MGoQuestion: Can Michigan win the 2017 NCAA Tournament?

Submitted by ThatGuyCeci on March 13th, 2017 at 1:34 PM

Now that the field of 68 is set, how does everyone feel about Michigan's possible chances of making a deep run? Realistically, I think this team can make the Final Four and possibly even the final game.  I think Duke will make it from the other side and I'm not sure we'd have enough to beat them in their current state.  However, I don't think our draw is too terribly difficult considering the 2 seeds we could have drawn (Duke, Kentucky, Arizona), and Oregon lost a starter for the year recently. According to KenPom, Kansas is the worst 1 seed in the field.. what say you?

Comments

DualThreat

March 13th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^

Accordingy to Spartan fans, they would say a -6 percent chance of winning. (Which is 3-9.)

We all know, of course, that the total games played was 12, so the correct percentage from 3-9 is 3 out of 12, or 3/12, or 25%.

So, yeah, they have a good chance.

In sports other than football and math.

stephenrjking

March 13th, 2017 at 1:38 PM ^

Not likely at all. I think there's a vague chance at the Final Four; in fact, I think the second weekend, were we to make it, will be easier to navigate than the first. 

But at some point we are going to run into a team that does everything we can do with better players. Walton may ensure that this doesn't happen until deeper in the tournament, but it's going to happen.

DrMantisToboggan

March 13th, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^

Obviously 68 teams could win the tournament. Historically, the lowest seed to win the whole thing has been an 8, so it may be more realistic to say that about the top 32 teams have a chance. Michigan is obviously in the realm of possibilities. 

aleng

March 13th, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^

If they score more points than each of the teams they play (when they play them), then I really like their chances of winning it all!

bluenectarine

March 13th, 2017 at 2:45 PM ^

My bank wouldn't let me deposit (its an international goofy site), even though I had before. I was going to bet $100 and if we won, I would have gotten $15,000!...I just deposited $100, so now I will get $2500...not bad actually and since Mobileye got sold today...that $100 is house money all day!

Michifornia

March 13th, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^

Of course they CAN.  But will they?  Would take an incredible effort and some luck.  You never know which player or which team will get hot during the tournament.  That's what makes it so fun.  They can play great but run into someone playing greater.  Or they could just have a bad shooting day.  No one can take away what they've accomplished this season.

Hoping for a tourney run, but it will be tough.  At this point no matter when they get knocked out, mad props for these guys.  And if everything falls into place and they can get to the Final Four or better, wouldn't shock me.

These guys deserve continued success.  But even a loss can't take away from an incredibly SUCCESSFUL season.  LET THE MADNESS BEGIN!!

GO BLUE!!

Zeke21

March 13th, 2017 at 1:47 PM ^

With this team, we will tough to beat.  I'd say we are only one player short.  unfortunately,

Wilt passed away several years ago....go blue

My name ... is Tim

March 13th, 2017 at 1:52 PM ^

This team has developed to the point where they can beat anybody on any given night, but the level of competition in the NCAA tournament is just much more difficult than the B1G tourney, and it requires 6 games to win it, not 4. I just don't see this team winning more than 4 given the odds.

While Beilein has turned this team into one no one wants to play, at the end of the day, this is a team with 1-2 NBA players (non-lottery), at best. In order to win a championship they will have to beat ~3 teams that feature 3-4+ NBA guys (featuring a lottery guy or two). That's VERY tough to do. During the NCG-Elite 8 run, we were trotting out 5 NBA guys. I think you'll find most championship teams look more like that than what we're rolling with this year, sadly.

BornInAA

March 13th, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^

Correct response.

None of the B1G teams have a deep team this year.

The elite teams have size, length and shooters at every position including the bench.

If you have a deep team, you can afford to hack at our good players.

Stringer Bell

March 13th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^

Speaking of our first round opponent, they're ranked higher than MSU in literally every ranking system known to mankind, have a better record in a tougher conference yet somehow they're a 10 seed while MSU is a 9? The Hollis effect is real.

I Love Lamp

March 13th, 2017 at 2:50 PM ^

In placing us in the 2014 bracket of death, while msu coasted into the elite 8, going down to eventual champ, 7 seeded UConn. Now while we can't necessarily bitch about him putting us in a much tougher bracket this year, we can certainly complain that we may have the toughest opening weekend out there.

I'm just glad the fucker is gone from the committee after this year.

MC5-95

March 13th, 2017 at 2:01 PM ^

I think there's a small chance to reach the Final Four, but anything beyond that is unlikely. In order to make the championship game again, I think there'd have to be mammoth upsets in the South or else we'd be likely to face UNC or Kentucky, which seems too steep a mountain to climb.

WestSider

March 13th, 2017 at 2:02 PM ^

incredible bounce from past successes. I am hoping for the worst for Izzo-troll-boy, and for Hollis, who seems like a real smarmy AD to me. Oh, I'll just thrown in the football program on the burn pile too. F msu

GoBlueinEugene

March 13th, 2017 at 2:04 PM ^

Familiarity bias. I will choose Michigan to win it all in one of my brackets, but I can see the logic of choosing Okla St. over Michigan. A 10 over a 7 upset is not at all unlikely, Michigan may be gassed, OSU's #1 Kenpom offense lights it up which covers up bad defense, etc. 

#7 UConn did it in 2014. Just win six games. Anything can happen. 

Go Blue

Moonlight Graham

March 13th, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^

UConn. Both were low (9 and 7) seeds led by senior point guards (Kemba and Shabazz), and made it to the finals of their conference tournament (won Big East in '11, and lost American title game). I'm not sure either of those teams was necessarily more talented than Michigan this year, they both just got on a roll in their conference tourney and kept going. 

These are the types of thoughts we are allowed to have on Monday of the week of Round 1. 

Perkis-Size Me

March 13th, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^

Sure its possible, but I'm not getting my hopes up. I think this team can play with anyone on when its on its game, but let's say we managed to somehow, someway make the title game. You're more than likely going to meet a Duke or a Villanova on the other side. I'm not entirely sure that even on our best night, we'd be able to beat those guys. We'd have to play a flawless game, and they'd have to make some game-defining mistakes. 

If Michigan managed to win it all this year, it would go down as probably one of the most improbable runs, if not the most improbable run, in college basketball history. You're going to have to beat a slew of bluebloods to ascend to that mountaintop. Teams full of blue chip lottery picks.

It can happen, but I'd sleep on it. 

lhglrkwg

March 13th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^

I could see Michigan getting to the Elite 8. We could beat Louisville and the other half isn't as terrible with Oregon losing that guy for the season. I think we are capable of beating anyone in the field of 68. Winning 6 games in a row is a whole other story.

bluebyyou

March 13th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^

The way we are playing over the last month is very different than much of what went on earlier in the season.  Should the level of play continue, good things can happen, but it is a daunting first weekend.  If we get by Louisville, all bets are off.

Magnus

March 13th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^

I don't think Michigan has a realistic chance to win it. There are some holes and inconsistencies. Unfortunately, we've been riding a hot streak, which came at a great time...but you can't count on some of these guys every game. Zak Irvin is a guy who could go out and have a really cold game, for example. And Wagner getting into foul trouble could be very problematic.

ReegsShannon

March 13th, 2017 at 3:06 PM ^

Strong disagree. Michigan has been playing like an elite team for 15-16 games now.

They won the Big Ten Tournament despite some poor/mediocre shooting performances versus Purdue and Minnesota and are blowing out teams left and right.

This isn't a hot streak or a fluke.