Mich vs nd line

Submitted by UofMWillard on September 6th, 2011 at 4:27 PM
How are they favored by 3.5? I get that they got 508 yards, but they lost to a sub-standard team at home. Time to place some bets!!!

Comments

michgoblue

September 6th, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^

Good thing that you are not a betting man.  If we win, it will not be by 10 points or so.  ND is a talented team.  We are still adjusting to a new system.  While I think that we can win this one, let's keep the expectations reasonable.

michgoblue

September 6th, 2011 at 4:32 PM ^

I posted this in the "Reese to start" thread:

 

"Just curious:  How does Vegas have us as underdogs in this one?  We return our entire team, they lose a few players, and we beat them last year.  Also, the overwhelming sentiment is that the nw coaching staff (let's exclude RR from the discussion - just the staff) is going to do a much better job on D and special teams than the old staff.  So, how are we underdogs?"

I suppose from a pure talent perspective - our team is primarily composed of 3* players, where as ND is chock full of Charlie Weis' 4-5* talent, but that talent didn't look so good in their opener, AND they are now switching to the QB that in spring and summer camp couldn't surpass the QB who is being benched. 

WolvinLA2

September 6th, 2011 at 4:43 PM ^

I hate it when people say our team is all three star players. Four star starters include:

Craig Roh
Mike Martin
RVB
Kenny Demens
Cam Gordon
Kevin Koger
Taylor Lewan
The Barnum/Schofield combo
Junior Hemingway
Roy Roundtree
Fitzgerald Toussaint
Denard Robinson

That's 12 of 22. Its not the whole line up, but it's better than half. I bet ND isn't too much higher than that.

PurpleStuff

September 6th, 2011 at 5:12 PM ^

Gallon, Moore, Shaw, Mealer, Campbell (5-star), Fitzgerald, Beyer, and M. Robinson all played yesterday as well.

That is 21 guys.  Hit up the special teams and you'll find a few more (Countess, Washington).

And I'll take Omameh vs. Te'o, Molk vs. overrated d-line, and Kovacs vs. Tommy Rees' facemask all day, regardless of recruiting ranking.

 

ChiCityWolverine

September 6th, 2011 at 5:22 PM ^

Most of that list is full of B1G level starters and I'd add Molk as a 4* I believe. Our issue is not overall talent level, it's obviously poor depth at many key positions in addition to a few weak positions. 

A quick look at past classes shows a slew of 4* (and unfortuneately 5*) burnouts for various reasons. I imagine the same can be said about ND considering they are still struggling to field a good team.

And anyways, why don't we ask Kovacs what he thinks about recruiting rankings?

michgoblue

September 6th, 2011 at 5:45 PM ^

I don't disagree that we have very talented players on this team, but from a pure talent perspective (if recruiting rankings matter), ND is the more talented team. 

That's my only point.  Also, it's not 12 of 22.  It's 12 of 44, because you have to look at the 2-deep.  In modern football, players rotate frequently.  So, while Taylor Lewan may be a 4-star talent, his back-up is not.  Looking back at ND's past 4 classes, they are literally stacked with 4 and 5 star talent.  In both their starters and their back-ups. 

No criticism of our team, but we lost a lot of talent over the years to attrition and other issues, whereas ND has kept much of Weis' impressive recruiting haul.

PurpleStuff

September 6th, 2011 at 6:05 PM ^

11 of 20 who played on offense.  8 of 21 on defense.  So 19 of 41, not 12 of 44.

And that is with two 4-star starters missing the game (Barnum and Gordon).  And this doesn't count guys like Molk and Omameh who are clearly 4-star caliber players.

The backup quarterback is a 4-star guy.  The 6th and 7th o-linemen are 4-star guys.  The third wideout is a 4-star guy.  The backup running back is a 4-star senior.  The backup middle linebacker is a 4-star senior.  The fifth or sixth guy on the field in the secondary is a 4-star guy (Robinson).  So is the next guy (probably Countess).  The third defensive tackle is a 5-star guy.  None of them are true freshmen (save Countess) and most have decent age/experience.

We have an extremely strong roster this year.  People just haven't realized it yet because they mistakenly think Rodriguez sucked at recruiting and don't realize we've been playing with one hand tied behind our back the last few years in terms of playing underclassmen and dealing with major holes in the roster.  This team is going to crush people.

 

MileHighWolverine

September 6th, 2011 at 6:41 PM ^

I generally find your comments to be pretty on point but "this team is going to crush people" is hard for me to rationalize.  Especially when the D couldn't line up correctly on the first drive and our front line got very little pressure on the QB.  ND's O-line and D-line are very different from WMU's and I, for one, am very nervous about this game and the following ones as well:

1. Neb

2. OSU

3. MSU'ish

4. PSU

Tell me I am wrong - please.

PurpleStuff

September 6th, 2011 at 7:08 PM ^

For starters, I can guarantee we won't lose to PSU in the regular season.  I also doubt we will have trouble getting lined up simply because we did in the very first drive of the season against a team going a little out of its way to confuse us (unbalanced, spread look with some no huddle and what not). 

