, turning a bunt into a fielder's choice more often than we shold.I Nonetheless, I beleive Alabama has two players with 40+ steal attempts.
Bottom line is that team speed means our defense has to be even better/more composed than it was vs Louisville. KP at 3rd base is a godsend. She is mobile and has a great arm. We'll need her to have the same good defense she had last weekend. She wants the ball so let's hope she gets it.
On a message board, Alabama folks talked about their troubles with lefties. Hope that is true. They have also struggled with defense occasionally. Let's hope that is also true.
UM has nothing to lose. We're a 20+ seed going in to play the #2 seed. We should be loose. Pressing never helps. We had 2 walk-offs in the regional. The team knows they can come from behind.
Go Blue.
I did not mention it because I do not have any data for the Bama girls. I did put a stop watch to our kids. Hutch has not been aggressive on the base paths the last 10 games or so. But lets not forget about Crummy and Virgil.
I will agree that Bama probably has better speed at the top but not by much. Bree, Colie and Lyndsay are quick enough to get a steal or two.
I hinted it by saying the 103 runs scored inthe 1st inning. I would not be surprised if Bama won the toss and took visitors to get to bat first.
So Let me add: Team Speed: Slight Advantage Bama
Here are comparables for both teams:
Alabama definitely has the edge on speed, but it is less critical if they speedsters don't get on base.
Our pinch runners are fast, but mostly in comparison to the folks they replace. They aren't SEC-fast.
so I will make my prediction.
Game 1: Bama 6 Mich 3
Game 2: Mich 4 Bama 3
Game 3 Mich 4 Bama 2
Michigan heads to Oklahoma City.
I don't see Michigan winning 2 Friday games, so if they lose game one it may be over. I'll go further: we may know how it will go when the strike zone is established after Evans and Sappingfield's first at-bats.
In the televised game vs. Georgia, the Bulldogs stole game one when a true lefty freshman that Alabama had not seen before, led off the game with a shocker of a home run. Alabama must have assumed that she was a slapper and Traina did not pitch to her as she might have if she had known that she was actually their #3 batter.
Michigan will definitely need to bring their best game in order to beat Alabama. One of the things you didn't mention is the difference between experience and age in the two teams. Alabama is led by seniors and juniors who have all been in this spot before and know how to handle it and how to win. On the other side, Michigan is made up primarily of freshman and sophomores (including freshman in some key positions), who have never been to a Super Regional. So I think that if Michigan wants to win, they need to play like they've been there before -- loose and confident.
Also, just wanted to say how surprised I am with the lack of aggression on the bases by Michigan. They only have 50 steal attempts, compared to Alabama's 159.
we all were wondering when you would give your expert opinion.
I agree. Coach has not been aggressive much the last half of the season. I cant figure that one out. I hope she gets a little more aggressive in Bama.