Aside from those communication issues early, the players on defense played 1000% better than last year.  WMU's longest completion went for 20 yards (with a QB and a WR who are probably NFL draft picks, or at least camp invites at minimum).  Last year BGSU's backup QB hit us for a 70+ yard TD.  UCONN hit us for a 47 yard gain through the air and probably would have bested that mark if they hadn't dropped a half dozen passes.  UMASS marched up and down the field unimpeded.

WMU had two good players play a really good game and it wasn't enough to outscore our defense.  Their second leading receiver had 22 yards.  They weren't dropping balls and Carder wasn't missing open guys either.  And this is without a starting linebacker who was probably our biggest playmaker on defense last year (led team in INT, PBU, FR, and scored a TD) and without our top corner for most of the game (both of whom should play from here on out).  We have made an enormous leap in the secondary.

The same thing has happened at the running back position.  With Fitz, Shaw, and Smith healthy this is the best offense in the country.  A much better defense and an even better offense is a recipe for lots of success, IMO.

I think if this team can take care of business against ND and stays relatively healthy that we could very well be 10-0 going into the home stretch.  At that point you are talking about a very special season, no matter what happens the rest of the way.

maizenbluenc

September 6th, 2011 at 7:39 PM ^

bloody hot early, and there was a lot of rotation adding tothe confusion. I re-watched the game today, and noticed guys like Jibreel Black, and Jake Ryan making mistakes on plays where Western had more successful plays.

if it is cooler this Saturday night (and it should be), there should be less rotation, thus more experience on the field. Plus Cam Gordon will be back, and Troy.

It will be interesting to see hat a full game looks like.

WolvinLA2

September 6th, 2011 at 7:33 PM ^

Thank you.  This team is honestly littered with talent.  Not only do we have a lot of guru approved guys, but RR, for all of his faults, was pretty good at recognizing 3-star guys who can play.  Vincent Smith, Omameh, Jibreel Black, Jake Ryan, Courtney Avery, Carvin Johnson and Thomas Gordon all fell short of 4 stars (at least on Rivals) but have proven to be guys that can play football at a high level.  You could throw Dileo in there as well.

Almost all of those guys would start on most teams in the league, and Smith and Omameh are the only upperclassmen.

blue note

September 6th, 2011 at 5:00 PM ^

"we beat them last year"

I know this may come as a shock to some people, but believe it or not, the better team does not win every football game.

edit: not saying we aren't the better team this year, just saying last year's game is a lot less relevant than returning starters/the entirety of last year/last week's game, etc.

Erik_in_Dayton

September 6th, 2011 at 4:34 PM ^

both games had really important, random moments.  A few bounces of the football go differently and (arguably) ND beats USF and (arguably) Michigan is in a closer game with WMU. 

HAIL-YEA

September 6th, 2011 at 8:22 PM ^

Stop talking about money you are embarassing yourself. There are plenty of successful people who come to this board, you are the only one I have seen constantly bringing up money.  You want us to be happy about your money then cut a check with 5 0's to the athletic department, show us some proof..and I promise you will get some respect.

jamiemac

September 6th, 2011 at 4:35 PM ^

ND has been favored like all summer in this game. This shouldnt be new news to anyone

Also: USF is sub standard?

I'd take them to beat Michigan.......

PurpleStuff

September 6th, 2011 at 4:45 PM ^

Last year's Michigan team blew out the Big East champions.  We are better at pretty much every single position on the field this year. 

Consider yourself fortunate the two teams don't play so you can keep your money.

mackbru

September 6th, 2011 at 5:02 PM ^

Well, last year ND ran wild on M until Crist went down and was replaced by QBs who had never thrown a pass. And still M won by a thread. And now Rees is much more experienced. 

bklein09

September 6th, 2011 at 5:13 PM ^

Hmmm, it's hard to beleive that ND "ran wild" on us last year when they only scored 24 points.

Plus 7 of those came at the end of the game on the Rudolph pass.

So again, I don't think Crist an ND ran wild on us, unless you count one or two decent drives as running wild. 

Now what Denard did? That was running wild!

 

sheepdog

September 6th, 2011 at 5:29 PM ^

I said ND was overrated and predicted ND would go 8-5 here, and didnt expect the loss to S. Florida.  Looks like they are well on their way to 8-5 or worse.  I will take Michigan to cover and win this game.

Also, a quote from Bleacher Report (yes I know...), but hey its positive about Michigan:

"Home underdogs are always worth a look, and when the home underdog has a big edge at quarterback, momentum on their side, a massive home-field advantage and past success against the opponent, it’s hard to ignore them.

Michigan will win this one outright."

smotheringD

September 6th, 2011 at 5:55 PM ^

ND's going to be really fired up after losing last week.

It's in our house.

ND's had 1 season and 2 off seasons to implement new systems

We've had 1 off season and almost 3 quarters.

We looked really confused on defense on that first drive last week.

We beat them last year.

I think nationally most betters can't believe our defense has improved that much over last year (especially if they saw that first drive Saturday) pushing the spread higher.

I think it's a pick 'em...take the points.